If you think I can't win, you've got another think coming, Brothers and Sisters!
In 2003, with progressive friends, I watched the TV coverage as then Senator Hillary Clinton, and numerous other (still otherwise respected) Senate Democrats, spoke and voted in favor of President George Bush's Authorization to Use Military Force in Iraq. My friends and I despaired over Senator Clinton's speech and vote, though we hadn't really expected her to oppose the AUMF. But if we hated the deed, we understood the political pressures involved, some unavoidably gender related, for a woman with Presidential ambitions; still, we admired and favored the doer. If afforded the chance, all of us would have picked her for President even in that awful moment. Most of what we knew about Hillary Clinton today, we knew then, too, yet we didn't think then that her corporate ties or loyalties or other proclivities disqualified her. I haven't changed my mind about any of that.
Still, that was then, this is now. Now, I no longer believe that Secretary Clinton will win the nomination. I believe that Senator Bernie Sanders will win that nomination and go on to win the general election. Step out into the tall grass for my reasons for that, along with some similar conclusions by more distinguished voices than mine.
I see three tactical areas where Senator Sanders' campaign has learned from Republican election successes in recent decades: placing blame, simplifying program and simplifying message.
Regarding blame --
Republicans usually prefer to try to place blame for conditions.
Democrats prefer to try to understand and explain conditions.
Regarding program --
Republicans are usually satisfied to do nothing for people different from themselves.
Democrats often want to do difficult, hard to explain and expensive things for the good of all.
Regarding message --
Republicans usually have a simple (see Frank Luntz) explanation for every stupid thing they want.
Democrats, mostly, don't try to simplify reality and find scant use for bumper sticker thinking.
But Bernie has learned from our Republican Brothers and Sisters. He knows who to blame and is happy to say so. He knows what to blame them for. He knows what to do about it. And, it can fit on bumper stickers. In a Presidential campaign, this kind of tactical jujitsu could be a game changer.
I believe that Senator Sanders is applying these tactics in his Presidential campaign:
Regarding blame --
Democrats, very unlike Republicans, rarely place blame, for America's perceived problems, upon whole classes or segments of society. But where blame is deserved, Senator Sanders has been very explicit about whom to blame for America's failings as seen in the lives of ordinary Americans. It's the Billionaire Class, the Oligarchs and the Too Big To Fail Banks. Almost every voter in America is not one of those things.
Regarding program --
This boils down to what must be done about the folks we're blaming. This is where everything converges, and here Senator Sanders takes a page from George W. Bush's campaign book, by keeping his sights on just a few big ideas: Income Inequality, Climate and Clean Government.
Regarding message --
Much of Bernie's campaign has a very helpful, simple, us versus them character. Simple messages abound.
Free College
Get Money out of Politics
Break Up Too Big To Fail Banks
Fight Climate Disaster
Fight Income Inequality
Healthcare is a Right
Defeat the Oligarchs
Tax the Billionaires
Tax Wall Street.
Those are just the results of a few minutes of solo brainstorming. Senator Sanders' messages have the virtue of being much simpler than we often find to be the case for a Democrat. Further, Republicans have little hope of effectively defending the billionaire class, oligarchs and super-sized banks. at least not with a simple message or real facts. There is nothing quite like a political campaign built around winning issues, and Senator Sanders campaign seems to be just that at this moment in America.
I am not the only nut around here who finds hope for Senator Sanders' campaign, though others travel a different road to the idea. Last week GoGoEverton laboriously reviewed the Democratic Primary picture and concluded that Senator Sanders could win the Democratic Nomination. In a widely recommended post, Roger Fox, opined that if nominated, Senator Sanders would beat the Republican challenger. Finally, just last week, investigative historian Eric Zuesse, posted an issue-polling based analysis of electorate sentiment on Washington's Blog blog. He concluded Senator Bernie Sanders will win both the nomination and the General Election.
I still respect and admire Secretary Clinton. But she doesn't even have an issues page on her website. Well, while she is listening, Bernie Sanders is leading and there are signs that he is leading the right people for the right reasons in the right direction. And, by right, of course, I mean left.
