538 is tracking a fascinating statistic for presidential campaigns: the endorsements the candidates collect from their peers in Congress and governorships. (I’m not including any charts due to uncertainties with DKos’s acceptance of “fair use”; please go visit. They have nice interactive tools, and a full list of endorsers)
With the normal thoroughness one expects from 538, they have also gathered historical data all the way back into the 80’s for the campaigns. They weight governors more than senators, and senators more than congressmen, based on relative numbers — I’m not sure if it really relates to actual effectiveness. These get added into a total score.
What emerges is a story showing either the effects of party support, or the predictive value of party support, in determining who the candidates for the generals are. Note that the statistics for incumbent presidents are not included, as the party is essentially unified behind that candidate.
Currently, Hillary Clinton is running better than any Democratic politician running for president since the 80’s, and is only edged out by GW Bush’s successful 2000 primary and generals win. She has accumulated almost 200 political endorsements, for over 400 “points” as 538 scores it. As has been noted many times, no Democratic candidate has been so prepared to run, and she has worked to line up allies for years.
On the Republican side, this is another cycle where everyone is waiting. Even JEB! has only accumulated close to 30 endorsements, and most have ten or fewer. This surprises me, as many of this year’s crop were expected to run, and could have been trying to make more allies for years beforehand. It would be interesting to determine if this shows a lack of organization on their part, or a lack of interest on their peers’ part. The strong “we hate ourselves” element of Tea Party politics in the Republican body-politic surely factors in as well.
Interestingly, the outsiders have practically no endorsements. Of those with no political experience, only Carly Fiorina has picked up the endorsements of 3 representatives. Trump obviously has no interest in working with anyone else and so has no endorsements, and it isn’t clear if Ben Carson is aware of the existence of Congress.
The Democratic longshots Sanders and O’Malley have 2 and1, respectively. It is surprising to me that they have not picked up the endorsements of even the other politicians from their respective states.
Note that it is more typical for the party to wait until Iowa nears, or just after it, before beginning to endorse in large numbers. When they have endorsed early, usually that candidate has won the primary. 2008’s Democratic primary was the exception, as a low early lead for Hillary at Iowa time ended up essentially a tie by the end of the primary.