Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium stands apart from most poll analysts in his assertion that the Dems will hold the Senate but the guy has a better record than election guru Nate Silver of "538" fame.
In his article Senate Democrats are outperforming expectations Wang looks at the Senate races in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
He calculates that Dems lead in five of these races (AK, AR, CO, NC, NH), are tied in two (IA, LA) and only behind in two (KS, KY).
What is happening?
Senate Democrats are doing surprisingly well.
“Fundamentals” pull probabilities away from the present.
The present is more sharply focused than the future.
To read what all of that means take a look at Wang's technical report. I know I will be watching this site in the future.