Departing Republican Rep. Chris Gibson
On Tuesday morning, Republican Rep. Chris Gibson
announced that he would retire from his competitive Upstate New York House seat at the end of his term. Gibson had
repeatedly pledged to serve no more than four terms, but his early departure is still a surprise. We likely haven't seen the last of Gibson though, with him contemplating a 2018 statewide bid.
Obama carried New York's 19th District 52-46 in 2012, a little better than his national popular vote margin. However, the largely rural Hudson Valley seat, which includes communities like Hyde Park and Cooperstown, maintains some of its ancestral Republican leanings. Gibson managed to win 53-47 even as Obama was carrying his seat, and the GOP bench is quite strong here. Gibson has a reputation as a formidable campaigner and Democrats will be relieved to see him go, but this seat is no automatic pickup for the blue team.
It's far too early to say who will run here on either side, but Nick Reisman of State of Politics gives us some potential names. On the Democratic side Reisman names Ulster County Executive Mike Hein, whom he describes as "polished and well known." Former state Sen. Terry Gipson is another potential candidate, though he recently lost his seat by a 52-48 margin in the 2014 GOP wave. And 2014 nominee Sean Eldridge could also run again, though plenty of Democrats would prefer he didn't. Gibson successfully portrayed Eldridge as a carpetbagger, and dealt him a devastating 65-35 defeat.
On the Republican side, Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin is a prospective candidate. Reisman notes that he's a well-known critic of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which could help with conservative primary voters. Other possible Republican contenders include Rensselaer County Executive Kathy Jimino; Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro; Assemblyman Pete Lopez; and state Sen. Jim Seward. In the coming days we should have a better sense of who's interested and who isn't. We'll definitely be watching this swingy seat all cycle at Daily Kos Elections.