Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan, the GOP's presumptive special election nominee
Leading Off:
• NY-11: While Republican Dan Donovan has sounded a few uncertain notes over his failure to obtain an indictment in the Eric Garner case, it sounds like Democrats are ready to drop the issue in the special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Mike Grimm. John Gulino, chair of the Staten Island Democratic Party, was quite clear in saying he hopes the race will be about anything but Garner:
"I don't think the race is a national referendum. There are many, many issues affecting this congressional district. I'm hoping this becomes about all of the issues. I don't want that to be the end all and be all."
Hank Sheinkopf, a local consultant who's always good for a quote, was even blunter:
"Traditional campaigns on Staten Island are about how everybody hates us and doesn't understand us. The best way to elect Dan Donovan is to make Eric Garner the issue. It would do [Democrats] as much good to send him boxes of chocolate candies and send checks to his campaign."
Indeed, stoking that kind of resentment is exactly how Grimm won re-election last fall despite an indictment for tax fraud hanging over his head. And the numbers back up this sentiment as well. While New York City voters as a whole are quite disappointed in how the Garner case turned out (and disapprove of the hostility the police department reacted with toward Mayor Bill de Blasio),
Staten Island is its own universe. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Staten Islanders despise de Blasio, are very supportive of the police, and think that the Garner grand jury made the right call.
This is a serious problem because Staten Island is contained entirely in the 11th District and makes up 65 percent of its population. The rest is contained in a slice of south-western Brooklyn that includes the neighborhoods of Bensonhurst and Bay Ridge. Even the Brooklyn portion of the district isn't especially liberal: Voters there went for Obama by a 54-45 margin in 2012. But Staten Islanders are even less so, supporting Obama by a narrow 51-48 spread.
On paper, that still balances out to a 52-47 Obama seat, so you'd expect Democrats to be competitive here. But when you add in the low turnout a special election is likely to yield plus the eternal chip on Staten Island's shoulder that's only grown more inflamed lately, it's going to be a very difficult race.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: The DSCC has made it no secret that state Attorney General Kamala Harris is their preferred candidate, and other national Democrats are getting behind her. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already deployed her massive email list to help Harris, and her colleague Kirsten Gillibrand is also fundraising for her; Harris also earned the backing of Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Barbara Lee. On Friday, the attorney general scored her first major state level endorsement as well, with Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins throwing Harris her support.
Harris so far hasn't scared potential rivals like billionaire Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa out of the race. However, on Friday Democratic Rep. Karen Bass ruled out a run. Bass never seemed incredibly excited about going for a promotion, so this isn't much of a surprise.
• NV-Sen: Republican Brian Krolicki left the lieutenant governor's office earlier this month, and he's already considering his next move. Krolicki is considering a race for governor in 2018, but more intriguingly to GOP strategists he's also talking about running against Democratic Sen. Harry Reid in 2016.
The NRSC is working hard to recruit Gov. Brian Sandoval for the Senate race but he's reluctant to go for it, and Krolicki could be an acceptable backup option. Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers is already in but he doesn't have many Republicans enthusiastic. State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson may also run, but he has plenty of conservative detractors. As Ray Hagar of the Reno Gazette-Journal notes, Krolicki has managed to avoid making intra-party enemies, which is no small feat in the fractious Nevada Republican Party.
This isn't the first time Krolicki has thought about a Senate bid. In late 2008 he created an exploratory committee for a planned 2010 run against Reid, but he was soon indicted for allegedly misappropriating public funds. The case forced Krolicki to pull the plug on his Senate campaign but the charges were later thrown out, and he won his subsequent 2010 re-election by a 51-42 margin. But if Krolicki does seek higher office again, Nevada Democrats will likely bring his ethics into question.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Attorney General Jack Conway has looked like the presumptive Democratic nominee for a while, but that may be about to change. State House Speaker Greg Stumbo is mulling a bid, and says he will decide in the next few weeks. The filing deadline is Jan. 27, so Stumbo will need to make up his mind very quickly. Some Democrats are a bit skeptical that a Louisville-based candidate like Conway can appeal to the conservative rural Democrats they'll need to hold this open seat; Stumbo represents an eastern Kentucky seat, and he could conceivably connect better with this group.
Because Kentucky holds legislative elections in even-numbered years (I have no idea why) Stumbo wouldn't have to give up his powerful post if he wants to run. However, it's anyone's guess how long Kentucky Democrats will hold the speaker's chair. The party beat back a well-funded Republican effort to flip the chamber in 2014, but it's probably only a matter of time before Team Red finally breaks through in this conservative state. Stumbo may decide it's better to run for governor in 2015 than find himself serving as minority leader a few years later.
This isn't the first time Stumbo, who served as attorney general from 2003 to 2007, has eyed higher office. In 2007 he was Bruce Lunsford's running mate during the gubernatorial primary (the ticket lost to now-Gov. Steve Beshear), and he actually set up an exploratory committee to run for U.S. Senate to run against Sen. Mitch McConnell for the following year. Stumbo ultimately decided to return to the state House instead and he quickly became speaker soon afterwards; we'll see if he has more fire in his belly this time.
• MO-Gov: On Thursday quarterly fundraising reports were due in the Show Me State, which will host an open-seat gubernatorial race next year. Former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway is the only credible Republican currently running, and she has $1.3 million on hand. At least $900,000 of that comes from one guy, prominent GOP donor Rex Sinquefield: Such is life in a state with no contribution limits.
Fellow Republican and state Auditor Tom Schweich is considering a run, and he would start out with $1 million in his statewide campaign account. 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner is also thinking about jumping in and he could self-fund if he wants to. On the Democratic side, likely nominee Chris Koster has yet to file his report.
House:
• IL-10: So do you know which Republican now sits in the bluest House seat in the nation? That would be Bob Dold!, who defeated Democrat Brad Schneider last year in the suburban Chicago 10th District, a seat that went for Barack Obama by a 58-41 margin. While those numbers are a bit inflated thanks to Illinois being the president's home state, this is an absolute must-target seat for 2016.
So it's no surprise that, as we've mentioned previously, the DCCC is already recruiting Schneider, who lost by just four points in November. Schneider also reportedly has put his campaign gear in storage rather than ditch it, but this week, in his first public remarks on whether he might seek a rematch, he was non-committal. In fact, he didn't sound very excited by the prospect of a third go-round with Dold, whom Schneider first beat in 2012:
"I loved the job, but hated the campaign. If we had done everything we had done well twice as well, eliminated all mistakes, we still would've lost."
Despite the district's liberal lean, this is one of those suburban areas that has long been Republican, and Democrats don't have the strongest of benches here. That makes Schneider, a stronger fundraiser and a close ideological fit for the district, the D-Trip's top choice to reclaim this seat. Whether Schneider feels the same way, of course, is what matters most.
• NE-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford will have a giant red target on his back in 2016 as the GOP looks to retake this 53-46 Romney Omaha seat, but he may have more immediate problems to deal with. Scott Kleeb, who was the Democratic nominee in the 3rd District in 2006 and for U.S. Senate in 2008, is contemplating a primary challenge from the left against the centrist Ashford. Kleeb's wife Jane notes that they live outside the district in Hastings, which is a few hours away from Omaha, but hints that they may move to the big city.
Kleeb did relatively well in his 2006 bid, holding now-Rep. Adrian Smith to a 55-45 win in the redder-than-red NE-03. However, his Senate bid against Mike Johanns didn't go so well; Kleeb lost 58-40, and didn't do well at all in the 2nd District. Kleeb may be able to gain some traction against Ashford from the left, where he recently voted for the Keystone XL pipeline and for the GOP's immigration bill. But Kleeb would probably have a much harder time holding this already difficult seat than Ashford, and national party leaders would not be happy to see the congressman face a credible primary challenge.
Other Races:
• Anchorage Mayor: When former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich began flirting with a return to his old post he left a lot of would-be candidates in limbo. However, Anchorage Chamber of Commerce president Andrew Halcro is tired of waiting, and on Tuesday he announced he was running. Halcro served in the state House as a Republican but ran as an independent for governor in 2006, picking up 9 percent of the vote. The filing deadline is Feb. 13, so Begich and the other potential contenders have a little longer to decide what to do.
• Columbus Mayor: After Democratic Mayor Michael Coleman announced that he would not run again, the GOP initially expressed optimism that they could pick up the seat this November. However two of their top picks, state Sen. Jim Hughes and Franklin County Prosecutor Ron O'Brien, declined to run. Instead, the Republicans have consolidated behind former Columbus School Board President Terry Boyd, with the county central committee endorsing him on Thursday. Some Republicans think that Boyd can be a strong candidate, but he'll have an uphill climb in this increasingly blue city.
On the Democratic side, Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott and Columbus City Council President Andrew Ginther have been dueling for a while. The filing deadline is Feb. 4 so we'll know soon enough if anyone else jumps in. The non-partisan primary is May 5, and the top-two vote-getters will advance to the general.
• Indianapolis Mayor: It seems that no one in either party wants to take on Democrat Joe Hogsett in this year's open seat race. Back in November Republican former Councilor Scott Keller sounded likely to jump in, but on Wednesday he announced he wouldn't go for it. Two days later, Deputy Mayor Olgen Williams became the latest person to rule out a run. The filing deadline is Feb. 6 so there's a little time left for the GOP to muster up a candidate if they want to hold this seat, but it's not looking good for them.
• Memphis Mayor: Democratic Mayor A C Wharton scored an easy win here in the 2009 special and in his 2011 re-election, but it looks like his campaign for a second full term won't be as smooth. Several potential candidates have made noises about challenging him, and on Thursday Councilor Jim Strickland entered the race. Strickland is planning to make the city's crime rate a major issue as he seeks to become the first white mayor since Dick Hackett narrowly lost re-election in 1991.
The filing deadline isn't until July 17 so it may be a while before the field comes into focus. The first round of the non-partisan election will be held Oct. 8 and if no one takes a majority, the two candidates with the most votes advance to Nov. 3.
• VA State House: On Tuesday, we saw one of the weirdest election results in recent memory. Democratic Del. Joe Morrissey had resigned from office after being indicted for statutory rape, but he quickly turned around and ran as an independent in the special election to replace himself. Shockingly Morrissey won an easy 42-33 victory... even though he's in the middle of a prison sentence! Both parties are contemplating expelling him from the House of Delegates, but they need to deal with the uncomfortable fact that his district did just elect him, warts and all.
And it turns out he has way more warts than we thought. Over at her excellent "This Week in Statehouse Action" blog, Carolyn Fiddler details Morrissey's many issues. His current stint in prison isn't even his first: He was jailed all the way back in 1991 for writing a judge a threatening letter. Also, there's that little incident with him brandishing an AK-47 on the floor of the state House. The whole thing is just absolutely jaw dropping and worth reading in full.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.