The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is the best elections newsletter around.
Sign up now to get it in your inbox every weekday.
7:16 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IA-04: Democrats targeted loudmouth Rep. Steve King during the last two cycles, but it looks like he'll get a pass this time. Local AFSCME official and O'Brien County Democratic Party chair Kim Weaver brought in just $20,000 during the third quarter of the year, and that's not going to cut it in a 53-45 Romney seat. Democrats keep hoping that western Iowa will one day decide it's had enough of King's ultra-conservative rhetoric, but voters don't seem to be in any hurry to dump him yet.
7:29 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KS-01: After angering local agriculture interests, GOP Rep. Tim Huelskamp only won renomination 55-45 last year. Huelskamp doesn't seem to think he'll have much trouble in 2016 though, since he's barely raising any money. Huelskamp brought in just $64,000 during the last quarter, while physician Roger Marshall raised $101,000 and threw in another $55,000 of his own money.
However, Huelskamp still has a large $700,000 to $192,000 cash on hand lead. 2014 candidate Alan LaPolice is also running, and he could steal some vital anti-Huelskamp votes from Marshall. The good news for Marshall is that LaPolice only raised $15,000, and he's shown little interest in hauling in more.
It's unclear how much outside groups plan to get involved. Now or Never PAC spent $230,000 against Huelskamp last time, and the GOP establishment utterly despises the tea partier. However, FreedomWorks recently dropped $41,000 on TV ads for the congressman, and they'll likely spend much more if they think he needs the help. The GOP nominee will have no trouble holding this dark red western Kansas seat.
7:42 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-12: Democrats want to retake this swingy suburban St. Louis seat, but labor attorney C.J. Baricevic has not exactly been setting the world on fire with his fundraising. Baricevic brought in just $93,000 over the last three months, and he trails Republican freshman Mike Bost $650,000 to $103,000 in cash on hand. However, it's unclear who else Team Blue can find here. Over the summer, St. Clair County Sheriff Rick Watson turned down a bid after meeting with the DCCC, and no one else has made any noises about running here in months.
7:51 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NJ-05: Longtime Republican Rep. Scott Garrett has always been very conservative, but he still made headlines over the summer when Politico reported that he refused to donate to the NRCC over their support for gay candidates. Major Wall Street donors canceled a planned fundraiser for him, and business interests have been helping Democrat Josh Gottheimer instead. The defections seem to be having an effect: Gottheimer outraised Garrett $400,000 to $175,000 over the last three months. Garrett still has a huge $2,302,000 warchest, but Gottheimer's $934,000 is nothing to sneeze at.
Romney won this North Jersey seat 51-48 but Democratic Sen. Cory Booker narrowly carried it 50 to 49 last year, so a pickup is possible. Garrett has been a thorn in the side of his party's leadership for a long time, and they may be reluctant to splurge much money in the expensive New York media market to protect him.
8:14 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-18: Both parties have competitive primaries in this open 52-48 Romney seat. On the Democratic side, lawyer Jonathan Chane raised $201,000 during his first quarter in the race, and he loaned himself an additional $100,000. Chane leads Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay $275,000 to $236,000 in cash on hand, while fellow Commissioner Priscilla Taylor has $101,000 in the bank. Over the summer, Politico reported that rich guy Randy Perkins was eyeing a bid here, but Perkins has been quiet since then.
Things are quite chaotic on the GOP side. Pundit Noelle Nikpour, who only recently moved to South Florida from Arkansas, raised the most money, but her $150,000 wasn't incredible, and she only has $134,000 on hand. Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron, the wife of powerful state Sen. Joe Negron, only brought in $105,000, but she has the largest warchest with $256,000 in the bank. 2014 nominee Carl Domino raised nothing but has self-financed his way to a $245,000 warchest; Domino badly lost during last year's GOP wave, and few influential Republicans want him back.
Disabled veteran Brian Mast is popular with the national conservative media, but so far that's not translating into much money. Mast brought in $120,000, and he has $137,000 on hand. Attorney Rick Kozell took in only $75,000, but he has a larger $148,000 warchest. Right now, none of these five Republicans are impressing, though Negron's money and connections could give her the edge.
8:25 AM PT (Jeff Singer): DE-AL: On Monday, former state Secretary of Labor Lisa Blunt Rochester announced that she would run for this open seat. Rochester, who most recently served as the CEO of the Metropolitan Wilmington Urban League, joins state Sen. Bryan Townsend and state Rep. Bryon Short in the Democratic primary.
Sean Barney, a former advisor to term-limited Gov. Jack Markell, has also confirmed that he's looking at a bid. Barney's connections to the popular governor could help him, but he lost last year's state treasurer race 54-44. While there's little doubt that the Democrats will easily hold this seat next year, it's never good to enter a high-profile contest so soon after a disappointing defeat. Former state Rep. Dennis Williams has also expressed interest in running, and there are plenty of other First State Democrats who could jump in. However, Rochester's decision to run means that her sister, Marla Blunt-Carter, will not be seeking this seat.
12:14 PM PT (David Nir): KY-Gov: According to Politico, the RGA is throwing down at least another $365,000 on the airwaves on behalf of Republican Matt Bevin with just a week to go before Election Day. Presumably this comes on top of the $1.6 million in airtime the RGA reportedly purchased last week, but this still puts the GOP well behind. Campaign finance reports covering the period of Oct. 3-19 show that Democrat Jack Conway outspent Bevin by a 4-to-1 margin, $2.4 million to just $600,000. Most of that went to TV ads for both candidates, so even with the RGA helping his opponent, Conway is almost certainly more visible in paid media.
12:36 PM PT (David Nir): CA-24: Pretty much the entire Democratic establishment in California has rallied around Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Lois Capps (including Capps herself), but Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider just received a prominent endorsement from Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. It's not clear why Newsom's gravitated to Schneider: He's already running for governor in 2018, but if he's looking to earn some favors, he's definitely betting on the underdog here.
12:43 PM PT (David Nir): NY-24: Following his junior colleague, Sen. Chuck Schumer just endorsed Democrat Colleen Deacon's bid for Congress in New York's 24th District. Deacon is a former staffer for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who immediately gave her support to Deacon after she entered the race. Two other Democrats, Syracuse University professor Eric Kingson and attorney Steve Williams, are also vying for the right to take on freshman GOP Rep. John Katko.
1:46 PM PT (David Nir): OH-Sen: One Nation, Karl Rove's newest front group, will reportedly spend $1.1 million on TV, radio, and online ads to boost GOP Sen. Rob Portman. No copies of the spots are available yet, but they will reportedly focus on jobs (exciting!). Prior One Nation ads have been really dull and unmemorable.
2:50 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-01: Despite expressing interest in this open seat, Democratic state Rep. Gerald Watkins has decided not to run. State Sen. Dorsey Ridley could still jump in, and he'd probably give Team Blue its only chance to flip this dark red western Kentucky district.
3:40 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: Neither Republican David Vitter nor Democrat John Bel Edwards has much time to prepare for the Nov. 21 general election, and both parties are wasting no time opening up a can of whoop ass on the other side. The nasty jungle primary left Vitter with terrible favorable ratings, especially once his opponents started asking questions about his 2007 prostitution scandal. However, Louisiana is a very conservative state and President Obama has never been popular, and Vitter and his allies are aggressively working to link Edwards to Obama. This election may come down to one question: Can Louisianans hate David Vitter more than they hate Barack Obama?
Edwards' first general election spot warns viewers that Vitter "will spend millions of dollars lying about my record, my values, and my service to our country and our state." Edwards then reminds voters that he went to West Point and lives by its honor code, declaring he won't lie, cheat, or steal. Edwards then memorably declares that "David Vitter wouldn't last a day at West Point."
Edwards is also getting some backup from Gumbo PAC. The group is airing a new TV spot that features clips of Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne, the two Republicans who Vitter defeated in the jungle primary, attacking Vitter. The spot opens strong with Angelle warning voters that there is a stench that will come over the state if Vitter wins. Edwards will need to win over a significant portion of Angelle and Dardenne supporters to prevail next month, and neither Republican has endorsed Vitter. Gumbo PAC received $300,000 from the DGA to air this spot.
Vitter also took some friendly fire on Tuesday. Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand is a Republican, but he and Vitter have been enemies for decades. Their relationship got even worse on Friday, when a private investigator named Robert Frenzel was arrested after he allegedly tried to record a gathering hosted by Normand, then fled the scene when Normand confronted him. Vitter's camp says that Frenzel was their to record a "John Bel Edwards' business associate and major donor" and not the sheriff, but that's doing nothing to appease Normand.
Normand hasn't endorsed anyone, but he says that he told Vitter to his face that the senator "would be the worst governor in the history of the state of Louisiana." Normand is very powerful in Vitter's base in voter-rich Jefferson Parish, and if he does him some damage there, that would be very bad for Vitter.
The Republicans are doing everything they can to drag Edwards into the mud along with Vitter. Until a few weeks ago, Vitter and his two GOP foes spent all their time attacking one another, while Edwards remained above the fray. However, the RGA launched a $1 million ad buy against Edwards in the final two weeks of the jungle primary, and they're picking up where they left off.
The narrator accused Edwards of wanting to increase taxes "just like Obama," and sums up his record as "more money for himself and illegal aliens, less money for students." The pro-Vitter group Fund for Louisiana's Future also hits Edwards along the same lines, arguing that he voted to raise taxes and has used taxpayer money to help himself.
Vitter is out with his first anti-Edwards ad, and he does not hold back at all. The narrator says that like Obama, Edwards wants to release criminals. The spot raises the specter of drug dealers going into neighborhoods, and the whole thing is more than a little Willie Horton-esque.
Three general election polls were released in the run-up to the jungle primary, and they gave Edwards anywhere between a 3 to 16 lead against Vitter. However, all those polls were conducted before the GOP attacks began. If Edwards is going to pull this off, he needs to prove that he do what so many other red state Democrats couldn't do and survive the GOP's attempts to nationalize the contest. The next batch of polls will give us a better idea of whether Edwards has what it takes, or if voters will decide that he's an Obama proxy. But one way or another, the next few weeks will make this a campaign to remember.