Hillary Clinton, whose chances of becoming the 45th president have risen from ~35% to ~55%, has probably had the best year in Washington.
That is pretty exciting. i have been a fan of his work since he was here and now i follow him over at 538. i think he has a pretty good grasp of statistics and polling. i think what he tweeted wasn't a scientific explanation but from what i read of his follow up tweet to Jonathan Chait that he was looking at the betting sites and coming to a conclusion.. anyway the follow up tweet is this ..
That's pretty close to what you'll find in betting markets, based on what I think are some sensible assumptions.