The latest ABC/WaPo poll gives another snapshot of the current state of the race on a national scale.
Poll: Clinton leads Sanders by 2-to-1, with wide edge on managing terrorism
Hillary Clinton holds a 2-to-1 national lead over Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, enjoying a wide advantage on handling terrorism while trailing her rival more narrowly on honesty, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Clinton receives 59 percent of the support among Democratic-leaning registered voters, while 28 percent back Sanders. Clinton’s standing changed little from the 60 percent received a month ago, while the Vermont senator’s support dipped from high of 34 percent in November. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley stands at 5 percent, compared with 2 percent in October.
Current numbers, previous month in parentheses.
Hillary 59% (60%)
Bernie 28% (34%)
O’Malley 5% (2%)
It appears Bernie is dipping. He had gone above 30% in several national polls last month, but now he has snapped below 30% again in almost every national poll we have seen. Hillary is steady at 59%, matching her previous month’s result of 60% (MoE noise.) O’Malley must have picked up a few percent of Bernie’s dropping-off support, but still at a very low 5% from last month’s 2%.
The margin between Hillary and Bernie has grown to 31% in this poll.
As we’ve seen in yesterday’s Monmouth poll, terrorism and ISIS has become a huge issue for Democrats. It is now the second-most important issue, behind “economy.”
The latest shift in focus to terrorism and national security after terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino plays to Clinton’s strengths, though a plurality of Democrats still say the economy is the most important issue to them. More than six in 10 (64 percent) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Clinton would better handle the threat of terrorism. That compares with 26 percent who give Sanders the edge.
Democrats and Democratic-leaners give Hillary a 64% to 26% edge over Bernie when it comes to handling the threat of terrorism.
Clinton also leads Sanders by 17 percentage points on which candidate is closest to them on issues and by 13 points on understanding people’s problems, with results little changed from October.
I had blogged a few weeks ago about the strong advantage Hillary has with Democrats on the issues that are important to Democratic voters, here. We are seeing that issues dynamic and advantage in this poll quite strongly as well. Democratic voters feel much more aligned with Hillary than Bernie on the issues important to them. Her lopsided advantage in “understanding people’s problems” speaks to her show of empathy and ability to listen to voters’ concerns, as well as outlining workable solutions that are meant to help the situation at hand.
Honesty represents Sanders’ clearest opening against Clinton. The poll found that 44 percent of Democrats say he is more honest and trustworthy than Clinton while 38 percent choose Clinton over Sanders. Among Democrats who currently support Clinton, only 6 in 10 say she is the more honest while about 2 in 10 choose Sanders and the rest rate them similarly or have no opinion.
44% to 38% in this metric for Bernie. Pretty close, but he has an advantage here.
Demographically, Sanders’s support is concentrated among liberal and white Democrats, but The Post-ABC poll finds his advantage among both groups has fallen in the past month.
In November, Sanders led Clinton by a 21-point margin among Democratic voters under age 40, but the new poll finds younger Democrats splitting him Clinton. Among liberal Democrats, Sanders now trails Clinton by 22 points, expanding from a 7-point edge in November. It is not clear why those numbers have shifted.
Bernie’s advantage over Hillary among young voters has melted away. In this poll Bernie held a 21% advantage over Hillary with voters under 40 years of age, now they are tied. Likewise, among liberal Democrats Hillary’s edge over Bernie was relatively close last month, only 7%, while in today’s poll Hillary’s advantage over Bernie with liberal Democrats has grown to 22%.
CONCLUSION
It appears that Hillary’s national lead is starting to widen some more, as her numbers stay at the same level while Bernie’s numbers are tapering off some. O’Malley continues to be a non-factor in this race. The main reason for Bernie’s somewhat dropping support is probably due to the fact that National Security and Terrorism is now a much bigger issue with Democrats, has become the second-most important issue with Democrats. On that issue Hillary has a huge advantage over Bernie with Democrats and Democratic-leaners. That likely accounts for Bernie’s numbers snapping back well under 30% in national polls now.
Update: Latest NH poll out shows Bernie's 8% lead shrink to 2%, a virtual tie.
www.bostonherald.com/...
On the Democratic side, Sanders’ double-digit lead has nearly evaporated and he tops Clinton only by a 48-46 percent margin — within the margin of error in the poll of 410 likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State.