Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate Katie McGinty
Leading Off:
• PA-Sen: As far as fundraising goes, Katie McGinty's gotten off to a good start: The former state cabinet official just announced that she raised $1 million in the two months since she entered the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's 2016 Senate contest and has $900,000 left in the bank. Given her broad establishment backing and relatively late entry, McGinty definitely had financial expectations to meet, and this haul probably satisfies them.
McGinty's take is also better than the best quarter her chief rival, ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, has put together ($728,000 in the April-to-June timeframe). Sestak hasn't yet revealed his third quarter totals; instead, he launched another leg of his march across Pennsylvania, walking 18 miles from Wilkes-Barre to Scranton. The problem with activities like this is that few voters will even notice whatever positive press you might earn, and most of it will be forgotten by Election Day. That's if you earn any press at all: Right now, a Google News search for "sestak AND (scranton OR wilkes-barre)" yields nothing.
3Q Fundraising:
• CA-17:
Mike Honda (D-inc): $350,000 raised, $545,000 on hand; Ro Khanna (D): $380,000 raised, $1.3 million on hand
• CA-24: Salud Carbajal (D): $407,000 raised, $801,000 on hand; Helene Schneider (D): $145,000 raised, $232,000 on hand; Justin Fareed (R): $207,000 raised
• IA-01: Monica Vernon (D): $253,000 raised, $564,000 on hand
• KY-06: Andy Barr (R-inc): $400,000 raised, $1.1 million on hand
• MI-01: Lon Johnson (D): $350,000 raised, $290,000 on hand
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: If Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is still thinking about running for Senate, then we've reached the point where she'd have to start running down the platform to catch that train as it chuffs its way out of the station. On Wednesday, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick earned the endorsement of the DSCC, and while that's by no means dispositive (see Alan Grayson, for instance), Sinema's not the sort who's well-positioned to run an insurgent, outsider campaign against the establishment choice. It would be nice, though—and probably smart politics for her as well—if she'd endorse Kirkpatrick herself.
• CO-Sen: Conservative radio host Dan Caplis has occasionally been mentioned as a possible candidate against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, and Caplis admits he's thinking about it. Caplis says he was prepared to support establishment favorite George Brauchler, but will take the next six to eight weeks to consider his own campaign since Brauchler won't run. Caplis mulled Senate bids for 2008 and 2010 but passed, and the NRSC is probably looking for someone with a lot more crossover appeal to face a formidable incumbent like Bennet.
• IL-Sen: Illinois Republicans are in a dilly of a pickle: Sen. Mark Kirk is almost certainly the only guy they have who's both sufficiently prominent and capable of pulling off the tricky-to-wear "moderate" outfit to give them a chance at holding his Senate seat next year. But Kirk's dangerous mouth keeps undermining his carefully composed look, which led one prominent local fundraiser to say over the summer that he'd like to see Kirk replaced on the ticket.
That uncomfortably public suggestion was quickly shouted down and retracted, but even if the GOP is indeed worried that Kirk's penchant for idiotic remarks presents a serious obstacle to his re-election, what alternatives do they have? No one, really, but Rep. Adam Kinzinger's willing to trying out for the part.
Kinzinger's certainly conservative, but lately, reports Crain's Chicago Business, he's been trying to remake his image and done a more moderate guise. Kinzinger still wants to defund Planned Parenthood (unlike Kirk)—the videos are "barbaric"—but he's smart enough to say things that make him sound like a dissenter from the GOP's hard line, like, "I'm worried that we're alienating the people we need to win" and "I'm not anti-federal government. I'm for a smaller, more efficient government."
So what's Kinzinger's angle? He says that the House won't be the last stop in his electoral career and that he'd run for something bigger "[i]f there's a need." Could that need involve, say, Mark Kirk stepping aside? Kinzinger would only say he has "no indication" that Kirk isn't running again. There are certainly stronger statements of support Kinzinger could have offered than that.
• MD-Sen: Even though Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings continues to be coy about his 2016 plans, it appears that he's still doing nothing to lay the groundwork for a Senate bid. Cummings hauled in just $136,000 during the last three months, which isn't the type of money you bring in if you're at all interested in running for higher office. Back in August, Cummings hired a prominent Senate fundraiser for his political action committee, but it appears this wasn't a sign that he was preparing for a Senate campaign after all. Cummings could always surprise us and give up his House seat to seek a promotion, but don't bet on it.
• NH-Sen: One Nation, a group we've never heard of before now, is spending $1.4 million on an ad campaign in support of GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Their spot praises Ayotte's work on women's health, including a reference to her work fighting for "over the counter contraception."
Gubernatorial:
• WV-Gov: While the Democrats have a competitive primary brewing, state Senate President Bill Cole has looked like the presumptive GOP nominee for a long time. All three of West Virginia's House members, including Cole's almost-rival David McKinley, have endorsed Cole, and it would be a huge surprise if anyone else jumps in at this point.
House:
• AZ-09: Former GoDaddy counsel Christine Jones, an also-ran for the 2014 GOP gubernatorial nomination, expressed interest in running for the House in March, but she went quiet soon after. However, Roll Call's Eli Yokley reports that Jones has been meeting with the NRCC ahead a possible bid against sophomore Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.
Jones has plenty of personal money to spend, and Obama only won thus suburban Phoenix seat 51-47. However, Sinema is a formidable incumbent who won re-election 55-42 during last year's GOP wave. A recent survey from Republican pollster MBQF gave Sinema a 46-33 lead in a hypothetical duel, meaning Jones would have to make up quite a lot of ground.
Jones also hasn't been free of controversy: She's defended Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio's tactics against undocumented immigrants, something that probably won't play well in a presidential cycle. It's also worth noting that the GOP hasn't had an easy time winning in this area recently: While Republicans won every statewide office last year, each of Team Blue's candidates carried the 9th District. If Jones runs, Sinema can't take anything for granted (assuming Sinema doesn't make a surprise Senate run), but it's hard to see the Democrat losing next year.
• CA-46: Ex-state Sen. Lou Correa faces several fellow Democrats for this open Orange County seat, but he's the only contender to boost any endorsements from his would-be colleagues. Rep. Pete Aguilar joins fellow Southern California House members Linda Sanchez, Karen Bass, Juan Vargas, and Alan Lowenthal in Correa's corner. With the possible exception of Lowenthal, who represents a neighboring seat, none of these members will probably move too many voters, but they could help with fundraising.
• MN-02: On Wednesday, ex-state Rep. Pam Myhra announced that she would run for this open swing seat. Local Republicans recently told Roll Call that they're afraid that Myhra may be too conservative to win here in a presidential year. So far, Myhra faces only ex-state Sen. John Howe for the GOP nod, though the GOP establishment is hoping that ex-state Sen. Ted Daley will get in.
Minnesota nominations are often decided at the party convention rather than in a primary, since candidates who don't receive the convention's endorsement often voluntarily drop out before voters get to have their say. Myhra herself says she'll end her campaign if someone else gets endorsed at the convention.
• MN-08: Republican rich guy Stewart Mills has suggested in a few different ways that he'd like to seek a rematch with Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan: He formed an exploratory committee; he scissored off his famous (or infamous) long locks; and now he's filed paperwork with the FEC. Mills still hasn't formally launched a bid, though, and you get a weird-looking 404 error if you actually visit the website listed in his "Statement of Organization."
• OH-08: On Wednesday, Butler County Auditor Roger Reynolds kicked off his bid for this safely red seat. So far, state Sen. Bill Beagle is the only other notable candidate running to succeed Speaker John Boehner here. State Senate President Keith Faber would have had a good chance to win, but he's announced that he won't go for it. It's possible that other contenders will jump in now that the powerful Faber is out.
Mayoral:
• Charlotte, NC Mayor: Voters went to the polls Tuesday for the Democratic primary runoff, and ex-Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jennifer Roberts defeated interim Mayor Dan Clodfelter 54-46. Roberts will face Republican Edwin Peacock in November. While the Queen City leans Democratic, Peacock only lost 53-47 here in 2013.
• Columbus, OH Mayor: Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott has far less money and fewer major endorsements than City Council President Andrew Ginther, a fellow Democrat, but he's hoping that he can use his outsider status to his advantage. Scott is out with his first ad since the May primary and he accuses Ginther of being "at the center of scandal after scandal at City Hall." The spot only briefly alludes to the red light camera scandal, where the former CEO of Redflex recently pled guilty to using the Ohio Democratic Party to bribe several politicians, including Ginther, in exchange for city contracts. (Ginther has not been charged with anything.) The ad then goes positive for Scott, arguing that he "cleaned up our streets. Now, Zach Scott is ready to clean up City Hall."
Other Races:
• Montgomery County, AL Commission: Ex-Rep. Artur Davis recently returned to the Democratic Party in preparation for a campaign for a seat on the Montgomery County Commission, but his fledgling bid may come to an end Oct. 16.
The state party has a law, known as the Radney Rule, that prevents a candidate who opposed the Democrats anytime over the past four years from running as a Democrat. Because Davis was a Republican until recently, at least two-thirds of the Executive Board of the State Democratic Executive Committee needs to vote to waive the Radney Rule in order for him to challenge Democratic incumbent Dan Harris. Last year, the state party voted to allow Parker Griffith, another Democratic-turned-Republican former congressman, to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nod, and Davis is arguing that they should follow precedent and give him the same right.
No one seems sure what how the committee will rule. Other former Republicans have been reinstated as Democrats, and some Alabama Democrats seem to think that it's only fair to treat Davis the same way. It's also quite possible that Davis will sue the committee if they reject him and force them to argue in court why they let Griffith and other defectors in but not him. The state part may just decide that the easiest course of action is to avoid a mess and just give Davis what he wants.
However, there's little doubt that Yellowhammer State Democrats are still angry with Davis. The former congressman voted against Obamacare while he was still a Democrat, and he memorably campaigned for Mitt Romney in 2012. Davis himself seems pretty apathetic about rejoining the party, saying that Alabama Democrats "don't have to support me in this race. In fact, they can work very hard for other candidates." We'll see soon if they do just that.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.