The New York Times recently featured an op-ed by former Energy Department Undersecretary for Science and former Chief Scientist for BP, Steven Koonin. In it, Koonin makes some well-known points about climate science, mentioning that emissions remain in the atmosphere for a while after they're released and that emissions reductions get less effective as CO2 concentrations increase in the atmosphere. It's worth noting, though, that the experts at And Then There’s Physics take issue with the more technical aspects of Koonin's science, as well as the thrust of his argument.
After making these basic points, Koonin then makes a swift jump to some unsupported conclusions. He argues that—because of those two facts—mitigation will be difficult and that adaptation is critical.
On a basic level, this idea should come as a surprise to no one. No one thinks this challenge will be met easily. But to focus on adaptation over mitigation means we would constantly be adapting to continually worsening conditions. For example, as sea levels continue to rise, we would have to keep building sea walls higher and higher.
This is summarized perfectly by Eli Rabett, who ends his response post with his four laws of climate change:
1. Adaptation responds to current losses
2. Mitigation responds to future losses
3. Adaptation plus future costs is more expensive than mitigation,
4. Adaptation without mitigation drives procrastination penalties to infinity
If we follow Koonin's advice, we may save money on mitigation in the short-term, but eventually we'll be spending big just to keep our heads above water.
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