Bernie Sanders is fairly well positioned to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, so much of Clinton’s hopes to bury him early rests on the southern-heavy Super Tuesday states. The strategy did not work in 2008 against Obama, and Bernie has potential to replicate that comeback in 2016.
8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. It’s why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Don’t Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didn’t overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.
In October 2007, Clinton had an “insurmountable” 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.
Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernie’s support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.
Much of the problem has been and continues to be that Bernie Sanders simply is not widely known yet. The more people get to know him, the more they like him.
Bernie has been a strong Civil Rights champion since the 1960's, and continuing on throughout the decades to today. Bernie has repeatedly spoken out against and sponsored/ cosponsored a lot of bills to try to end institutional racism. The NAACP gave him a 100% lifetime rating for his strong support of Civil Rights.
Compared side by side, Bernie's stances and track record are unparalleled. He does more than just say the words. He has a long, authentic track record to back it up and the strongest proposals to fix what’s wrong as noted by Campaign Zero.
Tackling structural inequality is at the heart of Bernie Sanders’ campaign and Bernie's racial justice platform addresses the four central types of violence waged against black and brown Americans: physical, political, legal and economic, and has won a lot of respect from Black Lives Matter activists. It is part of the reason why the Co-Chair of the Progressive Caucus Keith Ellison endorsed him. It’s why he is winning such enthusiastic support from other activists.
Cornel West in South Carolina: “I endorse brother Bernie Sanders because he is a long distance runner with integrity in the struggle for justice for over 50 years.”
Nina Turner 'Feels the Bern' in Cleveland: “What about a justice system that is unjust to African Americans and our Hispanic brothers and sisters? Enough is enough is enough. Bernie Sanders has a racial justice platform that wants to away with the 4 types of violence waged against people of color.”
Killer Mike in Atlanta: “I am here as a proponent of this political revolution that says that health care is a right of every citizen. In my heart of hearts, I truly believe that Bernie Sanders is the right man to lead this country.”
Bernie was also one of only 2 Democratic Candidates that came to the BET Justice Forum (Martin O’Malley was the other, along with Ben Carson on the GOP side), and gave a very long, detailed speech on how he plans to fight the entrenched system of racism in America.
The more people get to know Bernie, the more they like him. Once he proves he can win by taking Iowa and/or New Hampshire, much deeper inroads will be made, and he has a real opportunity to shock the political establishment once again by ‘Berning’ through Clinton’s Southern Firewall, just like Barack Obama did 8 years ago.