Vanity Fair has an excellent piece on the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa that
explains a lot about how the epidemic got rolling, and to me argues for why it will be a lot
worse then people think
http://www.vanityfair.com/...
Hell in the Hot Zone
As the Ebola epidemic rages, two questions have emerged: How did the deadly virus escape detection for three months? And why has a massive international effort failed to contain it? Traveling to Meliandou, a remote Guinean village and the likely home of Patient Zero, Jeffrey E. Stern tracks the virus’s path—and the psychological contagion that is still feeding the worst Ebola outbreak in history.
But what soon became troubling to Batchyli were the phone calls from people who saw the hand of foreigners behind the epidemic. The logic followed a pattern: the virus had never been anywhere near Guinea before. Then the white people came, and only at that point did talk of “Ebola” start. The foreigners had come so fast that they had actually out-run their own messaging: there were trucks full of foreigners in yellow space suits motoring into villages to take people into isolation before people understood why isolation was necessary.
Even if you understood the reasons, the message from the government and the health workers (and the local media) had undercut the incentive to cooperate. If Ebola was a death sentence, what was the point? The public-service announcements had not been subtle—they didn’t explain that mortality rates vary or that, with supportive care, patients do survive (as half the Ebola patients at the M.S.F. treatment center in Conakry had done). To a villager, the isolation centers were fearsome places. They offered a one-way maze through white tarpaulins and waist-high orange fencing. Relatives or friends went in and then you lost them. You couldn’t see what was happening inside the tents—you just saw the figures in goggles and full-body protective gear. The health workers move carefully in order to avoid tears and punctures; from a distance, the effect is robotic. The health workers don’t look like any people you’ve ever seen. They perform stiffly and slowly, and then they disappear into the tent where your mother or brother may be, and everything that happens inside is left to your imagination. Villagers began to whisper to one another—They’re harvesting our organs; they’re taking our limbs.
I've argued this outbreak will be significantly worse then WHO projections because the
cultural factors. West Africa is extremely poor in terms of GDP.
Sierra Leone is the relatively rich country with $809/person GDP, Liberia is at $454.
Life at one and two dollars per day is the ultimate in subsistence living.
That leaves little time, resources or energy to educate people, so
you have some of the worlds lowest literacy levels
http://www.irinnews.org/...
Sixty-five million West African adults – 40 percent of the adult population – cannot read or write according to a new study, 'From closed books to open doors – West Africa's literacy challenge'.
Of the 10 countries with the world’s lowest recorded adult – 15 and older – literacy rates, seven are in West Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Sierra Leone, the report says.
I'm not much of an education specialist but my understanding is that Literacy is defined as having the ability to conduct tasks and learn skills in writing, this literacy level is
considered one of the lowest nationally in west africa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/...
and as has been discussed in other diaries, the medical spending per capita is about $1 per person. Barely enough to buy gloves let alone run a real developing country
health system, let alone modern medical systems.
Better writers then me have diaried on this so I won't go into it, but,
my concern has been the psychological and cultural factors will make this
epidemic much worse.
http://www.latimes.com/...
en Guinean government officials visited the village of Womme in the country’s southeast, they planned to educate people about Ebola and show them how to avoid it — in a region where many still believe the virus doesn’t exist.
But it all went disastrously wrong.
Villagers responded furiously, pelting the delegation with stones and beating the visitors with clubs, according to Guinean radio. The delegation, which included doctors and journalists, fled into the bush after the attack Tuesday.
The Guinean government said Thursday that eight delegation members had been killed, including several journalists, news agencies reported. There also were reports that 21 people had been injured.
Scared, frightened, poor and ignorant, this isn't the formula for successful epidemic control.
People will flee, carrying the bug with them, the Governments will escalate force
using troops equally limited in skills and education.
I think the Disease will burn out like all plagues do, but it's not going to be pretty.