Republican Rep. Frank Guinta
Leading Off:
• NH-01: Rep. Frank Guinta has certainly seen better days. Last Wednesday, the New Hampshire Republican paid a fine to the FEC over a mysterious (and illegal) $355,000 campaign loan from his parents, perhaps thinking that he could put this long-running story behind him. However, Guinta's move only led to more questions about his honesty, and his own party wants him out of this swing district.
Last week, Sen. Kelly Ayotte did little to defend the incumbent, but she ditched any subtlety on Monday and publicly told Guinta to get lost. State Senate President Chuck Morse and state House Speaker Shawn Jasper also called for his resignation, while state party chair Jennifer Horn called his situation "serious and extremely troubling." The hacks at the NRCC didn't exactly get Guinta's back either, saying only that they're "continuing to evaluate this very complex situation."
Guinta is at least acting like he doesn't care, saying on Monday that he won't resign, and that he'll fundraise to pay back the questionable loan (good luck finding donors). However, if Guinta won't go quietly, his party sounds ready to throw him into the shark tank. The Boston Globe reported on Friday that influential Republicans have already started discussing possible recruits, and they certainly have a lot of options. The Globe's James Pindell mentioned 14 different potential candidates, though it remains to be seen who's actually serious. One more notable name belongs to 2014 candidate Dan Innis, who lost the primary to Guinta and is reportedly interested in a second bid, but only if there's an open seat situation.
There's also been some speculation that ex-Massachusetts Sen. and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown could try again. However, given that a recent PPP survey gave Brown an atrocious 30-56 statewide favorable rating, it's unlikely the NRCC will be thrilled to have him as their standard-bearer. It doesn't help that Brown has already dispensed with last year's comic fiction that he's a New Hampshirite: He recently re-established his Masshole credentials by applying for a Massachusetts state pension.
For the moment, Guinta seems determined to stick it out and perhaps go down fighting, but it's very hard to see him getting to the general election ballot unless a clown car full of over-eager Republicans runs against him in the primary. Democrats are going to target this swing seat no matter what happens, but right now, as unlikely as it may be, they're rooting for Guinta to hang on for dear life.
Senate:
• CA-Sen, 46: Unreal. This is one of the grossest things we've seen from a Democratic candidate in a long while. Here's Rep. Loretta Sanchez, demonstrating a "war whoop" to describe an East Indian supporter she once met with:
"So I'm going to his office, thinkin' that I'm going to go meet with a," she said, holding her hand in front of her mouth and making an echo sound. "Right? ... because he said Indian American."
Fellow Democrats pounded Sanchez, a newly minted Senate candidate who
stumbled badly in her first week, until she
coughed up an apology, but this is the kind of display that could (and probably should) prove disqualifying. What makes this more problematic is that Sanchez, whom the
Sacramento Bee politely labeled as "unscripted," has an unfortunate history of racially clueless remarks: In her 2010 re-election campaign, she said that "Vietnamese and Republicans" were attempting "to take this seat from us … and give it to this Van Tran, who is very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic." (Tran is Vietnamese, and Sanchez had to apologize then, too.)
One thing Sanchez may actually understand, though, is how precarious her situation is. She waited months to get into the race for retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer's open seat, a delay that allowed state Attorney General Kamala Harris to raise millions and consolidate support from the Democratic establishment. After her dismaying blunder, Sanchez was asked if she might instead seek re-election to the House. Her response was very telling:
"I am running for the United States Senate, and we're running full bore to talk to people up and down California, and we think that by the time we finish, and [the June 2016 primary] rolls around, we're going to be moving into the general election."
Sanchez's failure to actually answer the question put to her means she hasn't ruled out the possibility of a quick about-face. It would be a humiliating climb-down, but it wouldn't be any more humiliating than what Sanchez has already put herself through.
Sanchez's slim chances always depended on her doing well with Hispanic and Southern California voters. But Xavier Becerra, another Latino House member from Southern California, says he's still looking at running and expects to make up his mind by August. A strong Sanchez campaign launch might have persuaded Becerra to stay put, but this disaster isn't going to scare him off.
• MD-Sen: It's been a long time since we heard anything from Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, but he's still keeping his name in contention. Ruppersberger tells Capital News Service that he's likely to decide by the summer, adding that his "popular polling is very high in the Baltimore area. If I'm the only one from Baltimore, I'll consider it." Of course, that's a big if. While both announced candidates, Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen, hail from the D.C. area, Baltimore-based congressman Elijah Cummings is mulling a bid. John Sarbanes, another local congressman, has yet to rule anything out either.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: Sen. David Vitter continues to scoop up big GOP endorsements, with House Majority Whip Steve Scalise joining the pile. Unlike his House colleagues John Fleming and Charles Boustany, the powerful Scalise probably isn't looking for a Senate appointment (though he likely wouldn't say no if it were offered). Freshman Rep. Ralph Abraham endorsed Vitter last month, leaving Garrett Graves as the only GOP member of the delegation who isn't backing the senator yet.
• NC-Gov: Sometimes, a candidate has been all-but-running for so long that you just can't muster up any excitement when they actually get in. So it is with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, who finally confirmed on Saturday that he's going to challenge Republican Gov. Pat McCrory next year. Cooper is unlikely to face any real primary opposition, and polls forecast a tight general election.
House:
• LA-03: Rep. Charles Boustany is one of a few Republicans hoping that David Vitter will appoint them to the Senate should he win this year's gubernatorial contest. If Boustany departs, it's a good bet that we'll see a crowded GOP contest in his Romney 66-32 southwest Louisiana seat, and one local politician is already taking a look here. The Advocate's Will Sentell reports that state Rep. Brett Geymann is publicly expressing interest in succeeding Boustany. Geymann is termed-out next year but since Louisiana holds its legislative elections this year, other legislators wouldn't need to sacrifice their seats to run. (Update: This item has been rewritten to reflect that Geymann is termed-out.)
• NV-04: Three Democrats are already challenging freshman Republican Cresent Hardy in this Obama 54-44 seat, and we might be about to have our fourth contender. Via Jon Ralston, former state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera says that he's "north of 90 percent" for getting in. Hardy's going to have a tough time next year no matter who he faces, but Oceguera may give him his best shot at victory. Back in 2012, Oceguera ran a disastrous campaign over in the neighboring 3rd District, spending months refusing to say if he'd have voted for Obamacare. If he runs this time, maybe we'll finally find out?
• VA-10: Despite Barbara Comstock's easy win last year, Democrats are hoping to target the freshman Northern Virginia Republican in this Romney 50-49 seat before she can become entrenched. Roll Call recently noted that state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, Del. Kathleen Murphy, and non-profit director Cathleen Magennis Wyatt are being recruited, though Wexton and Murphy are unlikely to decide on anything until this year's legislative elections are over in November. The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner also tells us that local Democrats see Shenandoah University professor Karen Schultz as a potentially strong candidate. Schultz considered running here in 2014 but she deferred to eventual nominee John Foust. Schultz acquitted herself well in 2007, with her only narrowly losing a state Senate bid.
Other Races:
• CA State Senate: Tuesday's runoff in California's 7th Senate District in the East Bay features two Democrats facing off against one another, but don't be fooled into thinking this isn't a high-stakes race. Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla has the support of labor and environmental groups, who have spent big for her. On the other side is Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer, a longtime advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown. Despite that connection, Glazer has a terrible relationship with labor, and plenty of Democrats are furious at him for endorsing Republican Catharine Baker's successful Assembly bid last year.
Altogether, a monstrous $7 million has been dropped here. While Obama won this seat 61-37, the district's Republican minority could decide this contest, and they're likely to overwhelmingly back Glazer.
• Jacksonville Mayor: Voters head to the polls Tuesday, and a new poll indicates we're in for a barnburner. VancoreJones Communications takes a look at the contest on behalf of a conservative business group, and gives Republican Lenny Curry a 44-43 edge over Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown. The only other recent poll we've seen comes from St. Pete Polls, and they showed Curry up 49-45. (Hat-Tip Marc Caputo).
Jacksonville is a conservative city, and Brown always knew he was in for a tough race. However, as Tyler Yeargain reminds us in a great preview to this contest, Brown may have alienated too many Democrats. While Brown's reluctance to back Obama in 2012 and refusal to side with Charlie Crist in last year's gubernatorial contest could have earned him some crossover support, there's a real chance it will depress base turnout when all is said and done. We'll find out Tuesday if Brown can pull off a second win in this red area.
• Nashville Mayor: We have a while to go before the Aug. 6 non-partisan primary, but two candidates just released internal polls. First up is a May Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey from wealthy developer Bill Freeman, which we've summarize below:
• Real estate executive Bill Freeman: 20
• Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry: 16
• Councilor Megan Barry: 16
• Businesswoman Linda Eskind Rebrovick: 9
• Attorney Charles Robert Bone: 5
• Former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox: 4
• Charter school founder Jeremy Kane: 4
A previously unreleased Freeman poll from early April showed Gentry beating Barry 27-13, with Freeman at 11. Freeman has been
airing ads, though it's unclear how much he's spending.
Gentry has also released his own poll, also conducted in May. The results of the Mellman Group survey are below:
• Gentry: 21
• Freeman: 19
• Barry: 10
• Rebrovick: 8
• Bone: 6
• Fox: 4
• Kane: 2
Most of the candidates haven't spent very much yet, so expect things to change before August. As the only African American candidate in the contest, Gentry has a good chance to advance to the runoff, but a lot is up in the air here.
• Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
New Hampshire House, Rockingham-32: This is an open Republican seat encompassing the towns of Candia, Deerfield, Northwood, and Nottingham. The Democratic candidate is Maureen Mann, who won this seat in 2012 by 21 votes but lost it 55-45 in 2014. She also held this seat from 2007 to 2010 when it elected five representatives; it's a single-member floterial seat now.
The Republican nominee is Yvonne Dean-Bailey, a 19-year-old college freshman at a school in Massachusetts (Scott Brown has apparently started a trend here). Mitt Romney carried this seat 54-45 in 2012, while Scott Brown and Walt Haverstein both won it 54-46 in 2014.
Pennsylvania SD-05: This is the seat vacated by Lt. Gov. Mike Stack, located in northeast Philadelphia. The candidates are Democratic state Rep. John Sabatina Jr. and Republican Tim Dailey, a high school teacher. This district went 63-36 for President Obama in 2012.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: The discussion of demographics and politics has taken a rather morbid turn lately, with a number of stories talking about the role of death (or, more broadly, generational replacement). Daniel McGraw, writing for Politico magazine, has a provocative addition to that trend, with a piece titled "The GOP is dying off. Literally." His article is based on some interesting math, combining exit polls with mortality data from the Census Bureau. He uses that to conclude that of the 61 million people who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, 2.75 million of them will be missing from the electorate in 2016 (inasmuch as they'll be dead). Of course, that's a two-way street, but only 2.3 million of the 66 million people who voted for Barack Obama instead (who are disproportionately younger) will die in that same period, a disparity of 453,000.
There are some nuances here that McGraw's article doesn't go into, though. For one thing, you may remember the discussion only a few weeks ago of how premature death rates among African-Americans have their own negative impact on Democratic political fortunes. Also, there's simply the matter that this is an ongoing, perpetual problem; the same trend of Republican-leaning voters dying at a greater rate applied in 2008 ... and yet, Mitt Romney got more votes than John McCain. The slow erosion doesn't happen at a rate fast enough to outweigh other, bigger shifts in the electorate.
• Primaries: Tuesday brings us one of the year's biggest election nights, with Kentucky's unpredictable and nasty GOP gubernatorial primary headlining. We also have a Democratic mayoral primary in Philadelphia and a general election in Jacksonville, Florida to watch. Check out our primary preview for a rundown of each contest, as well as poll closing times: We'll be liveblogging the proceedings starting at 6 ET.
• Votes: The House voted on the "Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act" last Wednesday; the bill passed with 238 Republican and four Democratic yes votes, to 180 Democratic and four Republican no votes. The four Dems who voted yes were three of the 'usual suspects,' Henry Cuellar, Dan Lipinski, and Collin Peterson, along with Rhode Island's Jim Langevin. The four Republicans were also three of the ones likeliest to break ranks (Bob Dold, Charlie Dent, and Richard Hanna) along with Rodney Frelinghuysen.
As a reminder of how far the Democrats have come, in terms of being nearly united on this issue, think back to our post from earlier this year on what happened to the 64 Dems who voted yes on the Stupak Amendment in 2009. Of that 64, only 12 remain (between losses and retirements -- though, of course, if the Dems still had a majority in the House, it'd probably include significantly more Blue Dogs in rural districts, meaning that we wouldn't likely have that same level of unity). And of those 12, only three voted 'yes' on a similar bill in 2015 to exclude abortion coverage from ACA plans. Who were those three? Once again, it was Cuellar, Lipinski, and Peterson.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.