I’m squeezing one more of these before we hang it up for the year. And, as usual, we’re starting where the real action is: the Republican primary.
Trump’s upward trajectory is starting to level off, but still headed up. Only Cruz and Chris Christie way down there at the bottom can say the same thing. Everyone else is cratering.
One interesting note: exactly six months ago, Jeb Bush led the field with 13 percent, Marco Rubio was in second with 9.5 percent, and Trump was third at 9 percent. Then he talked shit about Sen. John McCain being a POW, and that was that, given how the Republican base loves people who say horrible things.
Let’s take a look at the polls behind those trendlines:
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
Emerson College |
12/17-20 |
36 |
21 |
13 |
7 |
10/16-17 |
32 |
6 |
14 |
23 |
Quinnipiac |
12/16-20 |
28 |
24 |
12 |
10 |
10/29-11/2 |
27 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
FOX |
12/16-17 |
39 |
18 |
11 |
9 |
11/16-19 |
28 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
Morning Consult |
12/16-17 |
36 |
11 |
9 |
12 |
12/11-15 |
40 |
9 |
7 |
10 |
PPP |
12/16-17 |
34 |
18 |
13 |
6 |
11/16-17 |
26 |
14 |
13 |
19 |
Ipsos/Reuters |
12/12-16 |
36 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
12/5-9 |
37 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
Other than Q-poll, which has been consistently bearish on Trump, there is strong consensus on Trump’s numbers, not so much on Cruz. Trump is somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s, and Cruz is anywhere from low-to-high teens, or even low-to-mid 20s. That’s a big range. However, no one doubts that Cruz is surging, the direct beneficiary of Carson’s fall from grace.
An aside: Trump’s Republican opponents all appear to be flummoxed every time Trump attacks them with their poll numbers. His go-to comeback is: “If you’re so smart and I’m so terrible, how come I’m kicking your ass in the polls?” And no opponent has had a good response for that, when there’s such an easy one at hand: “You think you are so right and popular, but how come two-thirds of Republicans disagree with you? All of us on this stage may be splitting up the vote, but one thing is for sure—as much as you are dominating news coverage, how come you can barely get a third of Republicans to rally behind you?”
Okay, enough on that tangent.
In Iowa, it appears clear at this point that Cruz has made his move and has all the momentum. And considering that Cruz likely has a better ground game than Trump’s personality-driven effort, and it really is Cruz’s to lose.
There is one new poll added to the mix since we last checked in:
|
CRUZ |
TRUMP |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
CBS/YouGov |
12/14-17 |
40 |
31 |
12 |
6 |
11/15-19 |
21 |
30 |
11 |
19 |
Looks like Trump is due for one of his patented Insult-Iowans-Then-Blame-It-On-The-Internet schticks. We’ve got more new numbers out of New Hampshire too:
|
TRUMP |
RUBIO |
CRUZ |
CHRISTIE |
CBS/YouGov |
12/14-17 |
32 |
13 |
14 |
11 |
11/15-19 |
32 |
13 |
10 |
5 |
Franklin Pierce/Herald |
12/13-17 |
25 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
10/14-17 |
28 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
Trump is treading water, and Chris Christie is skyrocketting all the way up to 11 percent. Good for him! This is what “treading water” looks like in graph form:
Even as he gains nationally, Granite State Republicans don’t appear to be particularly impressed, at least none of the ones that didn’t already choose Team Trump back in September.
DEMOCRATS
For the first time since Hillary Clinton’s nadir in mid-September, we see the candidates moving in opposite directions, and not in a way that works to Bernie Sanders’ advantages. Last week, Clinton was at 54.6 percent to Sanders’ 29.5 percent, meaning that Clinton is +2.2 and Sanders is -1.3 after the latest round of polling.
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
EMERSON COLLEGE |
12/17-20 |
65 |
26 |
10/16-17 |
68 |
20 |
QUINNIPIAC |
12/16-20 |
61 |
30 |
10/29-11/2 |
60 |
30 |
FOX |
12/16-17 |
56 |
34 |
11/16-19 |
55 |
32 |
PPP |
12/16-17 |
56 |
28 |
11/16-17 |
59 |
26 |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
12/12-16 |
58 |
29 |
12/5-9 |
56 |
30 |
Actually, despite the shift in the aggregate, there really isn’t much here outside of a float in the margin of error. Maybe the aggregate was unduly influenced by that outlier-looking Emerson College poll. All-in-all, things are still pretty static, which of course is good for Clinton and not so good for Sanders. And that 30 percent demographic ceiling hasn’t gone anywhere.
Looking at that one new poll out of Iowa:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
CBS/YOUGOV |
12/14-17 |
50 |
45 |
11/15-19 |
50 |
44 |
YouGov has consistently given Sanders his best numbers in Iowa. His Iowa aggregate number right now is 37.6 percent (to Clinton’s 52.6 percent). Regardless, what I get from these trendlines is that (as expected during the holiday season) not much has changed in the last month.
And in New Hampshire:
|
SANDERS |
CLINTON |
CBS/YOUGOV |
12/14-17 |
56 |
42 |
11/15-19 |
52 |
45 |
FRANKLIN PIERCE/HERALD |
12/13-17 |
48 |
46 |
10/14-17 |
38 |
30 |
Advantage Sanders in the Granite State, where he maintains a nearly five-point lead in the composite:
With Sanders so close to that 50 percent mark, Clinton’s job of winning the state gets much harder.
So this is definitely the last polling roundup from me this year. See you guys after the turn of the calendar!