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• SD-Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll in South Dakota will definitely once again have Democrats wondering if their chances might be better if a prominent candidate dropped out of the race—only this time, it's the independent who's holding the Democrat back and not the other way around. In a four-way race, Republican Mike Rounds has a solid, if unspectacular-looking, 39-28 lead on Democrat Rick Weiland, with centrist independent Larry Pressler nipping at Weiland's heels with 25, and conservative independent Gordon Howie at 3.
But Pressler, a former Republican who's migrated leftward since leaving office 20 years ago and has twice endorsed Barack Obama, is definitely hurting Weiland much more than he is Rounds. Fifty-five percent of his supporters say they'd back Weiland if Pressler were not in the race while just 23 percent would go to the Republican. And indeed, in a three-way matchup without Pressler, Rounds leads Weiland by just a thin 44-42 margin. (Howie's vote share isn't quite clear, since he's lumped in with the undecideds.)
These results suggest that South Dakota could be much more competitive if Pressler fades, or better yet, bails altogether. And no, it's not realistic or even sensible to imagine that Weiland might defer to Pressler. Weiland is running a real campaign and has $450,000 in the bank, compared to $750,000 for Rounds. Pressler barely has a tenth of Weiland's stash and is relying almost entirely on earned media and residual name recognition from his time in the Senate.
In other words, Pressler's the Chad Taylor in this situation, so if he's serious about wanting to defeat Rounds, he should be thinking very hard about bowing out and backing Weiland.
Senate:
• KS-Sen: As expected, Democrat Chad Taylor has filed a legal challenge to Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach's refusal to take his name off the November ballot, even though Taylor dropped out of the race last week. Taylor is asking the Kansas Supreme Court to grant an emergency temporary restraining order prohibiting Kobach from putting Taylor's name before voters. A new SurveyUSA poll found that 10 percent of voters would still pull the lever for Taylor, despite questions reminding respondents that he's no longer running.
Meanwhile, buried in a broader piece about Senate races generally, DSCC executive director Guy Cecil says his organization "would not advertise on behalf of" independent Greg Orman, who's become the de facto Democratic candidate. But in the very next breath, Cecil adds, "This race has a long way to develop and it's one we're going to continue to assess as time goes on." So it sounds like D.C. Democrats are playing wait-and-see, and it's also probable that Orman would be better off if an outside group that isn't so closely tied to the Democratic Party helped him out, rather than the DSCC.
• MI-Sen, Gov: PPP's new Michigan poll contains good news for Democrats in both of the state's marquee races. Democratic Rep. Gary Peters is beating Republican Terri Lynn Land 43-36, a slight increase from his 41-36 lead back in late June. As Tom Jensen notes, this matches Peters' biggest-ever advantage, which PPP found at the height of the government shutdown last October.
What's more, Land's favorability rating has cratered while Peters' has remained steady. In December, Land had a positive 34-23 score; now she's underwater at 32-49, a net drop of 28 points. Peters, meanwhile, is at 35-36, little changed on the margins from his 22-21 rating at the end of last year. Land has repeatedly proven herself unready as a candidate—remarkably, she's ducking debates even though she's the one trailing in the polls—and Democratic attacks have evidently hit home. Peters can't relax, but it's grown much harder to suss out a path to victory for Land.
Republican Gov. Rick Snyder has also refused to debate, and while that's a common tactic for incumbents, he may want to reconsider. Snyder's lead on Democrat Mark Schauer stands at a nearly invisible 43-42, little different from the 40-40 tie PPP found in June. But it's the overall polling average that should have Snyder concerned:
The red and blue trendlines are steadily converging, and Schauer now trails by just 2 points, despite Snyder's huge spending advantage. And in a blue state like Michigan, those undecideds aren't going to be especially friendly toward a Republican. Indeed, in PPP's poll, voters who haven't made up their minds split 41-41 between supporting Obama and Romney, and they self-identify as Democrats by a 35-14 margin. What's more, Snyder's job approval rating stands at a weak 43-51 while Schauer is still unknown by a third of the electorate. One of these guys will have an easier time reaching out to undecideds, and it's not the incumbent.
• NC-Sen: The DSCC just dropped a new internal poll of the North Carolina Senate race, courtesy of Garin-Hart-Yang, and they find Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan moving into a 48-45 lead on Republican Thom Tillis. Previously unreleased trendlines showed a 44-44 tie in June, though note that these numbers do not include Libertarian Sean Haugh, who generally takes around 7 to 8 percent of the vote.
But a jump's still a jump, and what's more, Hagan's favorability ratings have improved, too, from 33-42 to 39-40, despite the fact that right-wing groups have spent over $20 million assaulting her. Tillis' net score, meanwhile, hasn't budged, clocking in at 29-36 now versus 22-28 last time. If we've reached a point where attack ads are producing very diminished returns, then Hagan's small but consistent leads in the polls may be very difficult for Republicans to overcome.
• NH-Sen: Oh my. New Hampshire Republican Chris Sununu, son of ex-Gov. John Sununu, introduced Scott Brown at a recent campaign stop, and man oh man was it a train wreck—if that's what you'd call the Lexington Avenue IRT colliding with reactor number four at Chernobyl:
Someone came up and said, "Hey, you know, I'd love to meet Scott." ... He said, "I always thought Scott was kind of a phony from Massachusetts." And I said, you gotta sit down with him, because—he sat down, they had their little conversation, he walked away. You know what he said? He goes, "That guy was—he's not a—he's a phony from New Hampshire that just happened to live in Massachusetts for a little while. He's more New Hampshire than most people we have in New Hampshire."
What more can I say? Just duck and cover.
Gubernatorial:
• FL-Gov: PPP's new Florida poll finds Democrat Charlie Crist moving into a small 42-39 lead over GOP Gov. Rick Scott, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie taking a hefty 8 percent of the vote. That compares with a 42-all tie in June, though back then, PPP didn't ask about Wyllie. However, even if you take him out of the mix now, Crist retains his 3-point lead, edging Scott 44-41.
Wyllie draws equally from both candidates because Scott and Crist are comparably unpopular: Scott's job approval rating is 40-49 while Crist's favorables stand at 40-46. That's actually tremendously good news for Crist, though, because in June, his favorability score was a miserable 32-48, while Scott's approvals are virtually unchanged. That means Crist's standing has somehow rebounded despite an extraordinary spending blitz by Scott that has now topped $20 million.
Perhaps those June numbers were a bit outlier-ish for Crist, but regardless, the fact that Scott's barrage hasn't had its intended effect has to be very heartening for Democrats. Crist was never going to be able to match Scott dollar for dollar—not even close. His only hope was to hunker down and hope the damage from Hurricane Rick wouldn't be fatal, then go on the offensive in the stretch run. Well, here we are.
Meanwhile, the latest installment from SurveyUSA has Scott back on top of Crist, 45-44, with Wyllie at just 3. Two weeks ago, Crist was up 45-43.
• IA-Gov: Loras College's new Iowa poll—the one that put Democrat Bruce Braley up 4 in the Senate race—also finds Republican Gov. Terry Branstad with his largest-ever lead in a public survey this year. That's painful for Democrat Jack Hatch, who trails Branstad 56-34, but it's good news for Braley, since it means that this poll was not unreasonably skewed in the Democratic direction.
• ME-Gov: Rasmussen: Mike Michaud (D): 43, Paul LePage (R-inc): 39, Eliot Cutler (I): 15 (June: 40-40-14).
• NE-Gov: Well, that was quick. Just a day after news reports surfaced that Lt. Gov. Lavon Heidemann's sister had obtained a restraining order against him after he allegedly manhandled her during an argument, Heidemann announced that he's resigning as lieutenant governor and dropping off the ticket headed by Republican gubernatorial nominee Pete Ricketts. Outgoing Gov. Dave Heineman has promised to pick a new lieutenant governor, but Ricketts has no such luxury.
That's because Heidemann's name, which appears jointly with Ricketts', can't be removed from the ballot at this late date. Ricketts did try to name a new running mate on Tuesday, outgoing state Auditor Mike Foley, but he's a running mate in name only. If Ricketts wins in November, so will Heidemann—creating a humiliating possibility that Heidemann would have to spurn the lieutenant governorship again by declining to accept the oath of office. Ricketts could then appoint Foley in his stead, but still, yeesh.
And it's even more embarrassing because Heidemann is now the second Nebraska lieutenant governor to resign in a row. Republican Rick Sheehy, who at one point was the frontrunner for this year's race for governor, quit last year after the Omaha World-Herald revealed he'd made thousands of phone calls to four different women who weren't his wife, using a state-provided cell phone. At the time, Heinemann declared that public officials "are rightly held to a higher standard," but his selection of Heidemann evidently fell far short.
Democrats have a credible candidate here in Chuck Hassebrook, and despite what you might expect on paper, this is a race Republicans do not have sewn up. And thanks to Lavon Heidemann, a whole bunch more stitching just came undone.
• NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez continues to crush Democrat Gary King in fundraising. Since late June, she pulled in $962,000 versus $379,000 for King, and she also has an enormous cash edge, $3.8 million to $158,000.
• OH-Gov: Oof. A new University of Akron poll finds GOP Gov. John Kasich legging out to a 46-27 lead on Democrat Ed FitzGerald, whose campaign imploded last month. Akron obviously didn't press leaners, but that just ain't good for Fitz.
• PA-Gov: I thought we already had the "this is why you vet everyone who appears in your campaign ads" lesson last week, but I guess someone wasn't listening in class.
• SC-Gov: A new survey from the South Carolina Democratic Party, conducted by PPP, finds GOP Gov. Nikki Haley with a 50-45 lead on Democrat Vincent Sheheen. Palmetto Democrats are trying to portray this as a race that hasn't really budged since they last polled in June, when Haley was up 49-46, even though she outspent Sheheen on the air $650,000 to $260,000 last month. PPP also says the undecideds are more apt to lean in the blue direction.
But South Carolina is one of those "high floor, low ceiling" states for Democrats (Obama got 44 percent here), and with Haley already at 50, she'll be tough to dislodge. What's more, this poll didn't include wealthy Republican-turned-independent Tom Ervin, who's run something of a centrist campaign and is likely eating into both major-party candidates' vote shares. Ervin has spent at least $2 million of his own money, so he'll definitely register in the polls. Without him in the mix, it's harder to know where this race actually stands.
House:
• AZ-01: State House Speaker Andy Tobin had a very rocky path to the GOP nomination, but now he and the NRCC are trying to suggest his worst days are all behind him with a new internal poll from the Tarrance Group. Tobin has a 51-43 lead on Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and is taking 89 percent of Republican voters, numbers that would be pretty dominant if this poll is accurate.
But it might not be. Arizona Democrats are howling over the fact that only 6 percent of the sample is Native American, while almost a quarter of the 1st District identifies as Indian. (It's actually the most Indian district in the nation.) Native Americans do have one of the lowest voter participation rates of any ethnic group, but the 25 percent turnout envisioned by Tarrance seems awfully low even so.
Few polls of the 1st District in recent years provide any kind of demographic information, but one Republican survey from 2010 found that 14 percent gave their race as "other" (bizarrely, Indian or Native American was not offered as a choice). So it does seem as though Tarrance's sample might be off, and their 2012 polling was heavily biased toward the GOP. But a more convincing response would come in the form of a Democratic poll that shows contradictory toplines.
• NC-06: Democrats had been hoping that Republican Mark Walker, who wants to impeach Obama for imposing Sharia law (or martial law or something—who knows?), would manage to make the race for North Carolina's open 6th District somehow competitive despite its dark red hue. But either they haven't done a good job publicizing Walker's lunatic pronouncements, or voters there are cool with 'em, because Walker just cranked out an internal poll from WPA Opinion Research showing him with a 54-31 lead on Democrat Laura Fjeld.
Even if this poll is favorable to Walker, as internals are wont to be, it's now up to Fjeld to respond in some way. This was always going to be a longshot race, but major outside groups are about to start the painful triage process, so time has all but run out to make the case that this seat should not get black-tagged.
Grab Bag:
• President-by-LD: Today we make a stop over in Connecticut and Montana in our ongoing project to provide election results by legislative and congressional district for every state in the nation. As always, you can find our master list of data here.
We have Connecticut's 2012 statewide races calculated by state House, state Senate, and congressional districts. Barack Obama carried the Nutmeg State 58-41, netting 119 of the 151 House seats, 30 of the 36 Senate seats, and all five congressional districts. We also have the results for the 2012 U.S. Senate race calculated by district. Democrat Chris Murphy's 55-43 win gave him 101 House seats, 27 Senate districts, and the five congressional districts.
Democrats have controlled both legislative chambers for decades and they aren't likely to lose either anytime soon. Still, Republicans have been far better at winning blue legislative seats than their counterparts in nearby Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Team Red holds 24 Obama House seats and eight Obama Senate seats. By contrast, Democrats have two House seats that Romney won. The bluest seat held by a Republican is HD-74 in Waterbury, won by Obama 61-38. Altogether, Democrats hold a 97-54 majority in the House and a 22-14 Senate majority.
We also have Montana's statewide races calculated by state House and Senate districts (the state only has one congressional district). Montana carried out redistricting in 2013 and will use its new districts for the first time in 2014, so we do not have any incumbents assigned to any seats. Note that each Senate seat consists of two House districts nested together.
Montana was close on the presidential level in 2008, but Mitt Romney took it by a clear 55-42 margin in 2012. Romney won 67 of the 100 House seats and 31 of the 50 Senate districts. Republicans currently hold a 61-39 House majority and 29-21 edge in the Senate. In the past, Montana's legislature has been quite volatile: Democrats held a small Senate majority from 2005 to the 2008 elections, and neither party won a majority in 2004 or 2008.
We also have the results calculated by legislative district for the 2012 contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, attorney general, auditor, secretary of state, and superintendent of public education. Republicans won the state's lone congressional seat and flipped the attorney general's office, while Democrats won the other five contests. Auditor Monica Lindeen led the Democratic ticket with her 54-46 victory: She netted 63 House seats and 29 Senate seats. In the closest statewide contest in the state, Democratic Superintendent Denise Juneau won her position by 0.48 percent and took half of the House seats and half of the Senate seats.
• On Wednesday evening, Daily Kos Elections' Jeff Singer will lead a discussion on this year's best and worst campaign ads with the Tulane University Democrats. The event starts at 8:30 PM local time and is open to the public. Details here.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: Freedom Partners goes after Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor on Obamacare.
• CO-Sen: The SEIU spends $253,000 on a Spanish-language spot against Republican Rep. Cory Gardner. NextGen Climate spends another $217,000 against Gardner.
• GA-Sen: Republican David Perdue is out with his first general election commercial. Perdue spends about half the spot attacking Democrat Michelle Nunn, borrowing snippets from Nunn's leaked campaign memo for his attack lines. The rest of the ad is boring positive "Perdue is a businessman" boilerplate.
The NRSC also hits Nunn on immigration. There's no narration, just clips of Nunn saying a few generically nice things about Obama as scary music plays and text appears on the screen.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is quite condescending toward Alison Grimes.
• MI-Sen: The DSCC continues to tie Republican Terri Lynn Land to the Koch brothers, again citing pollution from the Kochs' projects in the state. Democratic Rep. Gary Peters goes positive, stressing his military service.
• NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen portrays Republican Scott Brown as a corporate sellout.
• OR-Sen: Well, this is something you don't see every day. Republican Monica Wehby's spot features Ben West, who was one of the plaintiffs in the successful lawsuit against Oregon's same-sex marriage ban. West describes Wehby as a leader who will stand up for equality, the unemployed, and the next generation.
• AR-Gov: The RGA ties Democrat Mike Ross to Nancy Pelosi, before going positive for Asa Hutchinson. In recent weeks, Pelosi has started to appear more and more in GOP campaign ads. It's unclear if she still resonates with voters four years after losing the speakership, but the Republicans seem to be betting big that she does.
• AZ-Gov: The RGA has been hitting Democrat Fred DuVal since the late August Republican primary ended, and now national Democrats are entering the fray. During the primary, eventual winner Doug Ducey's opponents attacked his business career at the ice cream chain Cold Stone Creamery. While that wasn't enough to stop Ducey in August, national Democrats are picking up this line of attack and running with it.
Restore Arizona's Future, a DGA-aligned group, accuses Ducey of using dishonest business practices to lure potential Cold Stone franchise owners. When things went south, the narrator claims that Ducey cut them loose, causing them to lose everything while Ducey sold out at a profit. Arizona has generally been seen as a potentially competitive race, but one that Team Red is favored to hold. The Democrats' decision to invest here isn't too surprising but it's still notable. Both parties evidently think they have a shot here and are likely to keep working hard to win this open-seat race.
• CT-Gov: Connecticut Forward hits Republican Tom Foley's job record.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist attacks Republican Gov. Rick Scott on abortion.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter decries the state of Georgia's public education and promises to protect schools.
• IL-Gov: That didn't take long. A few days ago, an old radio interview with Republican Bruce Rauner resurfaced, where Rauner called for eliminating the state minimum wage. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has a new spot hitting Rauner over it.
• ME-Gov: The RGA continues to help out the very vulnerable Paul LePage. This time, they praise LePage's work on welfare and fighting domestic violence.
• SC-Gov: Republican Nikki Haley ties Democrat Vincent Sheheen to labor groups.
• WI-Gov: The RGA portrays Democrat Mary Burke as a tax-loving jobs-hating libruhl. The ad throws in a jab at Occupy Wall Street, which is a bit weird since they haven't been in the news in years.
• AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick uses her first spot to chastise Congress, while portraying herself as a dissenter.
• FL-02: Democrat Gwen Graham emphasizes jobs.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy compares Congress to fish, which is one of the nicer things they've been called in recent years. Murphy continues to stress his independence from party politics.
• MI-01: Republican Rep. Dan Benishek has a local businessman bemoaning Obamacare.
• MI-07: Republican Rep. Tim Walberg talks about improving schools. A little weirdly, the spot begins with a Facebook comment asking Walberg what he's doing on education. I guess it's supposed to show he's cool?
• NY-18: House Majority PAC spends $146,000 tying Republican Nan Hayworth to big insurance companies.
• NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed continues to portray Democrat Martha Robertson as an "extreme Ithaca liberal." This time Reed's camp forgoes the hippie motif, but the spot is still a bit weird. As a record labeled "Ithaca Liberal Records Most Extreme Hits Vol #1" with Robertson's face on it spins, the attacks begin.
The ad first hits Robertson for calling climate change "the very most important issue," then features Robertson declaring she'll vote for Pelosi for speaker. The spot then features a clip of Robertson calling for "total single payer" heath care (which the narrator oh-so-helpfully informs us is "total government-controlled healthcare"). The ad ends with a context-less clip of Robertson saying "Our taxes will go up." All in all, not exactly the most persuasive stuff.
• VA-10: Democrat John Foust uses his first spot to promote his work in cutting government waste in Fairfax County.
• DCCC: National Democrats are airing new spots in AZ-02, IA-03, and NY-01. Only IA-03 is Republican-held.
• NRSC: National Republicans are running new spots in AZ-02, FL-02, GA-12, IA-03, IL-12, MN-07, MN-08, NY-01, and WV-03. All of them except FL-02 are Democratic-held. Politico has the size of the buy for each spot.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.
