Leading Off:
● LA-Sen: On Monday, Republican Rep. Charles Boustany kicked off his bid for this open seat. Boustany joins John Fleming, a fellow GOP congressman, in the race. Tea partier Rob Maness and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta have both formed exploratory committees, while a number of other Republicans are mulling bids here.
Boustany is close to the House GOP leadership, and one prominent national Republican group sounds ready to help him. LaPolitics says that Karl Rove's deep-pocked American Crossroads group is planning to spend for him, and they're already enlisting donors to help him. By contrast, Fleming is a member of the tea party-flavored House Freedom Caucus.
We have a long time to go before this race takes shape on either side, but two major potential GOP candidates say they'll decide soon. Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who took a respectable third place in October's gubernatorial jungle primary, says he'll announce what he's doing after the holidays. Angelle and Boustany both hail from Acadiana, and Boustany would likely benefit if he stayed out; Angelle may instead run for Boustany's open House seat.
State Treasurer John Kennedy, who was Team Red's nominee in 2008, also says he'll announce his plans after the holidays. Skrmetta hasn't publicly offered a timeline, but LaPolitics reports that he's telling donors he'll make his choice by early March.
A few other Republicans, most notably outgoing Jefferson Parish President John Young, are talking about running, and one additional candidate has entered the fray.
In an email to supporters, ex-Rep. Joseph Cao announced that he's in. Cao famously won a heavily Democratic New Orleans seat by unseating indicted Democratic incumbent Bill Jefferson in a low-turnout December 2008 race, but he got bounced by Cedric Richmond 65-33 two years later. Cao seems to have forgotten that last part, since he argues that "votes in New Orleans, the district that I represented, will gravitate towards me." (Hat-tip to Jonathan Tilove of the Austin American-Statesman.)
While Louisiana is a very conservative state, some Democrats are wondering if the future might be Cao for them too after Gov.-elect John Bel Edwards' win last month. State Sen. Eric LaFleur says he's looking at this contrast, and he'd be a good get if Team Blue can land him. LaFleur represents a seat that backed Romney 66-32, and he was mentioned as a rising star even before he aired this classic 2011 ad (which you'll want to watch, especially if the headline of today's Digest has you very confused). However, despite sounding ready to run for Senate in 2010, LaFleur ended up passing on a bid.
We can cross one Democrat off the list though. While ex-U.S. Attorney Don Cazayoux was mentioned as a possible candidate, the former congressman told the National Journal that he "won't be running for the Senate." Ah well, we also have a vintage ad to remember him by.
Gubernatorial:
● VA-Gov: Because Virginia Republicans just held their annual retreat (which they literally call their "advance" because they think the word "retreat" has negative connotations—not joking), we've recently seen a flurry of potential gubernatorial candidates circulating their names. The latest to float his interest is Prince William County Executive Corey Stewart, who ran for lieutenant governor in 2013 but was rejected by convention delegates—in favor of, yes, E.W. Jackson. To get on conservatives' good side this time, Stewart also just announced that he's chairing Donald Trump's campaign in Virginia. It's a natural fit, though, since Stewart is a rabid anti-immigrant ideologue who pushed a policy to "crack down" on immigrants in Prince William County and then falsely claimed it had reduced crime.
Already running for the GOP is former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, while Rep. Rob Wittman has said he'll join, too, and former state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli could make the race as well.
● PR-Gov: On Monday, Puerto Rican Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla announced that he would not seek a second term next year. Garcia Padilla's tenure has been overshadowed by the island's $72 billion debt crisis, and his administration is also facing a federal investigation over alleged corruption. A recent poll from The Research Office gave Garcia Padilla a horrific 12-69 approval rating: Say what you will about politics in the 50 states, but governors are rarely that hated! Garcia Padilla will be the fourth governor in a row to leave office after just one term.
Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi, who represents the island in the U.S. House as its non-voting member, quickly kicked off his campaign. While Pierluisi caucuses with the Democrats in Washington and Garcia Padilla is also identified as a Democrat, the two men come from very different parties in Puerto Rico. Pierluisi hails from the New Progressive Party, which supports statehood and generally is closer to the GOP. Garcia Padilla is a member of the Popular Democratic Party, which wants to preserve Puerto Rico's commonwealth status and aligns with the Democrats.
On the PNP side, former Secretary of State David Bernier is reportedly in, while Senate President Eduardo Bhatia is also a potential contender. And back in September, New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who has supported Puerto Rican independence from the United States, didn't rule out a run for governor herself.
House:
● CA-36: Republicans have been looking for a credible candidate against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz in this Obama 51-48 seat, but there have been no takers yet. However, state Sen. Jeff Stone says that he's considering a bid for this Inland Empire district.
Stone represents about two-thirds of this seat in the legislature, but a bid against Ruiz would not be easy. Ruiz is a skilled fundraiser who pulled off a decisive 54-46 win during last year's GOP wave. Stone has also attracted his share of controversy. Back in 2011, Stone proposed that most of Southern California—though not heavily Democratic Los Angeles County—split off and form its own state. Given that you're reading about the race for California's 36th District instead of South California's 3rd District, you can guess how that plan went.
More recently in late 2013, Stone flashed an honorary police badge during an encounter with an angry motorist, which the other driver said made him think that Stone was a police officer. While Stone's intra-party foe tried to use the incident against him during their state Senate race, Stone still won 53-47.
● FL-05: On Tuesday, ex-state Sen. Al Lawson announced that he would run for this seat. Lawson hails from the Tallahassee area and ran for the old 2nd District twice, serving as the Democratic nominee in 2012. Lawson's decision complicates things for Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum in this safely blue seat. Gillum, who says he'll to decide on his plans after the holidays, would have loved to be the only Tallahassee-based candidate in this seat, but that's not going to happen now.
For a while, it looked like Democratic incumbent Corrine Brown, who hails from the Jacksonville portion of this seat, would run here. However, one of Brown's recent consultants recently said on the record that the congresswoman is planning to run in the Orlando-area 10th, where she has some name recognition. Brown herself hasn't said anything, and it's always possible she'll change her mind if she knows the Tallahassee area's primary vote will be split.
However, if Brown does go to Orlando, it's very likely that other Jacksonville Democrats will eye the 5th. Politico's Matt Dixon says that ex-state Sen. Tony Hill is mulling a bid if Brown isn't there, though Hill hasn't said anything publicly. There's also the possibility that Rep. Gwen Graham, whose 2nd District is about to become unwinnable for a Democrat, could win here. Graham, who also hails from the Tallahassee area, is white while Gillum, Lawson, Brown, and Hill are black. The primary electorate is predominantly black, but if Graham gets in, she could benefit from being the only white contender. For her part, Graham has only said that she's waiting for the map to be settled. It's very likely that recent map approved by the state Supreme Court will be used next year, but federal courts have yet to weigh in.
● FL-09: Central Florida is one of the most heavily Puerto Rican parts of the country, and thanks to the island's economic woes, the Orlando area has seen strong growth recently in its Puerto Rican population. That's why state Sen. Darren Soto, who is running for Alan Grayson's House seat, is touting a new endorsement from Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi, who serves as Puerto Rico's non-voting representative in Congress. (It's also possible this move is designed to help Pierluisi improve his own visibility, as he just announced a campaign for governor; see our PR-Gov item above.)
Soto is one of two Democrats of Puerto Rican descent running in the primary; former state Rep. Ricardo Rangel is also in the race, but he hasn't made much of an impact. Several other Democrats are vying for the nomination as well, including Grayson's former district director, Susannah Randolph, and Grayson's girlfriend, Dena Minning.
● IL-08: Businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi just earned the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi, and yeah, that's a pretty good endorsement to have. That's especially so when you combine it with a big fundraising lead on your opponents in the Democratic primary, like the one Raja has over state Sen. Mike Noland and Villa Park Mayor Deb Bullwinkel. In response, Nolan grumped, "Those who don't call me or who don't get to know me, I don't take those endorsements seriously." But his opinion doesn't matter here: What matters is that of donors (and even voters) who find Pelosi's support a persuasive signal that they should back Krishnamoorthi, too. The three Democrats are all competing to succeed Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who is running for Senate; the seat should remain in Democratic hands without much fuss.
● LA-02: East Baton Rouge Mayor-President Kip Holden was just on the ballot as Team Blue's unsuccessful lieutenant governor nominee, and he may seek another office sooner rather than later. The Gambit reports that unnamed people are encouraging Holden to challenge Democratic incumbent Cedric Richmond next year. Holden didn't say no when asked, only telling the magazine that he's focusing on his last year as mayor.
It won't be easy for Holden to take down the New Orleans-based Richmond. Orleans and neighboring Jefferson Parish make up 66 percent of this district's population, while East Baton Rouge is only 14 percent. Richmond's $339,000 warchest isn't overwhelming, but Holden proved to be a lousy fundraiser during his lieutenant governor bid. Richmond also hasn't done anything to alienate voters in this safely Democratic district, and it's hard to see them firing him.
● MN-08: Republican Stewart Mills ran a ton of ads like this one last cycle, touting his supposed insights into "small businesses" because of his work running his family's sporting goods company … which just so happens to be a large chain of three dozen stores and 6,000 employees. But it looks like Mills will soon have a harder time portraying himself as the humble proprietor of an almost-mom-n-pop shop, since he's put Mills Fleet Farm up for sale—and the asking price is now over $1 billion.
What's more, the likely buyer is the private equity firm KKR (formerly known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts), which just invites all sorts of Mitt Romney invocations—and raises the specter of layoffs or even dissolution the company is bought out by a competitor. Across the Upper Midwest, Fleet Farm is viewed rather affectionately, with its eclectic collection of goods ranging from housewares to hunting gear; allowing billionaires to shred its reputation won't do Mills any favors as he looks to unseat Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, who narrowly prevailed during last year's GOP wave.
● TX-08: Filing closed Monday in Texas for the state's March 1 primary, and the state has a complete list of candidates available here. In primaries where no one takes a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a May 24 runoff.
Easily the biggest filing day surprise was in TX-29, but there are a few other primaries worth noting. In the safely red 8th District, newly-minted Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady faces a challenge from ex-state Rep. Steve Toth. Toth rallied tea partiers to unseat an incumbent in 2012, but badly lost a 2014 state Senate race to another Republican. The powerful Brady will have access to plenty of money, but this one's worth keeping an eye on just in case.
● TX-15: Six Democrats are running to succeed retiring Rep. Ruben Hinojosa in this Rio Grande Valley seat. Hidalgo County Democratic Chair Dolly Elizondo may benefit from being the only woman on the ballot: EMILY's List has signaled that they want to get involved here and if they spend big on Elizondo, that could make all the difference.
Also on the ballot are former Hidalgo County Commissioner Joel Quintanilla; Edinburg school board member Sonny Palacios; attorney Vicente Gonzalez; a perennial candidate; and a contender who lives far outside the district who shares his first and last name with the retiring congressman. Palacios says he can do some-self funding and he hails from a powerful local family, though it's unclear if all his influential relatives will side with him. Obama won this seat 57-42 and while Democratic turnout gets dicey in midterm cycles, it should stay blue in a presidential year.
● TX-19: Seven Republicans are seeking to succeed retiring Rep. Randy Neugebauer in this deep red Panhandle seat. Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson starts out as the best-known contender, and his opponents don't have too much time to get their name out. But not all of Robertson's name recognition is good: He has a habit of making his disputes in city politics public, which doesn't rub everyone the right way.
Former George W. Bush aide and Texas Tech Vice Chancellor Jodey Arrington also looks like he has the connections he'll need to do well here. Arrington ran for the state Senate last year and lost to another Republican 54-30, so he may have some work to do with local Republicans though.
Three other candidates are a bit less defined. Greg Garrett runs a local bank and owns a realty business, so he may or may not have money and connections. Michael Bob Starr served as a colonel at the local Dyess Air Force Base until he resigned to run here. DeRenda Warren, the administrator and director of nursing at homecare chain BrightStar, may also have access to money. We also have two minor contenders.
● TX-23: While there are a few races to watch in the primary, this is the only seat that's likely to be at all competitive in November. Republican Will Hurd narrowly unseated Democrat Pete Gallego last year, and Gallego is back for a rematch. Romney won this seat, which stretches from El Paso to San Antonio, 51-48.
● TX-27, 32, 33: Earlier in this cycle, it looked like Republican Reps. Blake Farenthold and Pete Sessions were in for competitive primaries. A former Farenthold staffer was suing him for sexual harassment, while wealthy tea partying state Sen. Don Huffines and his brother, Phillip Huffines, left the door open to challenging Sessions. However, Farenthold won't be facing any opposition to renomination, while Session's foe looks to be of the Some Dude variety. Former state Rep. Solomon Ortiz Jr. made some noises about running for Team Blue against Farenthold in March, but like Sessions, Farenthold will face only minor Democratic opposition.
Over in the safely blue 33rd District, Rep. Marc Veasey has also dodged a competitive primary. 2012 foe Domingo Garcia made noises about running here a while back, but he isn't going for it. Instead, Veasey will face a token challenge from Carlos Quintanilla, who barely registered when he ran in 2012.
● TX-29: In a big last-minute surprise, ex-Harris County Sheriff and 2015 Houston mayoral candidate Adrian Garcia announced that he would challenge longtime Rep. Gene Green in the Democratic primary.
Green is a relatively moderate member, but this contest looks like it will be about race rather than ideology. Green is an Anglo member representing a Houston seat where Hispanics outnumber whites 77-10. Garcia opened his campaign saying that he's running to "strengthen the party and help cultivate a Hispanic electorate that can help move the country forward," and argued he was "not challenging Gene Green. I'm challenging Donald Trump."
Garcia will give Green the toughest challenge he's ever seen in this safely blue seat, but he does have his own liabilities. Garcia angered many Democratic activists earlier this year when he decided to run for mayor. Garica was legally required to resign as sheriff, and there was no doubt that a Republican would be appointed to replace him. Garcia's mayoral rivals also questioned his performance while in office, especially when it came to handling the county jail. Garcia was further hurt by poor Hispanic turnout, which is likely to be an issue in March even in this overwhelmingly Hispanic district, and he took third place in the primary with 17 percent of the vote.
Unlike some members in safe House seats, Green has actually stockpiled his cash in case of a primary challenge. As of the end of September, Green has $1,166,000 on hand, and Garcia won't have much time to raise money. One minor Democrat is running, so its possible the Green-Garcia match could go to a runoff.
● VA-07: Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade, whose name had recently been mentioned as a possible primary challenger to GOP Rep. Dave Brat, now confirms he's "strongly considering" a bid. The National Journal's Kimberly Railey reports that establishment Republicans are "embracing" the idea of a Wade candidacy, but that comes with some downsides, too, as Brat's camp has already started pointing out Wade's ties to Eric Cantor, the man Brat upset in last year's shocking primary.
An advisor to Wade insists he would not run a "Cantor-revenge campaign," but no matter what Wade says, Brat and his House Freedom Caucus allies would surely view things that way. If Wade does go for it, we'd likely see a replay of a telenovela we've watched many times before: establishment money versus tea party anger. Brat already managed to tap into conservative disgust once before; he could very well pull it off again.
There's also still the matter of Rep. Randy Forbes, who will likely see his 4th District rendered unwinnably blue thanks to an expected round of court-ordered redistricting. A chunk of the 4th, though, would also wind up in a revised 7th District, offering Forbes an escape hatch if he wants to take on Brat (should Wade decline). Forbes hasn't spoken publicly about the idea, but the National Journal says he "did not respond to a request for comment," so that means he hasn't ruled anything out just yet.
Grab Bag:
● President-by-LD: Today we return to Wisconsin for a look at the 2014 statewide elections. We have the results calculated by district for state House, state Senate, and congressional district. We also have the results calculated for the 2012 presidential and Senate elections. You can find our master list of states here. Also be sure to check out Stephen Wolf's interactive state legislative maps.
Before launching his failed presidential campaign, Republican Gov. Scott Walker beat Democrat Mary Burke 52-47 in an expensive contest. Walker took six of the eight congressional districts, including Wisconsin's 3rd District. Obama had carried the 3rd 55-44, while Walker won it 50-49; however, Democratic Rep. Ron Kind held his seat 57-43. Burke carried the other two seats by comfortable margins.
The GOP drew the lines in both legislative chambers as well as the congressional boundaries, so it comes as no surprise that Walker won a huge amount of seats. While Democrats made a play for the Wisconsin Senate last year, the GOP expanded their majority to 19-14. Walker won 22 of the 33 seats, taking five Obama districts. While Democrats were originally optimistic that they'd win the open SD-17, which Obama carried 57-42, Walker ended up narrowly winning it 50-48, and the GOP held the seat 55-44. The Assembly was also lopsidedly Republican. Walker won 64 of the 99 seats, an improvement over Romney's 56 districts.
We also have the 2014 results calculated for the contests for attorney general, treasurer, and secretary of state. Democratic incumbent Doug La Follette won the secretary of state race 50-46 but like Obama in 2012, he still only took a minority of Wisconsin's districts. La Follette carried the 3rd Congressional District 52-44 as well as the dark blue 2nd and 4th, but he lost the other five seats. La Follette also won 14 of the 33 Senate districts, and 43 of the 99 Assembly seats.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.