REPUBLICANS
This graph of the polling composite tells it all:
I had a theory that went like this:
“Donald Trump’s support is shallow (only 1/3rd of Republicans), but strong and steady, and he’s maxed out. Ben Carson will crater and Ted Cruz will pick up his support. Marco Rubio will consolidate the establishment support but trail in the low teens.”
So far, my Rubio theory appears to be bearing fruit, but Trump? Hot damn, he’s suddenly the biggest beneficiary of Ben Carson’s collapse! To wit: One month ago, Trump was at 28.4 percent, Carson was at 21 percent, and Cruz was at 8.8 percent. Today, Trump is up to 35.1 percent (+6.7), Carson is at 13.9 percent (-7.1), and Cruz is up to 11.4 percent (+2.6). It’s quite obvious who the big winner is.
Let’s look at the polling driving those numbers:
|
TRUMP |
CARSON |
RUBIO |
CRUZ |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
11/21-25 |
37 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
11/14-18 |
37 |
14 |
11 |
8 |
YouGov/Economist |
11/19-23 |
36 |
10 |
14 |
12 |
11/5-9 |
32 |
18 |
13 |
10 |
ABC/WaPost |
11/16-19 |
32 |
22 |
11 |
8 |
10/15-18 |
32 |
33 |
10 |
6 |
Fox |
11/16-19 |
28 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
11/1-3 |
26 |
23 |
11 |
11 |
Carson is genuinely toasty toast toast. His campaign was predicated on honesty, and then it turned out he was a pathological liar. Goodbye! But don’t cry for him, the grift will keep him going for years, a la Sarah Palin. It’s lucrative being a dumb-fuck conservative.
Cruz has gained, but barely. He’ll get more of Carson’s waning support, but enough to be a threat? I’m not so sure anymore. Same with Rubio as he picks up Jeb Bush’s crumbs, but enough to matter?
Holy sweet jesus, Trump is going to be their nominee! Can the early states save the GOP from itself?
Nothing new from Iowa:
Given national trends, you’d expect a more pronounced Trump upswing and Carson downswing, but early states can oftentimes buck national trends.
Nothing new from New Hampshire, either:
Trump’s New Hampshire lead is deceptively dominant. While his lead over the rest of the field is massive, his specific number—27.3 percent—represents barely a quarter of the GOP electorate. He’s got more support in Iowa and nationally, despite having smaller leads in those two geographies.
So Rubio has nearly 12 percent in New Hampshire. Say he picks up Bush’s seven and Kasich’s seven, and suddenly he’s at 24 percent, nipping at Trump’s heels. In other words, if the establishment wants a real shot at damaging Trump, consolidating around Rubio (or Christie, etc) in the Granite State might be their best shot at stalling the frontrunner’s support. Easier said than done, of course, but not out of the realm of possibility.
DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton is up! Bernie Sanders is up! Good news for both, and bad news for both. But the overall state of the race is pretty much the same. Here’s the polling composite:
A month ago, it was 54.7 Clinton to 30.4 Sanders. Today it’s 56.6 (+1.9) to 31.7 (+1.3). It’s quite astonishing seeing two candidates in a de facto two-person race both trend upwards, but that’s what we’re seeing. Of course, this is ultimately good news for Clinton because at 56.6 percent, she’s well above the 50 percent mark. For Sanders to have any chance he has to cut into her support, and all he’s doing is splitting the undecideds with the frontrunner.
Here’s the most recent polling:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
11/21-25 |
58 |
30 |
11/14-18 |
59 |
26 |
YOUGOV/ECONOMIST |
11/19-23 |
54 |
34 |
11/5-9 |
59 |
31 |
ABC/WAPOST |
11/16-19 |
60 |
34 |
10/15-18 |
54 |
23 |
FOX |
11/16-19 |
55 |
32 |
11/1-3 |
56 |
31 |
As long as Clinton remains in the mid-to-high 50s, Sanders’ upside is limited. He remains stuck in that low-30s region, proving his continued inability to break out of his demographic cul de sac (young, white, educated, male).
As with the GOP side, there isn’t any new polling in Iowa and New Hampshire, but given national trends, I wouldn’t expect much movement from the status quo:
Iowa:
New Hampshire:
I’m praying to the political gods that New Hampshire remains this tight right up to election eve! It’d be nice to have at least some drama on our side of the aisle.
Hopefully we’ll have enough new polling to do this again later this week. If not, see you next week!