The map shows Americans are strong backers of renewable energy.
David Roberts at Vox
has taken a look at a study and accompanying maps about Americans' views on climate change and related subjects included in a study by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. The study was published in the peer-reviewed
Nature Climate Change in April. You can see the interactive versions of the maps
here.
The researchers undertook their task because "existing polls provide, at best, a limited view of the distribution and variation of opinions at the local scales relevant for many decision makers." Polling nationally doesn't include enough people in each state, much less each congressional district or county to get a good representation. And polling all of these jurisdictions would cost too much. So:
Fortunately, statisticians have recently developed reliable and accurate methods to take national survey data, and “downscale” this data to local snapshots. The technical name for this method is “multilevel regression and poststratification.” We collected over 13,000 survey responses from polls done by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication. We then built a model using this approach that leveraged this large dataset to provide estimates of popular climate beliefs in all 50 states, all 435 congressional districts, all 3,143 U.S. counties and 381 metropolitan areas.
The results are both disturbing and encouraging.
Follow me below the orange tangle to commentary on the study.
Roberts condensed the findings, which I am condensing even further:
1) Most Americans believe the climate is changing [...]
2) Not even half of Americans believe humans are responsible
If human carbon dioxide emissions are not responsible for global warming, then there's no reason to reduce human carbon dioxide emissions. Though scientists are 95 percent certain humans are the dominant influence on recent climate change, majorities believe that only in a few coastal and urban areas. [...]
3) Even fewer Americans believe there's a scientific consensus on climate change [...]
4) Fewer than half of Americans believe climate change is hurting the US now [...]
5) Most Americans believe climate change will harm future generations [...]
6) Everybody loves renewable energy
This is the strongest public consensus of all. Americans love renewable energy. They want to research it, subsidize it, support it, mandate it, whatever it takes, even in Kansas. Across demographic and partisan lines, they love it.
7) Everybody loves limiting carbon emissions [...]
8) Support for a carbon tax remains low, even when the revenue is refunded
Generally, the public's policy preferences are the opposite of economists'. The public likes directly subsidizing clean energy and directly limiting pollutants, policies that hide costs from consumers. It doesn't like gas taxes or carbon taxes, policies that make costs transparent.
The widespread positive opinions about renewables are very good news. Not all that surprising because people are seeing jobs and other money coming from manufacture and installation of renewables, and ever more people are saving on their utility bills from rooftop solar. Despite the whining still to be heard from many politicians and Foxaganda about how the "sun doesn't shine at night" and "the wind doesn't blow all the time" investors are looking at the bottom line and seeing a good return on renewables investment and trouble when it comes to sinking more money into coal and, recently, tar sands.
For example, in Iowa wind power is backed by Republicans as well as Democrats. As of the end of 2014, 28.5 percent of its electricity was being generated by wind. That makes a difference on all kinds of levels. Wind-related investments in the state add up to around $10 billion since 2004. There are about 6,000 wind-related jobs in the state. And Iowans pay 30 percent less for electricity than do the residents of Wisconsin, where only 2 percent of electricity comes from wind.
By adding about one-third more wind power over the next 15 years, which is considerably less than what is likely to be built, Iowa could meet proposed federal greenhouse gas emissions controls. If lawsuits and other opposition don't foul up those controls, Iowa will be required to reduce its emissions 16 percent by 2030.
Since a hefty portion of emissions obviously can be eliminated by ramping up renewable installations—Gov. Jerry Brown seeks 50 percent renewable in California by 2030—right now would be an excellent time for passing federal policies that accelarate the renewables transition that is essential to lessen the impact of global warming.
Just one obstacle. Congress. Not exactly a hotbed of climate hawks.
But the Yale Project's assessment shows that even though Americans in the aggregate are confused and contradictory when it comes to their views on climate change, there would be no need for climate hawk activists not in Congress to alter their message on renewables. The public support is already there.
Hint for reporters and bloggers: Questions for all the candidates—not just presidential ones but all the way down to the municipal level—ought to reflect this public support. "What [local, state, regional, federal, international] policies will you initiate or support to speed up the transition to renewable energy?"
Anybody who answers that question with some form of climate change denial or delay ought to be x'd off the list of candidates to support.