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here to use the Audubon Society's interactive map
No mincing words from the
Audubon Society:
The numbers are stark: Of the 588 species Audubon studied, 314 are likely to find themselves in dire straits by 2080. Unless, that is, the oil boomers in the Bakken—and everyone else—start to consider the future. Unless we begin to reduce the severity of global warming and buy birds more time to adapt to the changes coming their way.
Global climate is changing in ways not seen for millennia, and we know humans bear at least part of the responsibility. We also know that these changes are affecting animals large and small. For years scientists have been telling us that the ranges of bears, butterflies, and many other species are shifting north and toward the poles; that bird migrations are changing time and course; and that pollinators are trying to adjust to new flowering schedules. These alarming observations are only the beginning.
Audubon has been uniquely situated to study these changes.
For more than a century, volunteer birdwatchers throughout the Americas have contributed observations to Audubon’s annual Christmas Bird Count. Begun as a way to assess the health of bird populations, data from the annual census are now key to predicting birds’ responses to climate change. Using hundreds of thousands of standardized observations from both the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey, Audubon’s chief scientist, Gary Langham, and his colleagues were able to describe the “climate envelope” for each of 588 North American bird species—pinpointing the range of temperatures, amount of rainfall, and other climate characteristics of the habitats occupied by each species. Then they looked for each combination of characteristics within sophisticated computer projections of the global climate, finding the future climate envelopes—and, by extension, the potential future ranges—of the species and mapping them to a resolution of 10 square kilometers.
The study, which is in the process of peer review for journal publication, was lauded by Stuart Butchart, the head of science for BirdLife International, who was not personally involved in the research. The results show that the majority of North American bird species will be “climate-threatened” or “climate-endangered” by the end of the century, depending on future emissions scenarios.
Please read below the fold for more on this story.
The 188 climate-threatened birds face losing more than half of their current range by 2080, although they have the potential to shift into new areas. The 126 climate-endangered species are projected to lose more than 50 percent of their current range by 2050, with no net gain from range expansion.
The study was done very conservatively, says Terry Root, a Stanford University biologist and Audubon board member who studies how wildlife responds to climate change. “The findings are showing us the best possible future, not the worst possible future,” she says. And even in that best of futures, where North America is two to four degrees Celsius warmer, 314 bird species could struggle to find places they can survive.
And anyone who has been following the climate science knows that predictions consistently underestimate both the scope and pace of climate change and its impacts.
Audubon has a separate page on what you can do to help the birds. The bullet points include:
- Take the Pledge (to become informed and to help out)
- Create a Bird-Friendly Yard
- Get Involved With Your Local Important Bird Area
- Put Birds on Your Community’s Agenda
- Meet With Local Decision Makers
And the big one:
Support Policies That Lower Emissions: Urge leaders at the local, state, and national levels to enact policies that lower greenhouse gas emissions and support clean energy. Renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency targets, and other proactive measures reduce emissions and will limit the effects of global warming on birds. Put these policies on your leaders’ agendas, and publicly support efforts to make them stick.
Emissions are
the key to everything. For the birds. For the animals. For the plants. For the humans.