This morning John Kerry made a sweeping statement on Face The Nation.
You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text.
Oh really Mr. Secretary? What about Iraq and those WMDs that never turned up. Do you remember when your predecessor Gen. Powell went before the Security Council with his dog and pony show? That all happened in the 21st C.
It doesn't seem like an exaggeration to say that the world is facing a similar international security crisis as Putin is establishing a de facto occupation of Crimea and is threatening a broader invasion of other parts of Ukraine. The US and the UK are trying to claim the moral high ground in this confrontation. Yet, how can they expect the rest of the world to believe that Putin's position is fundamentally different than their actions in Iraq. The interests of Russia and Ukraine are more intertwined than those of the US and UK were with Iraq.
On Daily Kos we are accustomed to viewing events from inside the prism of US domestic politics. Iraq was Bush's war not Obama's. Obama disengaged from the worn out quagmire. However, the rest of the world is unlikely to see it that way. Iraq was America's war with Britain going along as the pet poodle. The US government under the Obama administration has not renounced that invasion nor taken a position that it would never do such a thing again. The Bush doctrine remains in the lexicon of US foreign policy.
When Bush had to deal with Putin's invasion of Georgia in 2008, he found that he had little in the way of options for forcing Russia to do his bidding.
Making Russia Pay? It’s Not So Simple
Inside the Bush administration, there was discussion of more robust action, like bombing the Roki Tunnel to block Russian troops or providing Georgia with Stinger antiaircraft missiles. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice bristled at what she called the “chest beating,” and the national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, urged the president to poll his team to see if anyone recommended sending American troops.
None did, and Mr. Bush was not willing to risk escalation. While Russia stopped short of moving into Tbilisi, it secured the effective independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while leaving troops in areas it was supposed to evacuate under a cease-fire. Within a year or so, Russia’s isolation was over. Mr. Obama took office and tried to improve relations. NATO resumed military contacts in 2009, and the United States revived the civilian nuclear agreement in 2010.
The practical reality seems to be that Obama doesn't have a lot of useful arrows in his quiver. Poland is always eager to get someone else to start a fight with Russia and they want Ukraine in their orbit of influence. However, Germany where the financial and political muscle is located is making much more cautious noises. The economic interest of Germany and much of the rest of central and eastern Europe are very connected with those of Russia. They are in a different situation from the US and UK. They did not make the mistake of backing the invasion of Iraq.
I hope that some sort of compromise similar to that reached in Georgia can be cobbled together in this situation and an all out war between Russia and Ukraine avoided. However, I can't help finding a sharp note of historical irony in the saga.