Potential candidates are constantly getting "mentioned" for higher office, but who's doing all that work? Why, the Great Mentioner, of course. In this new ongoing series, Daily Kos channels the Great Mentioner and catalogs all the notable candidates who might run in 2016's most important races.
Republican Sen. David Vitter spent years gearing up to run for governor, only to lose in November to Democrat John Bel Edwards by a stunning 56-44 margin in a state that Romney carried 58-41. Vitter, who lost in no small part due to a 2007 prostitution scandal, quickly announced that while he would serve out the final year of his Senate term, he would not run for re-election in 2016.
This will almost certainly be the last Senate race to be resolved in 2016. Under Louisiana law, all candidates will run on one ballot in a November jungle primary. In the extremely likely event that no one takes a majority, the two contenders with the most votes will advance to a December runoff. Louisiana is a very conservative state in federal races, and the GOP is likely to keep this seat when all is said and done as long as they don’t nominate a candidate with Vitter’s liabilities. However, Democrats have some extra spring in their step after Edwards’ win, and Team Blue is looking to put this seat in play.
On the Republican side, two congressmen have already entered the race. Rep. Charles Boustany represents Acadiana, also known as Cajun Country. Boustany is close to the GOP House leadership and influential establishment Republicans are supporting him. Karl Rove’s American Crossroads group is reportedly planning to spend big money on him, and they’re enlisting donors to help his efforts. Boustany ended September with a hefty $1,458,000 war chest, giving him an early financial edge over most of his rivals.
The other Republican congressman who has kicked off his campaign is John Fleming, who comes from the Shreveport area in the northwest corner of the state. While both Fleming and Boustany are ardent conservatives, they hail from different wings of the Republican Party. Fleming is closer to tea party groups and he’s no friend of the GOP leadership. While Boustany has been a low-key House member, Fleming has made more headlines as a member of the tea party-flavored House Freedom Caucus. Fleming also drew some laughs in 2011, when he mistook an Onion article about an “Abortionplex” for a real news item. Fleming is wealthy and capable of doing some self-funding: As of September, he had $2,323,000 available to spend.
A third Republican, ex-Rep. Joseph Cao, has announced his campaign, but he probably won’t be much of a factor. Cao won a heavily Democratic seat in 2008 in a low turnout race against an indicted incumbent, then lost it in a landslide two years later. At least we’ll always have John Boehner’s “The Future Is Cao” press release to remember his glory days.
Several other Republicans have taken steps toward running. Retired Col. Rob Maness, a tea partier who took 14 percent of the vote in the 2014 Senate jungle primary, has filed to run, though he says he only has set up an exploratory committee. Maness will have a tough time grabbing a runoff spot, but he could cost Fleming some of the tea party friendly voters the congressman needs.
Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta has also formed an exploratory committee, and he’s reportedly told donors that he’ll decide by early March. Skrmetta drew some negative attention last year after an email from a solar industry lobbyist emerged that indicated that the industry would "privately and publicly support his re-election" in exchange for Skrmetta's vote on a favorable regulatory policy. Skrmetta denied any wrongdoing and narrowly defeated another Republican to win re-election last year. Skrmetta represents a metro New Orleans district, which is home to a few other possible GOP candidates.
Scott Angelle, one of Skrmetta’s GOP colleagues on the Public Service Commissioner, is also talking about running and says he’ll decide after the holidays. Angelle ran for governor and came surprisingly close to denying Vitter a place in the runoff against Edwards. Angelle refused to endorse Vitter afterward, which could cause him problems with Republicans who aren’t happy that Louisiana will have a Democratic governor. Angelle hails from Acadiana, so he could take some votes from Boustany if he gets in; Angelle also hasn’t ruled out running for Boustany’s House seat instead.
State Treasurer John Kennedy also says he’ll be deciding after the holidays. Kennedy ran for this seat in 2004 as a Democrat, and lost to then-Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 52-46 as a Republican. Kennedy spent heavily during his uncompetitive re-election campaign in October to boost his name recognition, and his allies have already formed a super PAC.
Jefferson Parish President John Young also has expressed interest in running. Young ran for lieutenant governor this year and performed relatively well, taking a close third in the October jungle primary. Young proved to be a good fundraiser, and he has good name recognition in metro New Orleans. State Rep. Paul Hollis, who briefly ran for the Senate last year, is also considering, though his campaign wasn’t very impressive. Zach Dasher, a Monroe-area businessman and a nephew of the protagonists of Duck Dynasty, has been mentioned as a possible candidate, but he hasn’t said anything publicly. Dasher ran for the House in 2014 and took a close third place in the jungle primary.
A few Democrats are making noises about getting in as well. State Sen. Eric LaFleur says he's looking at this contrast, and he'd be a good get if Team Blue can land him. LaFleur represents a seat that backed Romney 66-32, and he was mentioned as a rising star even before he aired this classic 2011 ad. However, despite sounding ready to run for Senate in 2010, LaFleur ended up passing on a bid.
Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell is also talking about getting in. Campbell, who hails from the Shreveport area, ran for governor in 2007, but few Democrats gave him much of a chance against then-Rep. Bobby Jindal. Campbell ended up taking fourth place with just 12 percent of the vote in the jungle primary.
We also have two Democrats who are reportedly thinking about running but have yet to say anything publicly. Smith represents a seat located between Baton Rouge and New Orleans that backed Romney 55-43, so he has some experience winning over the type of crossover voters a Democrat needs to win statewide. Smith is also capable of doing some self-funding.
Attorney Caroline Fayard comes from an influential political family, and she raised a respectable amount of money for her losing 2010 lieutenant governor campaign. However, Fayard's behavior after her 2010 defeat was concerning. In early 2011, Fayard declared that she "hates Republicans" because they are "cruel" and "eat their young," a very reckless thing to say in a red state. She tried to do some damage control by declaring she didn't support President Obama, which only seemed like a good way to alienate Democratic voters too. If Fayard re-enters the spotlight, Democrats had better hope that she's used her time in private life to become a lot more disciplined.
One notable independent is also talking up his chances. Troy Hebert served in the legislator as a Democrat before he took a job in GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal’s administration as Alcohol and Tobacco Control commissioner. Hebert says he'll decide whether to run shortly after Jan. 10, when his term ends.
For all of our posts in the Daily Kos Great Mentioner series, click here.