A Rasmussen poll conducted June 25-26 and a Chism Strategies poll conducted on June 27 had vastly different results in keeping with the tragicomedy of the Republican primary and subsequent run-off campaigns. Though chief clown McDaniel doesn’t figure in the poll results, he is nevertheless still playing a major role in the big picture (someone will surely make a movie of this) by attempting to have Thad Cochran excluded from the ballot for the general election.
Playing the straight guy in the upcoming movie version is Democratic candidate, Travis Childers. At present Rasmussen has him 12 points shy of incumbent Cochran with a 34-46 split. A further 10% prefer some other candidate (presumably ousted candidate McDaniel – tea party voters are an obdurate mob) and 9% are undecided.
Chism Strategies, on the other hand, has Childers a point ahead on 22 with Cochran on 21 and a massive 42% undecided. That looks promising enough on the face of it – until you realize there was one very interesting peculiarity about the Chism poll. They set out to only survey Cochran and McDaniel voters – no Democrats were intentionally included.
Chism put the surprising result down to 22% crossover votes. These may well be an indication of how many McDaniel voters intend to seek revenge on Cochran in November by deliberately voting against him. If this is the case, it’s good news for Childers and there was more good news in this statement from Chism:
"When we asked McDaniel supporters which candidate they would support in the general election, 21% said they would vote for Democrat Travis Childers and another 16% said they would probably not vote at all. Only 22% of McDaniel’s supporters were committed to vote for Cochran in November."
With the local Mississippi media awash with allegations of illegal voting, cheating and vote-buying jostling with McDaniel’s call to Reince Priebus to declare him the primary winner because he had more Republican votes and True The Vote, a conservative poll watching group, filing a lawsuit challenging Thad Cochran's primary victory for relying on black Democratic voters (see
diary by bonch), it’s been a non-stop two-ring circus down Mississippi way.
Though it seems likely that Cochran will retain his place on the ballot, there’s no guarantee given the unlikely surprises this Senate election has already provided. There’s even the very real possibility that, with a clean campaign and McDaniel crossover votes, a Childers win may be the best surprise of all.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~☸~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~