Polling update: Final 2015 status report

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Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday December 22, 2015 · 11:02 AM PST

2015/12/22 · 11:02

MANCHESTER, NH - DECEMBER 19: Supporters of both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders hold a rally on the campus of Saint Anselm College before tonight's Democratic debate on December 19, 2015 in Manchester, New Hampshire. Clinton and Sanders will square of

I’m squeezing one more of these before we hang it up for the year. And, as usual, we’re starting where the real action is: the Republican primary.

Republican presidential primary, national trendlines

Trump’s upward trajectory is starting to level off, but still headed up. Only Cruz and Chris Christie way down there at the bottom can say the same thing. Everyone else is cratering.

One interesting note: exactly six months ago, Jeb Bush led the field with 13 percent, Marco Rubio was in second with 9.5 percent, and Trump was third at 9 percent. Then he talked shit about Sen. John McCain being a POW, and that was that, given how the Republican base loves people who say horrible things.

Let’s take a look at the polls behind those trendlines:

		TRUMP	CRUZ	RUBIO	CARSON
Emerson College	12/17-20	36	21	13	7
Emerson College	10/16-17	32	6	14	23
Quinnipiac	12/16-20	28	24	12	10
Quinnipiac	10/29-11/2	27	16	17	16
FOX	12/16-17	39	18	11	9
FOX	11/16-19	28	14	14	18
Morning Consult	12/16-17	36	11	9	12
Morning Consult	12/11-15	40	9	7	10
PPP	12/16-17	34	18	13	6
PPP	11/16-17	26	14	13	19
Ipsos/Reuters	12/12-16	36	14	10	11
Ipsos/Reuters	12/5-9	37	11	12	13

Other than Q-poll, which has been consistently bearish on Trump, there is strong consensus on Trump’s numbers, not so much on Cruz. Trump is somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s, and Cruz is anywhere from low-to-high teens, or even low-to-mid 20s. That’s a big range. However, no one doubts that Cruz is surging, the direct beneficiary of Carson’s fall from grace.

An aside: Trump’s Republican opponents all appear to be flummoxed every time Trump attacks them with their poll numbers. His go-to comeback is: “If you’re so smart and I’m so terrible, how come I’m kicking your ass in the polls?” And no opponent has had a good response for that, when there’s such an easy one at hand: “You think you are so right and popular, but how come two-thirds of Republicans disagree with you? All of us on this stage may be splitting up the vote, but one thing is for sure—as much as you are dominating news coverage, how come you can barely get a third of Republicans to rally behind you?”

Okay, enough on that tangent.

In Iowa, it appears clear at this point that Cruz has made his move and has all the momentum. And considering that Cruz likely has a better ground game than Trump’s personality-driven effort, and it really is Cruz’s to lose.

There is one new poll added to the mix since we last checked in:

		CRUZ	TRUMP	RUBIO	CARSON
CBS/YouGov	12/14-17	40	31	12	6
CBS/YouGov	11/15-19	21	30	11	19

Looks like Trump is due for one of his patented Insult-Iowans-Then-Blame-It-On-The-Internet schticks. We’ve got more new numbers out of New Hampshire too:

		TRUMP	RUBIO	CRUZ	CHRISTIE
CBS/YouGov	12/14-17	32	13	14	11
CBS/YouGov	11/15-19	32	13	10	5
Franklin Pierce/Herald	12/13-17	25	12	12	11
Franklin Pierce/Herald	10/14-17	28	6	5	3

Trump is treading water, and Chris Christie is skyrocketting all the way up to 11 percent. Good for him! This is what “treading water” looks like in graph form:

Even as he gains nationally, Granite State Republicans don’t appear to be particularly impressed, at least none of the ones that didn’t already choose Team Trump back in September.

DEMOCRATS

For the first time since Hillary Clinton’s nadir in mid-September, we see the candidates moving in opposite directions, and not in a way that works to Bernie Sanders’ advantages. Last week, Clinton was at 54.6 percent to Sanders’ 29.5 percent, meaning that Clinton is +2.2 and Sanders is -1.3 after the latest round of polling.

		CLINTON	SANDERS
EMERSON COLLEGE	12/17-20	65	26
EMERSON COLLEGE	10/16-17	68	20
QUINNIPIAC	12/16-20	61	30
QUINNIPIAC	10/29-11/2	60	30
FOX	12/16-17	56	34
FOX	11/16-19	55	32
PPP	12/16-17	56	28
PPP	11/16-17	59	26
IPSOS/REUTERS	12/12-16	58	29
IPSOS/REUTERS	12/5-9	56	30

Actually, despite the shift in the aggregate, there really isn’t much here outside of a float in the margin of error. Maybe the aggregate was unduly influenced by that outlier-looking Emerson College poll. All-in-all, things are still pretty static, which of course is good for Clinton and not so good for Sanders. And that 30 percent demographic ceiling hasn’t gone anywhere.

Looking at that one new poll out of Iowa:

		CLINTON	SANDERS
CBS/YOUGOV	12/14-17	50	45
CBS/YOUGOV	11/15-19	50	44

YouGov has consistently given Sanders his best numbers in Iowa. His Iowa aggregate number right now is 37.6 percent (to Clinton’s 52.6 percent). Regardless, what I get from these trendlines is that (as expected during the holiday season) not much has changed in the last month.

And in New Hampshire:

		SANDERS	CLINTON
CBS/YOUGOV	12/14-17	56	42
CBS/YOUGOV	11/15-19	52	45
FRANKLIN PIERCE/HERALD	12/13-17	48	46
FRANKLIN PIERCE/HERALD	10/14-17	38	30

Advantage Sanders in the Granite State, where he maintains a nearly five-point lead in the composite:

With Sanders so close to that 50 percent mark, Clinton’s job of winning the state gets much harder.

So this is definitely the last polling roundup from me this year. See you guys after the turn of the calendar!

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