I had written following excerpts (edited) on 3/9/2011, more than 3 years ago in regards to how oil investments could be effected in Iraq versus another, somewhat unstable, country.
~ “Kurds are in the area spread over Turkey, Iran and oil rich areas of Iraq but has never had their independent government of their history of existence.”
~ “When it comes to Iran, it will be a bigger threat US interest and peace process because of their support to Shiites in Iraq ……the Iranian threat to Sunnis and Kurds are going to increase with their continuing support of Shiites”
~ “However, the biggest problem is likely to arise as soon as USA leaves Iraq…Prior to US enforced balance in Iraqi government, Sunnis enjoyed all the oil wealth from Kurdistan area all the way down to Kuwait. When US leaves Iraq then the area will no longer be as safe or stable….due to everyone wanting those oil resources combined with centuries long ethnic animosities. ….It has a very high chance of things are getting really messy there but the real question is when will USA leave Iraq?”
~ “IMO, the political stability of Iraq versus the other country....there is not much difference. I can say the other country maybe better off because their stability is organic versus the stability in Iraq is due to US forces and as soon as USA leaves the country, the stability will also be out the door. So take your pick... I would take the other country’s potential problems over Iraq's....”
Again those were written for comparison of two oil investment in two different, someone unstable countries. Today, the concerns about Iraq has come to reality. If a person, on the street like I, had somewhat of an idea what was likely to happen after US left Iraq, I am pretty sure the government also had similar expectations. However, the government also knew what they could do is limited. We either commit troops for many years come and continue on failed policies and hope something good will come out or simply let the Iraqis solve their own problems .
Unless the ethnic groups in Iraq find a way to get alone, what outside sources could stabilize would be short lived. IMO, here are what is likely to happen in coming days.
Although, ISIS is in control of the Mosul at the moment, there is a good chance Kurds may and likely will try to take control of it, due to a refinery and being a hub for oil distribution.
Here are some other facts:
~ When USA left, Iraqi government did not want any US troops left behind. They wanted US troops out of Iraq.
~ The reason those cities were lost because the Sunni military had no royalty to Shiite government and when ISIS came, the military left their posts. Otherwise, 800 to 3,000 militants could not take over an area protected by 90,000 US trained military armed with 20 billion dollar US military hardware.
~ Iran has currently send military assistance to the Shiite Maliki government and Shiites are voluntarily signing up for fight in Baghdad, already turning into a civil war.
If the Iraqi military have no loyalty to their own government and they don’t want to fight, there isn’t much USA can do other than sit and wait, let the organic course of events to take its’ place. It is likely this will turn into a long, dragged out civil war.
So, there is a very good chance, Iraq will end up with 3 autonomous regions and our government knows this truth. Kurds in the North, will likely align themselves with Turks and they are our allies. USA’s interest in those areas should still be protected.
Northern Western areas will likely be influenced by Saudi Arabia, (Though currently, ISIS is to the right of Saudi’s and more extreme…but once ISIS is recognized, they will likely to mellow out.) Saudis are our allies but….it is mostly due to economic interest, otherwise, there is no ideological or other socio alignment. What happens in Western Iraq appears that it will have a major impact in Syria. However, Kurd in the North and Shiites in the South, controlling the oil fields, ISIS will likely keep fighting to get a hold of control of some of those oil fields.
Existing Maliki, Shiite government and Shiites in the south are already aligning with Iranians, keeping the control of Southern oil. Too much of Iranian influence is not very good for US interest. USA may call air strikes or support for Iraq under different names,…such as for democracy, helping allies or whatever…but the main reasons will likely be:
~ To keep further Iranian military and economic influence out of Iraq
~ Another reason US is likely to take action against ISIS is to replace them with a more US acceptable form of Sunni autonomy and stop it from spreading to Syria.
US invested between ONE to TWO TRILLION DOLLARS in Iraq with NO RETURNS... Nothing to show for all that economic and human cost….Iraq is a bigger mess than it was, not much sign of democracy either… No WMD’s, no El Qaeda…at lease NOT when we went to Iraq.
Now when Republicans or politicians accuse current administration of misdoing or not doing enough or whatever…. We need to remind everyone, what a HUGE military, economic and political FAILURE Iraqi adventure was, how much it cost to USA. When the same people made those mistakes are asking to do more of the same mistakes,…. we need to ask, what are we going to do it differently this time and how is it going to bring a different outcome then it did previously?
PS: I am still waiting for ONE responsible REPUBLICAN/conservative to take responsibility to what happened in Iraq…We took the bad situation and made it worse.What a disaster it was….and that disaster, nearly bankrupt USA was brought to us by Republican/conservatives.