The House voted Friday morning to force President Obama's hand on the Keystone XL pipeline. The tally was 266-153, with one Republican voting "present" and 28 Democrats joining the rest of the GOP caucus.
While that may seem like victory, the pipeline's backers need 290 votes to override a threatened presidential veto, and they obviously are not going to get that many. In the Senate, supporters have more than enough Democratic votes for a filibuster-proof approval of the bill. But they need 67 for a veto override, and they seem likely only to get 64 at most—54 Republicans and 9 or 10 Democrats.
The bill, H.R. 3, is designed to transfer authority for granting a permit to build the northern leg of the pipeline from the president to Congress. Approval of international bridges, tunnels, conveyor belts and pipelines has been a presidential prerogative for more than 130 years. Since 1968, these have been handled first under President Lyndon Johnson's Executive Order 11423 and most recently under President George W. Bush's updated Executive Order 13337. Both delegated the evaluation of such projects to the State Department.
In a statement issued by the White House Wednesday, the administration said:
H.R. 3 seeks to circumvent longstanding and proven processes for determining whether cross- border pipelines serve the national interest by authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline project prior to the completion of the Presidential Permitting process. In doing so, it would cut short consideration of important issues relevant to the national interest.
Because H.R. 3 conflicts with longstanding Executive branch procedures regarding the authority of the President and prevents the thorough consideration of complex issues that could bear on U.S. national interests (including serious security, safety, environmental, and other ramifications), if presented to the President, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto this bill.
That isn't a flat-out rejection of the permit to build the pipeline. The State Department could still recommend approval and President Obama could agree. But many close observers believe the evidence since the president's June 2013 climate speech leans against approval of Keystone XL. However, predictions in the past about what the president might decide on certain issues have often missed the mark.
Here are the 28 Democratic defectors in the House: Brad Ashford, Nebraska; Sanford D. Bishop Jr., Georgia; Robert A. Brady, Pennsylvania; Cheri Bustos, Illinois; James E. Clyburn, South Carolina; Jim Cooper, Tennessee; Jim Costa, California; Henry Cuellar, Texas; Mike Doyle, Pennsylvania; Gwen Graham, Florida; Al Green, Texas; Gene Green, Texas; Sheila Jackson Lee, Texas; Daniel Lipinski, Illinois; Dave Loebsack, Iowa; Sean Patrick Maloney, New York; Patrick Murphy, Florida; Rick Nolan, Minnesota; Donald Norcross, New Jersey; Collin Peterson, Minnesota; Cedric L. Richmond, Louisiana; Kurt Schrader, Oregon; David Scott, Georgia; Terri Sewell, Alabama; Alberto Sires, New Jersey; Mark Veasey, Texas; Filemon Vela, Texas; Tim Walz, Minnesota.