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• AR-Sen: A new CNN/ORC poll finds Republican Rep. Tom Cotton edging Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 49-47 among likely voters, but in classic CNN fashion, the numbers among registered voters are wildly different. In fact, Pryor has a huge 47-38 lead with registered voters, suggesting that there's either a huge enthusiasm gap or that CNN's likely voter screen is too tight.
It's hard to say which is the case, though. In 2012, CNN's final poll of Florida found Obama leading by 6 with RVs while Romney was up 1 with LVs; Obama wound up winning by less than 1 percent, suggesting the LV model was closer to the mark. But in Colorado, the RVs had Obama ahead 8 while the LVs put him up just 2. Obama carried Colorado by more than 5 points, so there, the two voter screens split the difference.
If we have more of a Florida situation here, then Cotton either has a slim lead or the race is tied. But if things look more like Colorado, that would mean Pryor's the one in front. Steve Singiser compared RV and LV results for the final set of national polls in 2012: In every case, the RVs were closer to the mark than the LVs. And in 2004 and 2008, RV polls were also generally more accurate than LV polls. If this pattern continues, that's good news for Team Blue.
Pryor responded with his own poll (of likely voters, natch) showing him ahead of Cotton 45-43. The only prior survey from Hickman Analytics (conducted for a different client) came all the way back in February, when they had Pryor ahead 40-37. Note that Hickman's latest poll was conducted over a very long eight-day period that included Labor Day weekend, which is probably not the best time to get a read on the electorate. This is definitely not the only recent survey, though, that has this problem.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Looks like Dan Sullivan's carpetbagging chickens are coming home to roost. Maryland officials say they're investigating Sullivan's acceptance of a tax credit that's only available to homeowners who claim the state as their principle residence. Sullivan benefited from that tax break, known as a homestead exemption, which of course further undermines his claims to be an actual Alaskan. But seeing as he voted by mail in Alaska during the time he was living in Maryland and taking the homestead credit, he could well wind up owing back taxes in Maryland, since of course his attempt to establish his Alaska bona fides would contradict his assertion that Maryland was his principle residence.
Either way, Sullivan loses. And if this all sounds quite familiar, that's because it is. Last month, the same Maryland officials cracked down on Republican Walt Havenstein, who's running for governor in New Hampshire and tried to pull the same shenanigans that Sullivan did. In fact, the head of the Alaska Democrats says that the Havenstein story prompted him to ask Maryland's tax department for a review of Sullivan's case. Yet another instance of one Republican dragging down another.
• CO-Sen: Rasmussen: Mark Udall (D-inc): 44, Cory Gardner (R): 42 (June: 43-42 Udall).
• KS-Sen: Democrat Chad Taylor, whose attempt to remove himself from the November ballot was blocked by Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach, now says that he'll indeed challenge Kobach's move. And confirming that Kobach's decision was motivated by rank partisanship, NBC says that when they contacted the secretary of state's office on Wednesday when the news of Taylor's decision to drop out first broke, a spokesman "made it pretty clear" that Taylor would not appear on the ballot.
One detail we've been considering in case Taylor can't get off the ballot is just what kind of vote share he might take, seeing as he wouldn't be campaigning at all. Unfortunately, there aren't many comparable examples, but Taniel takes a look at all the closest cases in recent electoral history. The most similar situation is probably the 2009 NY-23 special election, when Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out just days beforehand and endorse Democrat Doug Owens. She still wound up taking 6 percent of the vote, but Kansas voters will have much more time to process the news of Taylor's departure.
While Taylor's status remains up in the air, there is someone else who definitely won't be involved in the election: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts' campaign manager, Leroy Towns, who just left the campaign. Towns is the dweebus who let slip that Roberts had returned "home" to Virginia to "rest" after last month's bruising primary. Towns could probably use a nice rest, too.
Roberts, on the other hand, has finally emerged from seclusion, appearing at a local chamber of commerce event in Wichita. He took the time to sneer at his former Democratic opponent, saying, "I hope it does end up in the courts, I'd like to know how Chad Taylor defines 'incapacitated' other than a phone call from Claire McCaskill."
That's a reference to a state law that says candidates can only get off the ballot if they are "incapable" of serving, as well as to the fact that Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill apparently played a role in convincing Taylor to step down. It also confirms that Roberts is a farbissina cur who's unpopular for a reason.
In addition, Roberts admitted that he's bringing in a "brand new team" to replace Towns in what is now a competitive race against independent Greg Orman. On top of the help that the NRSC is air-dropping in, the AP reports that Roberts is poaching Koch brothers lobbyist Alan Cobb from Kansas Rep. Mike Pompeo's staff. But as Alexandra Jaffe already noted, there aren't many good operatives left who aren't already spoken for at this late date.
Indeed, Roberts is also importing Corry Bliss, who recently helped Karen Handel lose the Georgia Senate primary, to manage his campaign. Bliss' résumé should worry Roberts a bit: Aside from Handel, Bliss ran Thelma Drake's 2008 re-election bid in VA-02 (loss), Vermont Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie's run for governor in 2010 (loss), and Linda McMahon's second attempt at CT-Sen in 2012 (loss). He's also this jagoff.
While it would be hard to do worse than Towns, "brand new" definitely doesn't mean better.
• NC-Sen: No, it's not Todd Akin-level, but it might just be Rick Lazio-esque. Republican Thom Tillis has earned a heap of negative coverage for his demeaning treatment of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan at a debate on Wednesday night. While Hagan referred to Tillis by his current title, "Speaker," Tillis repeatedly called Hagan "Kay," and also denigrated her math skills. (Hagan was a bank vice president and served as chair of the state Senate's budget committee.) You can find clips of the debate in this local news report, which does not present Tillis in a flattering light.
And it's certainly not the first time (nor will it be the last) that a Republican guy has come off looking like a dick for his treatment of a Democratic woman in a debate. George H.W. Bush called Rep. Geraldine Ferraro "Miss Ferraro" over and over in their vice-presidential debate in 1984 and condescendingly told her, "Let me help you with the difference, Miss Ferraro, between Iran and the embassy in Lebanon." And of course, there was Rick Lazio's infamously creepy invasion of Hillary Clinton's personal space in their 2000 debate in New York's Senate race. If Thom Tillis is hoping to alienate women voters, he certainly has some good role models.
• NH-Sen: American Crossroads is still laboring mightily to turn the New Hampshire Senate race into a competitive one; even if they don't win, forcing the DSCC to play big in the Boston market would vacuum up a lot of funds that could be deployed more efficiently in Arkansas or Louisiana instead. To that end, they've rolled out a poll from Public Opinion Strategies, one of the more credible (or at least less incredible) GOP internal pollsters, giving Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen only a 44-41 lead over Republican Scott Brown. Poll aggregating has, indeed, seen this race slip from a low-teens to a high-single-digits affair, so it's in similar on-the-cusp-of-being-interesting territory as the Michigan race. (David Jarman)
• OR-Sen: It looks like the Koch brothers are giving up in Oregon. Freedom Partners, the once-"secret bank" at the heart of the Kochtopus, has cancelled all remaining ad reservations for the month of October, reportedly totaling at least $1 million. They're still on the hook for $1.6 million in TV spending this month, but maybe they'll try to wriggle out of that, too.
Rasmussen also checks in: Jeff Merkley (D-inc): 48, Monica Wehby (R): 35 (May: 47-37 Merkley).
Gubernatorial:
• AR-Gov: If you've never stopped to think about how important real estate appraisers are to a functioning society, here's a good example from FactCheck.org.† You might remember a particularly-potent RGA attack ad from August against Democrat Mike Ross, which alleged that he received a huge "sweetheart deal" on the 2007 sale of his family-owned pharmacy for way above its appraised value. The House Ethics Committee cleared Ross in the dispute over the transaction, but that's not stopping the RGA.
But the real backstory behind the case is amazing: The appraisal in question was so poorly performed that the appraiser who carried it out was subsequently drummed out of the profession by state licensing authorities. There are three main appraisal methods, and the appraiser used the method that isn't used for commercial properties while ignoring the two methods that are used for commercial properties; moreover, he relied on comparable properties in an entirely different town. To analogize his level of incompetence to another profession, it'd be like performing surgery with a garden trowel and barbeque tongs. Because the appraiser's estimate was so unrealistically low, when Ross actually received market value for the property, to an outside observer it would look like a "sweetheart deal." Needless to say, the RGA doesn't mention that in their ad.
(†Well, actually a good example would be the 2008 financial crisis, which was caused in large part by a real estate bubble that was caused in part by real estate appraisers consistently overvaluing properties, thanks to a combination of herd mentality and pressure from the banks that pay for their services!) (David Jarman)
• IL-Gov: If Republican Bruce Rauner manages to win the governor's race in Illinois this year, it'll only be in spite of himself. Early last week, we learned that he belongs to a wine club (a freakin' wine club) with a $100,000-plus annual membership fee. Then, it turned out that he'd admitted to once wanting to eliminate the minimum wage entirely in a radio interview earlier this year, when previously we merely thought that he wanted to roll back Illinois' minimum wage to the lower federal standard.
But the latest one-percenter embarrassment comes from Rauner's new TV ad in which he basically pretends to be poor by talking up his 20-year-old van that his kids call a "trashcan." The notion that Rauner is somehow a frugal guy because he's hung on to a vehicle with 200,000 miles on it just can't possibly fly when he's sipping rare chablis at unfathomable cost.
What's more, Rauner may have treated his car like crap, but that doesn't mean it's a beater. In fact, it's actually a no-longer-produced Volkswagen Westfalia, which is by no means cheap. (Here's one with a similar pedigree still going for $25,000.) A rich guy abusing his pricey, now-rare van—not very helpful imagery at all.
• MA-Gov: On behalf of the Boston Globe, SocialSphere takes one last look at the Sept. 9 Democratic primary and they find Attorney General Martha Coakley leading Treasurer Steve Grossman 43-23. SocialSphere didn't take a look at the general election this week in order to focus on the Democratic primary. While a Suffolk University Poll found Coakley only up 42-30, every other recent public poll has shown Coakley running away with a win here. Either Coakley is going to be the Democratic nominee without much trouble on Tuesday, or a lot of Massachusetts pollsters are going to be explaining themselves on Wednesday. (Jeff Singer)
• MI-Gov: New fundraising reports show Republican Gov. Rick Snyder continuing to outraise Democrat Mark Schauer, with Snyder taking in $651,000 since late July while Schauer raised $475,000. Snyder has $2.9 million cash-on-hand left over while Schauer has $2 million, but a big reason that gap isn't larger is because Snyder's reserved much more TV time, $2 million versus $612,000. To date, Snyder's raised almost $10 million while Schauer's taken in a much smaller $3.6 million. However, despite this gulf, the polling average shows this race a dead heat.
• OK-Gov: There have been rumblings that Republican Gov. Mary Fallin could have a tougher re-election than initially expected, but a new Sooner Poll conducted for a local news station finds her cruising to victory. They give Fallin a hefty 50-32 lead over Democratic state Rep. Joe Dorman. Interestingly, this is a bit better than the 44-31 lead Fallin's own pollster found recently. Neither national party has made any real moves here yet, which is a good indicator they don't see a real race here. Sooner Poll also surveys both U.S. Senate races and finds Team Red easily keeping the two seats. (Jeff Singer)
• PA-Gov: One of the disadvantages of being a national party committee is you have to support your incumbents, no matter how dead they look. Still, it's a bit surprising the RGA is transferring $3.5 million to Republican Gov. Tom Corbett's campaign. Maybe the RGA sees a path to victory for Corbett, who trails by double-digits in every recent poll. Or maybe the treasurer of the RGA is just one of the five people on earth who still likes Corbett. (Jeff Singer)
• WI-Gov: We Ask America takes a look at Wisconsin, and they find Democrat Mary Burke leading Republican Gov. Scott Walker 48-44. This is the largest lead for Burke in any publicly released poll to date, though it's not too different from the two-point edge Marquette Law found recently.
WAA is one of the last pollsters we'd expect to show good numbers for Team Blue. The extremely conservative Illinois Manufacturers Association owns the group, and WAA has produced some very Republican leaning results in their home state. It's tempting to argue that if a conservative flavored outfit is showing Walker in trouble, he must be utterly screwed: However, when dealing with an unreliable pollster, the best thing to do is to wait for more data. Given how much attention this contest will get, it's a good bet we'll see some other groups surveying the state before too long. (Jeff Singer)
House:
• AZ-09: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce makes another rare gesture of bipartisanship and endorses Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Sinema is the third Democrat to earn the Chamber's endorsement so far this cycle in a competitive race: Rep. Scott Peters of California and Rep. John Barrow recently also received the deep-pocketed group's nod. It's a bit of an odd twist for Sinema, who worked on Ralph Nader's presidential campaign in 2000. (Jeff Singer)
• MA-06: Democratic Rep. John Tierney is the last member of Congress in any trouble of losing a primary, and the student-run Emerson College Polling Society finds him in real trouble. They have Tierney narrowly ahead of veteran Seth Moulton 47-44 in the Sept. 9 primary. There have been no other publicly released polls since both sides started advertising in earnest here. Tierney is vulnerable due to a scandal involving his wife, who served a month in prison after forging her brother's taxes. While Tierney was not involved in the case, the issue has jeopardized his once firm hold on this Democratic-leaning seat.
Emerson also takes a look at the general, and finds a major difference in how Tierney and Moulton would do against Republican Richard Tisei. Tisei leads Tierney 51-43, but trails Moulton 44-36. Tierney narrowly defeated Tisei in 2012 while Obama was winning 55-45 here.
The Emerson College Polling Society hasn't been active for very long, and they have a limited record. They nailed the final margin in the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial primary, though they showed a ton of undecideds just days before. In any case, it's good that they're willing to stick their necks out and poll a race that no one else is looking at just days before the election. (Jeff Singer)
• MI-08, MI-11: Thanks once again to the industrious Kyle Melinn of MIRS News, we've gotten our hands on new Democratic internal polls of two Michigan House races. The first is from GBA Strategies on behalf of Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing, who trails Republican Mike Bishop, a former state Senate majority leader, by a 42-37 spread in the open 8th District. Libertarian James Weeks takes a huge 10 percent of the vote while Green Party candidate Jim Casha pulls just 3. GBA also says the generic ballot is tied at 43 apiece.
Though Barack Obama carried the seat narrowly in 2008, it's ancestrally GOP turf, and a Democratic win would be a big upset, especially since Schertzing has very limited resources. But should we believe his numbers? Well, the Bishop campaign's response shouldn't make Republicans feel too comfortable. Snarked a consultant, "It's the week of fake Democratic polls. You could get the same accuracy by reprinting stories from The Onion." Har har! But if there's one thing Onion readers are good at, it's detecting bullshit. So where are Bishop's own numbers? Probably stolen by Golden-Age Clinton, I'll bet.
Meanwhile, over in the 11th—another open but Republican-leaning seat—the picture is somewhat similar. Democrat Bobby McKenzie is sharing numbers from Tulchin Research that have down 44-40 to Republican Dave Trott, who knocked off accidental Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the GOP primary last month. Trott, a foreclosure kingpin, has some serious negatives, but the McKenzie has very little cash and faces a huge challenge in defining Trott publicly.
But like the Bishop campaign, Trott's people sneered at McKenzie's poll, calling it "fictitious." And like the Bishop campaign, Trott didn't bother to provide any alternative data. That at least rates a serious "Hmm." Just ask Golden-Age Clinton.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: The Census Bureau has been releasing a slew of new data about migration in the last few days, but there's a lot that data doesn't tell us (like the ideologies of the people moving). The mysterious (and for-profit) set of consumer data maintained by Experian Marketing Services, however, does track that kind of information, and the WSJ's Dante Chinni gives us a tantalizing peek under the hood. (They're the same service that can tell, you, for instance, just how liberal Whole Foods shoppers or how conservative Chik-Fil-A eaters are.)
The article contains cool interactive maps where you can mouse over particular counties (not all of them, just the ones where there's the most migration) to see what percentage of the people moving there are liberal, conservative, or middle-of-the-road. Most of the data is pretty predictable. For instance, 44 percent of people moving to Washington, DC, are liberal, the highest number I could find anywhere; meanwhile 62 percent of the people moving to Utah County, Utah, are conservative. However, there are a few surprises here and there, maybe most notably the seemingly large influx of liberals into Sumner County in the exurbs of Nashville. It's definitely worth taking some time to explore the maps. (David Jarman)
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: The NRSC attacks Democratic Sen. Mark Begich as a big spender. Begich himself goes after the Koch brothers for attacking him, accusing them of being involved in the lay offs of local workers. The DSCC also deploys another $570,000 here.
• AR-Sen: Senate Majority PAC shells out another $254,000 against Republican Rep. Tom Cotton.
• AZ-Gov: The RGA goes after Democrat Fred DuVal on education in a Spanish language spot.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes hits Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell for barely attending vital committee meetings. MoveOn also ties McConnell to crazy rich people.
McConnell has two spots (here and here). The first has a number of scary headlines, and argues that McConnell's leadership is needed now. The second spot mostly goes after Obama, while mentioning that Grimes backed Obama in 2008. The pro-McConnell Kentucky Opportunity Coalition also shells out another $142,000 (here and here).
• LA-Sen: Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy is the latest Republican to seize on immigration, portraying Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu as a vote for amnesty.
• MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Al Franken accuses Republican foe Mike McFadden of using a tax loophole for his company. Up till now Franken's spots have been mostly positive and haven't mentioned McFadden much.
• NC-Sen: The National Education Association spends a hefty $1.729 million hitting Republican Thom Tillis for education cuts.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is out with a spot for Scott Brown just ahead of the Sept. 9 Republican primary. This one features Mitt Romney sitting on what looks like a very comfortable couch and singing Brown's praises.
Also on the GOP side, Ending Spending returns to the air in the Granite State and once again accuses Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of using her Senate vote to profit. The group's last spot dealt with similar themes but was pulled for being... not exactly accurate. The price tag for this spot is $598,000.
• SD-Sen: A few days ago, Democrat Rick Weiland ran a spot hitting Republican Mike Rounds for allegedly auctioning off permanent resident cards (EB-5s) to the highest bidders. This is a story that's been out there for quite a while, but so far, it doesn't appear to be hurting Rounds.
Rounds appears to be taking this attack seriously, though. Rounds' team very quickly produced a response ad that is set to start airing on Monday. Rounds' spot argues that Rounds had nothing to do with the EB-5 program, while also going on about how EB-5 is awesome and creates state jobs. The narrator ends by declaring that if "Weiland had his way, thousands of South Dakotans would be unemployed today," before decrying Weiland's negative ad.
Rounds has been seen as the clear frontrunner here and neither party looks like they're in a hurry to get involved here. Still, this is a very defensive-sounding spot from Rounds, and it may indicate he's concerned that Weiland could use this issue against him. It's worth watching if any national Democratic groups think that Rounds could be vulnerable on EB-5, or if they continue to write off Weiland's chances.
• NRA: The NRA has more expenditures against Democrats in Senate races in Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia.
• AR-Gov: Republican Asa Hutchinson takes the incredibly controversial stance that the government should save money.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist ties Republican Gov. Rick Scott to special interests. The Florida Republican Party goes after Crist, blaming him for high unemployment during his governorship. The spot uses some of the most over-dramatic music I've heard in a campaign ad, making it sound like Crist has been possessed by a demon.
• KS-Gov: Kansas Values skewers Republican Gov. Sam Brownback on education cuts.
• NE-Gov: The RGA has their second spot in what was a very quiet contest until a few weeks ago. This one accuses Democrat Chuck Hassebrook of wanting to use taxpayer dollars on undocumented immigrants. So far national Democrats haven't been playing here, but we'll see if the RGA's spending encourages them to take a look at this race.
• NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez attacks Democrat Gary King on the minimum wage.
• RI-Gov: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung has one last spot ahead of the Sept. 9 GOP primary. This one touts Mitt Romney's endorsement, but Romney doesn't actually appear in person. Instead, audio of what sounds like a Romney robocall plays, as Romney says how awesome and conservative Fung is. Somehow, I doubt Romney will be employed much as a Fung surrogate in this blue state if Fung beats Ken Block on Tuesday.
• SC-Gov: Democrat Vincent Sheheen once again attacks Republican Gov. Nikki Haley for covering up a major digital security breach.
• TX-Gov: Democrat Wendy Davis goes after Republican Greg Abbott on education cuts. She also pledges to reduce the number of standardized tests, which is not an issue I've ever seen used in an ad before.
• AZ-02: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce portrays Democratic Rep. Ron Barber as a lapdog for national Democrats. Barber's spot accuses Republican Martha McSally of wanting to cut Medicare. We also have a size of the buy for a recent pro-Barber spot from Americans for Responsible Solutions, a group run by Barber's old boss Gabrielle Giffords: $558,000.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar's first general election spot stars his eight-grade teacher.
• CO-06: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce apparently thinks that Nancy Pelosi is still toxic in swing districts four years after losing the speakership. Their new spot ties Democrat Andrew Romanoff to Pelosi, and doesn't even bother to mention Obama.
• FL-02: House Majority PAC accuses Republican Rep. Steve Southerland of voting against healthcare for veterans.
• IA-03: The DCCC portrays Republican David Young as a creature of Washington.
• IL-17: Former Republican Rep. Bobby Schilling rides his motorcycle around as he touts his local roots.
• MI-01: The DCCC goes after Republican Rep. Dan Benishek on Medicare.
• NE-02: Democrat Brad Ashford has his first general election spot. Like many candidates he focuses on being bipartisan, but he does go one step beyond the others: He declares he'll create a group of 25 members to "set aside partisanship and focus on solving problems." Easier said than done.
• NH-01: AmericanUnity PAC recently ran a spot for Dan Innis ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary and we have a size-of-the-buy: $334,000. No deep-pocked groups have been coming to the aid of Innis' primary rival Frank Guinta.
• NH-02: Just ahead of the Sept 9. Republican primary, state Rep. Marilinda Garcia accuses former state Sen. Gary Lambert of voting with liberals in the legislature. Freedom's Defense also has a very cheap-looking spot for Garcia attacking Lambert.
• NY-11: Democrat Domenic Recchia goes biographical.
• OH-14: Republican Rep. David Joyce is out with his first general election spot, portraying himself as a regular guy who just wants you to call him "Dave".
