Despite what recent polls say about this race, this new poll confirms that this race is far from over:
http://www.politicususa.com/...
According to a new internal poll, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has a small lead over Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky 43%-42%.
The poll, conducted for the Grimes campaign by the Melman Group, found that the Democrat has more strong support than McConnell (35%-30%). Grimes leads Independents by ten points (40%-30%), and she leads by nine points with voters who know both candidates (50%-41%). Despite millions of dollars in negative advertising from McConnell and outside groups that are supporting him, Grimes has maintained a net positive personal favorability rating of (+5). Her personal favorable rating is 41%-36%. McConnell’s personal favorable rating is a net (-5), 42%-47%.
Mitch McConnell’s negative job approval rating continues to drag him down. Sixty-one percent of Kentucky voters gave McConnell a negative job approval rating. Only 32% of those polled hold a positive view of the job that he has done in the Senate. Alison Grimes has a net (-1) job approval rating of 38%-39%. The three phrases most associated with Mitch McConnell in respondents’ minds were “opposes raising the minimum wage,” “has been in office too long”, and “supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.” The two phrase most associated with Grimes were, “will work to create good jobs,” and “will protect Social Security and Medicare.”
Lundergan Grimes holds advantages in personal likeability, job approval, and pocketbook issues. The Democrat is structurally in a good spot to win this election. The one dynamic that could hurt the Grimes campaign will be if they contest the campaign on McConnell’s terms. Mitch McConnell can’t run on his record. McConnell can’t run on what he has done for Kentucky. The thirty-year incumbent has retreated to the last refuge of all embattled campaigns. He is trying to turn off voters by turning the election into a mudslinging contest. - Politicus USA, 9/10/14
Now before you start doubting this internal poll, here's a few things you should know:
http://thehill.com/...
The survey didn’t include the libertarian in the race, whom observers say could siphon votes away from both candidates and, in a tight race, potentially be a deciding factor. And without further details on the makeup of the polling sample, it’s difficult to weigh the accuracy of the Grimes internal poll against the handful of public polls showing a tougher fight ahead for her — but it should be taken skeptically, as it remains an outlier in the race.
Still, in a conference call with reporters, Mark Mellman expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm’s success rate in previous races.
“We’ve been right when these public polls have been wrong,” he said. “I’m more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.”
Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.
Mellman said he’s confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled “the likely electorate, not just likely voters,” by analyzing “each individual’s vote history and what that does to their probable vote” this cycle. He wouldn’t offer further details on how the Grimes campaign is modeling its likely electorate this fall, however.
He also hinted that the campaign chose not to release earlier internal polling, and that Grimes’s numbers had improved over the past few weeks.
The Grimes campaign promised to have polling briefings with reporters more frequently as the race heats up into the fall, and Grimes's deputy campaign manager Phillip Thomas said they fully expect the polls to continue to fluctuate, they’re confident heading into the final stretch.
“We’ve come out [of the Labor Day weekend] now ready for this race and as you can see we’re in striking distance of beating the minority leader,” he said.
The survey was conducted among 800 likely voters from Sept. 4 to 7 with live interviews via cellphone and landline, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. - The Hill, 9/10/14
Now I would like to have seen how the Libertarian candidate affected this poll but I also have faith in the Mellman Group's accuracy record. I never thought this race was over and I still think it's a pure toss up. Lets help keep the momentum by donating and getting involved with Grimes' campaign:
http://alisonforkentucky.com/