Donald Trump says his record in real estate and business is proof that he is a smart negotiator and qualifies him for the Presidency. Never mind that he grew up in an elite family, was given a million dollar loan from his father to get started, and stayed close to home where he knew the lay of the land and the local movers and shakers. Likewise, catching one’s stride in the business world in the Reagan era doesn’t confer brilliance in business negotiation; it indicates dumb luck. Mr. Trump frequently tells us that he is a billionaire. He has skills but those skills do not mean he would be a smart negotiator as President. Conversely, his multiple bankruptcies don’t make him a bad negotiator. They call into question his judgment.
The president must negotiate not only with leaders of other countries, but Senators, Representatives, and the American people. He (or perhaps soon to be She) needs different negotiating tools and styles for each group. Mr. Trump has one: loud, brash, and progressively dishonest. The motor cortex for his mouth acts independently of most of the rest of his brain. The one area of his brain that engages with his mouth is his brainstem: the primitive region that is the engine of primal impulses such as fear, its younger sibling anger, appetite, and lust for control.
Watch the behavior of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Angela Merkel, or Francoise Hollande, to mention a few world leaders. Listen to their speaking style. These people are measured in their vocabulary. They are serious. They have spent their adult lives in politics and government and whether or not you agree with their policies you must acknowledge their sophistication and recognize their reserve.
These leaders are not in it for the money. They are in office with agendas founded on various combinations of security for their citizens, power, sometimes acquisition of resources or territory, or pure ideology. Mr. Trump does not speak the language of their worlds. Trump exaggerates his ideas and overvalues his ability. World leaders know this is thinly veiled dishonesty.
Foreign leaders and their lieutenants take the measure of our presidential candidates early. This is where Trump’s lack of smarts as a negotiator is obvious. Analogous to poker players, politicians have their “tells”. Trump has telegraphed his tell loud and clear.
The first rule of negotiation is to keep your cards close to your chest. Trump flashes them every chance he gets because that is what his supporters desire. Trump and his most ardent fans are pathologically co-dependent. They amplify each others weaknesses of irrational anger, fear, and moral incontinence. This dynamic is obvious to the leaders of other countries. President Jinping knows what pushes Trump’s buttons because he knows Trump’s glaring personality flaws of unbridled narcissism and intellectual vulgarity. This points to Mr. Trump’s most serious weakness as a negotiator: foreign leaders do not respect his intellect. They see him as nothing more than a bombast that is easily goaded into showing his cards.
The most powerful tool a negotiator has is mystery. Because there is no mystery about Donald Trump he will fail in his negotiations with American citizens, Congress, and the world.