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Pennsylvania has not had a Democratic senator since Richard Schweiker unseated Joe Clark in 1968, and Gov. Bob Casey seems to be in no rush to change that. It has now been over a month since GOP Sen. John Heinz died in April 4's tragic plane accident, and the seat remains vacant until the governor makes his choice—his third choice, at least. Indeed, this mystery's been as badly handled as the present season of Twin Peaks. How did we get here?
First, there was a spate of major demurrals: House Majority Whip Rep. Bill Gray made clear he only wanted to run in the unusual odd-year November special election, and not take the interim appointment, in order to preserve his seniority in the House. Rep. Jack Murtha, too, decided he'd rather stay defense appropriations chair than become a junior senator. It's not hard to see why both House members didn't want to jump ship: If they took the appointment but lost in November, they'd lose both their Senate seat and their enviable positions in the House.
And there's a very good chance that the GOP will retake this seat no matter who Casey picks. Bush remains incredibly popular after the success of Operation Desert Storm: While there's still time for Bush's numbers to come back down to earth, it's unlikely that the president will be unpopular enough to be anything but an asset in a state he carried 51-48. The GOP also is likely to have a formidable contender in U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh, a former two-term governor.
The Republicans could also field Teresa Heinz, the widow of Sen. Heinz and vice chair of the Environmental Defense Fund; Heinz's moderate positions and voter sympathy would make it tough for her to lose. Heinz has ruled out accepting an appointment from Casey and then stepping aside for the general (it's unlikely he'd cross party lines and send her to the Senate anyway), but she hasn't closed the door on running for the remaining three years of Sen. Heinz's term. State Attorney General Ernie Preate or Erie-based Rep. Tom Ridge could also run if Thornburgh and Heinz sit this out, and they would definitely give Democrats a tough race. The trip down memory lane continues below.
Casey may find someone willing to step up, if only because this may be the best chance Keystone State Democrats have at flipping a Senate seat for a while. The state's other GOP senator, Arlen Specter, has proven to be very tough to unseat, and unlike whomever the GOP fields this November, he'll have incumbency on his side when he runs again in 1992.
Still, no one seems to want to take what looks like a booby prize from Casey in 1991. Art Rooney, son of the Steelers' president and grandson of its founder, is out, as are a number of western Pennsylvania judges. (Casey has said he'd like to preserve geographic balance; it wouldn't be surprising if he's also looking for a pro-lifer like himself.) Lt. Gov. Mark Singel is reportedly interested in challenging Specter, but Casey can't offer him the other seat now: If Singel left, he'd be replaced by Republican state Sen. Robert Jubelirer. And Casey has ruled out appointing himself.
With the list of viable Democrats getting smaller, Casey went far outside the box. Earlier this week, the governor flew to Detroit to offer the job to Chrysler chair Lee Iacocca, who hasn't lived in the Keystone State in decades. Iacocca unsurprisingly declined. But upon hearing this news, Casey's backup choice, former Philadelphia Mayor Bill Green, also said no. At this point, Casey's running through options faster than Murphy Brown goes through secretaries.
So who's left? Young-ish Reps. Peter Kostmayer (PA-08) and Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) are probably the best bets in terms of their ability to keep this seat in Democratic hands in future elections. However, like the more senior House members, they'd need to give up their seats and burgeoning seniority for a very tough contest this fall. Catherine Baker Knoll, the state treasurer from out west, would also be intriguing. Then there's the lesser-knowns, like former civil rights leader Harris Wofford, who is now Casey's labor secretary; state party chair Larry Yatch; G. Davis Greene Jr., Casey's former finance aide; or former state House Speaker K. Leroy Irvis, who could end up being caretakers if Casey wants to cede the choice of the November nominee to the state party.
We have a bit of time left, and Casey could always pull a surprising name out of his hat. But when so many Democrats across the state have rejected what would normally be a highly desired trip to the Senate, it's hard to feel good about our chances here in November, especially if Thornburgh or Heinz run.
We're going to keep our race rating at Tossup until Casey finally makes his choice, but this will probably move to Lean Republican soon after.
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