The major question heading into the Feb. 24 primary wasn't whether Mayor Rahm Emanuel would finish first, it was whether he'd be able to take the majority he needed to avoid an
April 7 runoff. Ultimately, Rahm
only took 45 percent of the vote, not a great showing at all for an incumbent who dramatically outspent all his rivals. Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia took second with 34 percent and will meet Rahm in the runoff; businessman Willie Wilson took a distant third with 11 percent, with Ald. Bob Fioretti at 7.
Rahm and his allies spent millions in the primary, and they'll spend millions in the runoff. The big question now is whether Rahm's detractors will show more interest in Garcia now than they did before, and help him at least make up some of the advertising gap. It's also uncertain what Wilson and Fioretti's supporters will do. If they're motivated enough to oust Rahm, the mayor is in serious trouble in April. But if they decide not to show up without their guy on the ballot or are open to backing the mayor, that gives Rahm some breathing room.
Rahm has had a very bumpy first term. Crime has emerged as a main issue, as have school closures. But there's also been a general sense that the mayor has been too cozy with corporate interests at the expense of regular Chicagoans. Rick Perlstein provides an interesting example over at In These Times. Perlstein notes that under Rahm, the Chicago Transit Authority partnered with Cubic to create a new Ventra smart card that doubled as a debit card. Commuters faced months of glitches, and found out there were tons of hidden fees. The whole debacle reinforced the notion that the incumbent wasn't looking out for residents.
There's been a general perception that Rahm has been losing support among black and Hispanic voters, and the primary results confirm it. The above maps from dreaminonempty help tell the story of how Rahm went from a 55 percent majority in 2011 to only a 45 percent plurality on Tuesday. Rahm continued to do well in the more wealthy white areas of the city, and even gained support among the city's small Republican base.
But Rahm cratered in black neighborhoods, and even among white liberals in the North Side and Far North Side. Interestingly, turnout sunk in Central Chicago, an area that Rahm did well in. If pro-Rahm voters didn't show up because of complacency, the primary results should snap them out of it. But if they stayed at home because of a lack of enthusiasm about the mayor, he has a bigger problem on his hands.
Rahm is a formidable candidate and he's not going to be easy to beat in April. Now that Garcia is the mayor's sole opponent, the commissioner should expect more scrutiny and more attacks. But the prospect of Rahm losing doesn't look as unrealistic as it did even at the beginning of the week.
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