Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jack Conway
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• KY-Gov: If Western Kentucky University's new poll of the Bluegrass State's gubernatorial showdown next week is right, then the RGA's late decision to try to rescue Matt Bevin is not going very well at all. WKU finds Democrat Jack Conway with a 45-40 lead, while left-leaning independent Drew Curtis takes 7 percent of the vote. That leaves just 8 percent undecided, Bevin would have to capture three quarters of those who haven't made up their mind just to catch up to Conway. Given that Curtis supporters are more likely to migrate in the Democratic direction, that's a tall order indeed.
But as we well know, undecideds in a red state almost invariably lean Republican, as just about every pollster who tested the waters in Kentucky's Senate race learned last year to the industry's collective chagrin. That group included WKU, whose first, last, and only poll of the race gave Mitch McConnell just a 4-point lead (he went on to win by 16). Of course, everyone blew that race, so the real question is whether WKU, which otherwise doesn't have much if any track record, took the right lessons from it.
And there are plenty of differences between the two contests: Democrats have fared far better in state rather than federal races in Kentucky; this election involves an open seat rather than an incumbent seeking another term; the mood doesn't seem to be nearly as hostile toward Democrats this year as it was last year; and Bevin is an atrociously flawed candidates who own party gave up on him barely a month before Election Day. Yet in spite of everything, it'll be a big deal if Democrats can successfully defend this governorship. We'll see if they can in just a week.
P.S. Bevin has a new ad that uses the word "Obama" eight times in trying slur Conway as a "rubber stamp" for the president.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: On Friday, Larimer County Sheriff Justin Smith announced that he would not challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. The GOP has struggled to find a viable contender here, though Smith's adamant opposition to gun control could have been a liability for Team Red.
However, rich guy Robert Blaha is going full speed ahead with a bid. While Blaha hasn't officially announced, he told the National Journal that he decided to run after Bennet voted for the Iran deal. Blaha has already begun staffing up, partially to assure national Republicans that his campaign against Bennet will be much more serious than his failed 2012 primary challenge to Rep. Doug Lamborn. However, one of the guys Blaha is bringing in is ad maker Fred Davis, who has created some of the weirdest and worst political commercials of the decade.
Blaha joins conservative state Sen. Tim Neville and a few minor candidates in the primary. National Republicans don't seem impressed by any of their choices, but they don't have any obvious alternatives right now. Rep. Scott Tipton is probably the most formidable Republican who hasn't said no, but Tipton hasn't done anything to indicate that he's seriously looking at running.
• NV-Sen: 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle is talking about making another run for the Senate and unsurprisingly, Republicans are not happy about it. Angle's campaign against Harry Reid was an utter disaster: She made several avoidable mistakes, most notably telling several Hispanic students that "some of you look a little more Asian to me." But Angle seems to think she has a shot in 2016, a view shared by only a few Angle partisans.
According to Politico, national Republicans aren't worried that Angle will actually beat presumptive nominee Joe Heck in the primary. Instead, they're afraid that she'll force him to spend money and move to the right at a time when he should be focusing on Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. The good new for Team Red is that, after Angle's catastrophic 2010 campaign, no big-named Republican groups have any interest in helping her again.
The Club for Growth usually loves to back anti-establishment conservatives, but their spokesman says that they don't think another Angle candidacy will end any better than her last one. Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks are also planning to sit this one out. Even Chuck Muth, a conservative activist who tried to recall several GOP legislators over their support for a tax hike, tells Politico that "Angle doesn't have a prayer," while the GOP has "an excellent chance with Joe Heck to pick up that seat."
Whether Angle picks up on these not-so-subtle hints remains to be seen. We shouldn't bet on it though: Right after Angle lost her 2010 bid, she proceeded to talk about running for president, so she's not exactly someone who knows when to take a bow and get off the stage.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: On Monday, Democrat John Bel Edwards got a useful endorsement from the Louisiana Sheriffs Association. In Louisiana, sheriffs tend to be very influential figures: When he turned down a gubernatorial bid, the late Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee famously asked, "Why would I want to be governor when I can be king?" The group backed Republican David Vitter in 2010 when he sought re-election to the Senate.
The Gambit's Clancy DuBos also wrote before the endorsement was announced that the Association nod would "send a clear signal to local officials across the state that it's safe to back the Democrat against Vitter." However, the Association's power has its limits: The group backed Democrat Mary Landrieu last year during her unsuccessful re-election bid.
House:
• CA-24: When Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian entered the race for this open Obama 54-43 seat, the GOP held out hope that he could put this coastal district into play. However, Achadjian has had his second disappointing fundraising quarter, and he's only hauled in $133,000. By contrast, businessman and 2014 GOP candidate Justin Fareed brought in a decent $210,000, and he leads Achadjian $374,000 to $208,000 in cash on hand.
Another 2014 Republican contender, Santa Barbara Councilor Dale Francisco, will not be joining them in the top-two primary after all. While Francisco filed with the FEC a little while ago, he says it was supposed to just be an amendment to his 2014 campaign and he is "not running for Congress this year."
Two Democrats are in the hunt here. Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal has been getting plenty of support from national Democrats, including retiring Rep. Lois Capps, and he leads Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider $803,000 to $232,000 in cash on hand.
• CA-25: After one great fundraising quarter, freshman Republican Rep. Steve Knight is going back to his old ways. Knight raised just $77,000, and he has $360,000 on hand, which is not impressive for a seat in the expensive Los Angeles media market.
Unfortunately for Team Blue, both of its candidates are doing even worse. Maria Gutzeit and Lou Vince raised $13,000 each, and they both have only $9,000 in the bank. Romney won this Antelope Valley seat only 50-48 but the Democratic bench is still very weak here, and Democrats may forfeit their chance to flip this seat if they can't find a better candidate.
• CT-04: Democratic Rep. Jim Himes survived last year's GOP wave 54-46, and there was never any question that he'd be even safer in a better political climate. The Republicans found an actual state representative to challenge him this time, but John Shaban raised only $23,000 during the quarter, an unacceptable sum for a 55-44 Obama seat located in the ultra-expensive New York media market. The GOP has better opportunities elsewhere, and we've probably heard the last from this seat for the cycle.
• FL-05, 10: While Rep. Corrine Brown's 5th District is still safely blue, it has gone from being a seat stretching from Jacksonville to Orlando to one that goes from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. Brown is making a longshot attempt to save her old seat in federal court, but she's doing little to prepare for a bid in a redrawn district. Brown raised just $60,000 in the third quarter of 2015, and she has only $26,000 on hand.
There's a lot of uncertainty about what will happen next. Assuming Brown runs in the 5th District, where her Jacksonville base is, she could face a primary with fellow Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham. Graham has been raising money like there's no tomorrow, and she has $1,370,000 in the bank. But all Graham has said about her 2016 plans is that she's waiting for a final congressional map, and she would face several challenges in the 5th. For one thing, Graham is white, while the primary electorate is predominantly black (as is Brown). Graham also has a moderate record in the House, something Brown would exploit. It also doesn't help that the Jacksonville area makes up a much greater proportion of the 5th than the Tallahassee area.
A few months ago, ex-state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson began making noises about running here. Like Graham, Lawson hails from the Tallahassee area. However, Lawson is an African American, so he'd mitigate one potential Brown advantage. Lawson has run for the House twice in the 2nd District and he's never been a spectacular fundraiser: Lawson raised a total of $191,000 before his 2012 primary. It's also possible that someone else could challenge Brown.
Brown also hasn't ruled out running for the Orlando-area 10th District instead. That seat doesn't include much of Brown's old constituency, but she could slip through in a crowded primary. Currently, 2012 nominee Val Demings and state Sen. Geraldine Thompson are running; Demings has $151,000 on hand, while Thompson only filed with the FEC after the quarter ended. But Brown won't have an easy time winning anywhere if she doesn't focus on raising money, and she doesn't seem at all interested in doing that right now.
• FL-21, 22: While redistricting has thrown Democratic Reps. Ted Deutch and Lois Frankel into the same safely blue South Florida seat, the two have pledged not to run against each other. Still, both of them seem to be preparing for, or hoping to deter, a tough primary challenge. Frankel brought in a respectable $354,000 over the last three months, while Deutch raised a monster $636,000.
Assuming Deutch and Frankel don't go back on their word, the other member can run for the new safely blue seat that doesn't have an incumbent. Both the new 21st and 22nd (pending final court approval) contain parts of Deutch and Frankel's old seats, and no one serious has publicly expressed interest in challenging either of them. Still, it's smart for both members to bulk up their warchests just in case an aspiring politician decides to take advantage of the chaos.
• SD-AL: Democrats landed state Rep. Paula Hawks for a longshot bid against Republican Kristi Noem, but we can probably take our eyes off this seat. Hawks raised only $62,000 for the quarter, and she trails Noem $1,345,000 to $65,000 in cash on hand. Noem hasn't done much to anger her conservative constituents, and it's very tough to see this district going blue again anytime soon.
• TN-03: Rep. Chuck Fleischmann has always struggled in GOP primaries, but an easy win could discourage future opponents. Fleischmann brought in a good $278,000 for the quarter, and he has $792,000 on hand. State Sen. Bo Watson hasn't ruled out challenging him, but he's going to have a tough time catching up to Fleischmann if he doesn't get in soon.
Mayoral:
• Portland, OR Mayor: On Monday, Portland Mayor Charlie Hales announced that he would not seek re-election next year after all. Hales is the third Portland mayor in a row to decline to run for a second term. Early polls showed state Treasurer Ted Wheeler, a fellow Democrat, doing well against Hales, though the mayor insists that polling had nothing to do with his decision.
Grab Bag:
• Time Machine: Travel back in time with Daily Kos Elections, as we imagine our writeups of key races throughout history as though we were right there—and without the benefit of hindsight! This time, Adam Bonin is driving the DeLorean, and he brings us to Pennsylvania in mid-1991. GOP Sen. John Heinz has recently died in a tragic plane crash and Democratic Gov. Bob Casey gets to pick his successor. However, all of the Keystone State's prominent Democrats are turning down a free trip to the Senate. What's going on here? Journey back with us to find out.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
