Which Senators’ climate-denialism is a political liability for their re-election? Based on their vote on the Schatz Amendment, which asked Senators whether they thought climate change was real and caused by humans, the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication identified a list of vulnerable climate change denying senators.
Their research identifies three particularly vulnerable incumbent Senators:
Florida’s Marco Rubio, voted against the Schatz Amendment even though 14 percent of Florida’s voters are more likely to believe climate change is human caused, than not
Nevada’s Dean Heller, even though 16 percent of Nevada’s voters are more likely to believe climate change is human-caused
Colorado’s Cory Gardner, in his state 17 percent of voters are more likely to believe that climate change is caused by humans.
Taking a closer look at these seats, we see Gardner will not be up for election until 2020. Unless he changes his tune on climate, I predict he will be a very vulnerable incumbent at that time, particularly because 2020 will be a presidential election year with high turnout that helps Democrats. Dean Heller will not be up for re-election until 2018. I imagine Heller could be vulnerable at that time as more voters become concerned about climate. But the real story in Nevada will be the 2016 open seat with incumbent Harry Reid’s retirement. Nevada public opinion shows addressing climate could be a winning argument in this state next year, paving the way for a climate champion to replace Reid. As for Rubio, he has said he won’t be running for his 2016 seat, which means we will have an open seat in a state where addressing climate could prove to be a real political benefit for the winning candidate.
These races are a little far-off. So what can climate voters get going on right now? With that in mind, I've put together a list of seven 2016 Senate races where climate voters could make a difference, today:
Nevada (Open)
Florida (Open)
Wisconsin (Johnson)
Ohio (Portman)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)
North Carolina (Burr)
Illinois (Kirk).
Along with the open seats we have already identified in Nevada and Florida, the list includes five vulnerable climate-denying Senators up for re-election in 2016. Four voted against the Schatz Amendment: Johnson in Wisconsin (where climate voters are +12), Toomey in Pennsylvania (+11), Burr in North Carolina(+10) and Portman of Ohio (+9).
As mentioned in a previous post, while Illinois Senator Ron Kirk voted right on Schatz, he is fighting the EPA Clean Power Plan, and Cook Political Report rates his seat a toss-up like Johnson’s, so that makes seven.
So, in seven 2016 Senate races, candidates voicing support for addressing climate could be propelled to victory. And all of these states, except for Illinois, are also presidential battleground states, so climate voters will be able to weigh in twice regarding our climate leadership, once for President and once for Senator.
Climate Voters start your engines!