Matt Bevin has better things to do than show up at his stupid fundraiser
Leading Off:
• KY-Gov: Here's how the RGA's plan to whip Matt Bevin's campaign into shape is going: He showed up an hour late to a fundraiser that Sens. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, as well as Kentucky's entire GOP House delegation, hosted for him last week—just as guests were preparing to leave. And according to Politico's Kevin Robillard, the RGA has no plans to go back on the air for Bevin unless he contributes more of his own money to his cause. He's not, though, since Democrats are set to spend $1 million more than the GOP this week.
Bevin does have a new ad out, this one featuring his wife. Glenna Bevin declares that Democratic ads attacking her husband are "misleading" and "false," without any elaboration—we're simply supposed to take her word for it.
3Q Fundraising:
• CA-31:
Pete Aguilar (D-inc): $385,000 raised, $829,000 on hand
• FL-09: Susannah Randolph (D): $170,000 raised, $143,000 on hand
• IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $444,000 raised, $1.1 million on hand
• ME-02: Bruce Poliquin (R-inc): $450,000 raised
• NV-04: Susie Lee (D): $280,000 raised, $50,000 self-funded, $570,000 on hand
Senate:
• IN-Sen: Well, this doesn't look good for GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman. Stutzman's campaign manager, political director, and media group have all resigned in what ex-manager Brendon TelToro calls "a difference of opinion on the direction of the campaign." TelToro didn't elaborate much, simply saying that "Marlin and I had two different viewpoints on how best to run a Senate campaign and how to win. This is solely based on two different views on how to conduct that campaign."
Needless to say, it's rarely anything but a very bad sign when a huge portion of a campaign's brain trust quits in the middle of the race. In fact, we saw something similar happen to Georgia Republican Phil Gingrey's Senate campaign last year: Gingrey's departing general consultant even described the resignations the same way as TelToro did. Unsurprisingly, Gingrey couldn't recover and ended up taking a distant fourth place in the primary. The Indiana primary is May 3, so Stutzman doesn't have very long to right his ship.
• NH-Sen: There are generally two camps when it comes to polls of the New Hampshire Senate race: Republican pollsters, who see a blowout for their team, and everyone else, who sees a close race between GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Guess which side Gravis Marketing falls on? Their new poll has Ayotte up 52-42, not very different from her 51-43 margin in April.
Three more recent polls from PPP, Marist, and (ugh) UNH had the contest tight, while a couple of GOP surveys over the summer were similar to what Gravis sees now.
• OH-Sen: PG Sittenfeld faces tough odds in the Democratic primary against establishment favorite Ted Strickland, and he's hoping to boost his name recognition with some early advertising. Sittenfeld will air his first spot during Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate. The ad features several clips from past presidential debates, with Sittenfeld declaring that the party has a rich tradition of debating the issues. Sittenfeld then offers his "new agenda," to "reduce inequality, cut student loan debt, expand retirement security and protect our environment." In other words, the exact agenda that every mainstream Democrat pushes for.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: The Louisiana Water Coalition recently committed to spending another $625,000 against Republican David Vitter, and they're up with another ad assailing his past. The spot begins with reporters asking Vitter if he broke the law, before a woman declares that "Louisiana can't have a governor with so many dark secrets." This commercial doesn't directly bring up Vitter's 2007 prostitution scandal, but few viewers are going to be wondering what Vitter's "dark secrets" are. Louisiana Water Coalition is funded by a Baton Rouge law firm that's pissed at Vitter over his opposition to landowners' lawsuits against oil and gas companies, and they've declared that their main priority is stopping Vitter rather than supporting one of his three main rivals.
• WA-Gov: The GOP doesn't seem to think that Rep. Dave Reichert will challenge Gov. Jay Inslee next year, but we won't need to wonder for much longer. Reichert's spokesman says the congressman will announce his 2016 plans on Friday.
House:
• FL-23: Despite spending a month threatening to challenge DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic primary over her support for the Obama administration's deal with Iran, Miami-Dade school board member Martin Karp has announced that he won't jump in. Wasserman Schultz never looked particularly vulnerable, and it's unlikely that anyone serious will challenge the well-funded incumbent.
• MN-02: On Monday, Jason Lewis announced that he would run for this open swing seat. Lewis used to host a nationally syndicated conservative radio show, which could give him some good name recognition in the GOP contest. Of course, Democrats will be on the hunt for anything he's said that may not play so well here, and they may not need to look too hard.
Lewis unexpectedly quit his job in the middle of a show last year after an anti-tax monologue where he proclaimed, "We have erected a shrine called the welfare state and as a result we now resemble a nation with more takers than makers," and there's undoubtedly more material out there. Ex-state Sen. John Howe and ex-state Rep. Pam Myhra are also seeking the GOP nod, and the GOP establishment is hoping that ex-state Sen. Ted Daley will jump in.
• MO-01: In August, state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal didn't rule out challenging Rep. Lacy Clay in the primary for this safely blue St. Louis-area seat. Chappelle-Nadal recently opened up a campaign committee with the FEC, though she has yet to announce anything. If Chappelle-Nadal runs, she'll likely make Ferguson a major issue: Chappelle-Nadal has accused Clay of being invisible during last fall's unrest. (Hat-tip Politics1)
• NE-02: Freshman Democrat Brad Ashford has been very reluctant to raise money to defend his 53-46 Romney seat, but it seems that Ben Ray Lujan superglued him to a chair at DCCC headquarters and wouldn't free him until he made fundraising calls. Ashford raised $270,000 during the last three months, still less than a very vulnerable member should be bringing in, but a huge improvement over his $155,000 take last time.
• NY-13: Over the weekend, state Sen. Bill Perkins announced that he would run for this safely blue seat. Perkins represents about a third of this district in the legislature, and he claims that about 44 percent of the 2012 and 2014 primary vote came from his state Senate seat.
Perkins is far from the only Democrat who's hoping to succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel. Other candidates include Assemblyman Keith Wright, the powerful chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party; ex-Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, the son of former Rep. Adam Clayton Powell; and Suzan Johnson Cook, a former Obama administration official. State Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who came close to beating Rangel in 2012 and 2014, is also likely to run, and former DNC Political Director and 2012 candidate Clyde Williams has also signaled that he'll go for it.
Espaillat would benefit if he's the only Hispanic candidate against a field of black opponents, but he may not get so lucky. Politico says that Assemblyman Guillermo Linares, an old rival of Espaillat's, is a potential candidate, though Linares hasn't said anything publicly.
Mayoral:
• Houston, TX Mayor: According to conventional wisdom and the few polls we'd seen, state Rep. Sylvester Turner and ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, a fellow Democrat, are expected to take the top two spots in the Nov. 3 non-partisan primary. However, a new survey from the University of Houston and Rice University shows a tight race for the second place runoff spot:
State Rep. Sylvester Turner: 19
Ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia: 9
Ex-Kemah Mayor Bill King: 9
Ex-Rep. Chris Bell: 6
Councilor Stephen Costello: 5
Ex-City Attorney and 2013 candidate Ben Hall: 4
Businessman Marty McVey: 1
Back in June, UH and Rice showed Turner and Garcia
taking the top two spots, while King only took 3 percent. A recent survey on behalf of the Houston Association of Realtors also
gave Turner and Garcia the runoff slots, while King was 9 points behind. But King has been consolidating support from business conservatives, and he
has enough resources to compete.
King's allies are also arguing he's positioned to reach a runoff with Turner. The Houston Realty Business Coalition released a TargetPoint Consulting survey a few days before the UH/Rice poll came out: While Turner takes 24 percent, King edges Garcia 18-14 for second.
Turner may prefer to face King over Garcia. Turner has run for mayor twice before and while he's done very well with African Americans, he's struggled to make inroads elsewhere. The Houston Chronicle notes that other black candidates have had problems taking enough white and Hispanic voters to pull off a win. But a conservative independent like King would also face challenges in this Democratic leaning city, and he may be easier for Turner to beat than Garcia, who has a reputation as a moderate Democrat.
Both pollsters also looked at the November vote on the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance, but found very different results. UH/ Rice gave the pro-HERO yes side a 43-37 lead, while TargetPoint had the no side winning 40-31. The recent Houston Association of Realtors poll gave yes a 52-37 edge.
Other Races:
• KY-AG, SoS: Mason-Dixon takes a look at next month's races for state attorney general and secretary of state. In the former race, Democrat Andy Beshear posts a 45-39 lead against state Sen. Whitney Westerfield. Both national parties are spending considerable amounts of money here: Beshear, the son of outgoing Gov. Steve Beshear, is likely to be a major figure in state politics if he wins, giving the GOP every reason to stop him now. The only other poll we've seen recently comes from SurveyUSA, and they found things tied 38 to 38.
Mason-Dixon gives Democratic Secretary of State Alison Grimes a small 47-45 edge against Steve Knipper; SurveyUSA recently gave Grimes a much larger 46-38 lead. Grimes badly lost last year's Senate race against Mitch McConnell, but a good win here would help revive her career.
Grab Bag:
• Voting: In huge news out of California, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown just signed legislation that would automatically register to vote anyone who gets or renews a driver's license. That makes California the second such state to do so, following Oregon, which adopted similar rules earlier this year. The law could eventually add to the rolls some 6 to 7 million citizens who are eligible to vote but are not currently registered. Needless to say, this is a policy that should be adopted nationwide, though better still is North Dakota's approach of not requiring any voter registration at all.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.