A new Des Moines Register poll has GOP Senate candidate Joni Ernst leading Democrat Bruce Braley, 44-38, in the race to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D).
The DMR poll is conducted by Ann Selzer, who is considered the expert of polling Iowa. In 2012, her final poll had Obama over Romney by 5 percentage points, and the president carried the state by 5.6.
I suppose the only good news for Braley is that such a high percentage of respondents in the poll were undecided or favoring a minor-party candidate.
I could not find a supplemental document of poll internals, but the main article and a sidebar provide some.
Braley is "suffering badly with rural voters. Only 15 percent support him compared with 58 percent for Ernst." (Main article)
"Ernst trails Braley among likely female voters by 13 percentage points. But Braley faces an even bigger gap than Ernst: He loses with men by 25 points." (Sidebar)
My main question after reading these articles is, who are the undecideds? Are they mainly people who voted for Obama (or have demographic characteristics suggesting a Democratic lean) or Romney (or have demographics suggesting a GOP lean) or is there no clear trend among the undecideds?