Two new federal surveys released Tuesday could provide ammunition to Obamacare haters, showing less than robust enrollment numbers in the program. These surveys, by the Census Bureau and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) created by the Centers for Disease Control, show modest decreases in the number of uninsured, but while the data presented in them is extremely accurate, it's
outdated. The Census numbers presented are from 2013, and the NHIS numbers reflect just January-March of 2014, not encompassing the late surge of enrollments at the end of March, extended into April.
The Census numbers will be helpful in setting a baseline for comparison to this year, while the NHIS essentially reiterates data that was already released by private surveys, like Gallup's. Here's what it found in the first few months of 2014.
The number of uninsured Americans fell by about 8 percent to 41 million people in the first quarter of this year, compared with 2013, a drop that represented about 3.8 million people and that roughly matched what experts were expecting based on polling by private groups, like Gallup. The survey also measured physical health but found little evidence of change. […]
There was a sharper drop in the share of uninsured in states that expanded Medicaid than in those that did not, reflecting the broad uptake of the government insurance program since the law took effect. The share of uninsured among 18- to 64-year-olds fell by nearly three percentage points to 15.7 percent in the first quarter in states that expanded Medicaid, compared with a drop of about one percentage point to 21.5 percent in states that did not, a decline that was not statistically significant. […]
[T]he survey measured a number of other basic health indicators, but only one of them registered any real change: About 2.9 percent of respondents said they had experienced a “serious psychological stress during the past 30 days,” down from 3.7 percent in 2013.
That last finding mirrors an
Oregon Medicaid survey, which registered real benefits to newly enrolled Medicaid patients in mental health, while not finding real improvements in physical health. Having coverage helps bring peace of mind and more financial security. The survey did find a significant decline in the number of uninsured 19-26 year olds, down from 27 percent in 2013 to 21 percent in the first quarter of 2014.
This is all consistent with surveys done in the first quarter of the year, and basically reaffirms what the first three months of Obamacare looked like. But the most information NHIS reports won't be released until December. That's the one that will give the full picture of Obamacare's first full year.