Leading Off:
● IN-Sen, FL-Sen: When a campaign goes through a staff shakeup, there are a few clues that can help you determine whether we're seeing an episode of ordinary personnel turnover, or if instead a much graver sort of disruption is afoot. One critical warning sign: your own supporters are ragging on you. We're seeing that right now with GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman, who just parted ways with his media and online strategists. Back in October, Stutzman got rid of his campaign manager and political director, so this, reports Andrea Drusch, is the culmination of a long effort to replace Beltway veterans with local operatives who more aligned with Stutzman's insurgent, tea party style.
And, reports Drusch, the overhaul has some Stutzman allies anxious. One anonymous strategist says emails have shot around expressing "cause for concern" about "what the hell's going on with Marlin Stutzman and his campaign." But establishment Republicans, desperate to avoid a Richard Mourdock redux, will be pleased if Stutzman's Club for Growth-backed campaign crumbles.
Establishment Democrats, of course, feel the same way about Rep. Alan Grayson in Florida, whose friends are likewise unhappy with him. One, wealthy personal injury attorney John Morgan, even went on the record to bash Grayson after his recent mass exodus of top talent, saying, "I've been saying for months that Alan will self-implode because he can't help himself. And it's happening now." Ouch.
But Grayson, unlike Stutzman, is flashing a second warning sign. Stutzman had already hired replacements before his latest staff departures. Grayson, however, seems to have done no such thing. In fact, just an hour before the news broke last week that three of his top aides (including his campaign manager) were all quitting, Grayson denied it all to a reporter. If you have an orderly transition in place, then staff changeover is much less worrying for the health of your campaign. But if people are just bailing with no clear plan of succession, then that's a lot more troubling. As one nameless "longtime Grayson supporter" put it, Grayson "wants to be the congressman. And he wants to be the campaign manager." That ain't gonna work.
Senate:
● LA-Sen: Shortly after Sen. David Vitter announced he wouldn't seek re-election next year following his humiliating defeat in last month's gubernatorial runoff, GOP Rep. John Fleming promised a "formal announcement" for his own Senate bid, and on Monday, he delivered. (Fleming, a physician, is best-known to snark lovers for actually thinking that The Onion's "abortionplex" was real.) Rep. Charles Boustany also pledges to make a similar "formal announcement," but we're still waiting on him to make it official. A bunch of other Republicans, a few notable Democrats, and one independent former state lawmaker are also in the mix, so there's still a lot of thread left to unspool on this one.
● MD-Sen: We can't say that Rep. Elijah Cummings' ever-changing plans and endless delays are merely getting ridiculous—they simply are ridiculous at this point. When Sen. Barbara Mikulski announced her retirement back in March, Cummings, a fellow Democrat, quickly acknowledged that he was looking at a bid to succeed her. Just weeks later, Politico reported that Cummings "appears to be on the verge of running"; that turned out to be wrong, but in April, Cummings released an internal poll showing him leading a hypothetical Democratic primary.
By the time June rolled around, though, Cummings had done nothing more to prepare for a statewide bid, though he insisted he was still considering the race. Then, in August, he surprised observers when he hired a veteran fundraiser with experience working for a pair of senators. The following month, a prominent local clergyman, Jamal Bryant, announced he'd run for Cummings' House seat, expecting the incumbent to run for Senate after all.
Shortly thereafter, on Sept. 22, Cummings said he'd announce his plans "in maybe less than two weeks." But just a week after launching his campaign, Bryant dropped out after personally talking with Cummings, which could only mean he expected Cummings to seek re-election.
Then the story changed yet again. With his two-week quasi-deadline about to expire, Cummings declared he wouldn't make up his mind until after Hillary Clinton testified before the Benghazi committee, where he serves as the ranking member. While that might have seemed plausible on its face, Clinton's Oct. 22 appearance had been scheduled long in advance, yet Cummings never cited it as something he wanted to get behind him until just a couple of weeks beforehand.
We then learned that Cummings efforts to boost his fundraising didn't pan out even remotely: He brought in just $136,000 in the third quarter—feeble money even for a House campaign. But after Clinton's testimony, there still was no announcement. Instead, Cummings then said he'd need a "month or less" to come to a decision.
You won't be surprised to learn that a month later, he still hadn't said anything one way or the other. And this is even crazier: Baltimore City Council President Jack Young just endorsed Rep. Chris Van Hollen in the Senate race, saying that Cummings himself assured him that he wasn't running. But nameless Cummings aides then told the Baltimore Sun that their boss was still undecided!
So yeah, this whole saga has been absurd, but the only one hurt by it is Cummings himself. Not only has his hesitancy cost him in money and support, but his dithering hasn't made him look good and doesn't speak well of his ability to run what would be a difficult, last-minute campaign. Van Hollen has raised tons of cash and scored lots of endorsements right in Cummings' own back yard of Baltimore, while another contender, Rep. Donna Edwards, has big-time backing from EMILY's List.
The primary is fast approaching on April 26. Recent polls still show Cummings with a name-recognition advantage, but he would have been able to capitalize far more effectively had he decided long ago. It makes no sense that he's waited so long—and jerked so many people around along the way.
● NH-Sen: PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan tied at 42, which, as you'd expect, is virtually unchanged from Hassan's 44-43 edge back in October. The only notable shift came in Hassan's job approval rating, which has fallen from 50-39 to 43-40. But this isn't a case of a governor who once sported a decent measure of bipartisan support losing Republican backing. Rather, Hassan's numbers have mostly dropped among Democrats, which Tom Jensen speculates may be the result of her shameful hostility toward Syrian refugees.
Gubernatorial:
● NH-Gov: New Hampshire's gubernatorial race is still a contest of name recognition, according to PPP's latest poll. Democrats have a 43-41 lead on a generic ballot, but Republican Chris Sununu, who is known by 67 percent of voters thanks to his famous family, leads his two little-known Democratic opponents by small margins: 40-34 over Colin Van Ostern and 40-36 against Mark Connolly. Sununu also swamps fellow Republican Frank Edelbut 60-12 in the GOP primary. Van Ostern, meanwhile, has a 21-15 edge on Connolly for the Democratic nod, which might as well be no lead at all given the massive number of undecideds.
● WV-Gov: Coal billionaire Jim Justice has released a second internal poll of West Virginia's open governor's race, once again from Global Strategy Group, and it finds him leading state House Minority Leader Jeff Kessler 48-25 in the Democratic primary. Justice didn't share primary results when he put out his previous survey in September, but a Kessler internal had Justice up 2 while an independent poll put him ahead 6 (both were taken in August). Since then, Justice has been running positive biographical spots on TV, which makes his current lead plausible.
That paid media campaign would also explain his growing advantage in the general election, where he leads Republican Bill Cole, the president of the state Senate, 44-32. In his September poll, Justice had a smaller 36-30 lead. However, 44 percent is a long way from 50 for a Democrat running in a red state, especially when no one else has been on the airwaves.
House:
● CA-20: Even though he's term-limited in his current job, Assemblyman Luis Alejo has decided not to run for retiring Rep. Sam Farr's House seat and will instead pursue a spot on Monterey County's board of supervisors. That makes him the third notable Democrat to defer to prosecutor Jimmy Panetta, who is the son of ex-Rep. Leon Panetta. Some other candidates are still considering, but it's very possible that Panetta could waltz his way to victory in this dark blue seat.
● FL-05: Even though one of Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum's own advisors recently went on the record to say that Gillum is considering a run for Florida's redrawn 5th Congressional District (now runs for Jacksonville to Tallahassee), Gillum himself is downplaying the idea. In a new interview, Gillum, a Democrat, said, "I have no plans of running for Congress. I absolutely love my job as mayor." Of course, as keen political observers well know, saying you have "no plans" is emphatically not the same as saying "no."
But with Democratic Rep. Corinne Brown doing her best to alienate half of her new constituency (she previously declared that her hometown of Jacksonville "has nothing in common with North Florida"), the 36-year-old Gillum has a great opportunity to advance his career. In fact, Brown hasn't even confirmed she'll seek re-election yet; instead, she's filing a hopeless lawsuit against the new lines. The one difficulty for Gillum is that other politicians from his neck of the woods, such as ex-state Sen. Al Lawson, might split the Tallahassee vote in a primary if they also run. But so far no one's taken the plunge, and Gillum could gain a first-mover advantage if he jumps in now.
● FL-22: Attorney Stephanie Toothaker had previously indicated she might run in South Florida's revamped 22nd Congressional District, which now mostly consists of Broward County. But with Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch deciding to seek re-election in this seat, Toothaker has opted not to run against him in the primary and instead will serve as his campaign co-chair. It's possible that Deutch, who is only 49, could one day run for statewide office, especially since his redrawn (and solidly blue) district will offer him more exposure in Miami's big media market. Toothaker could thus be positioning herself to succeed Deutch should he ever try for a promotion.
● IN-08: Former Democratic state Rep. David Orentlicher, a physician and attorney, just announced that he'd run against GOP Rep. Larry Buchson, who sits seat that should be out of reach for Democrats under normal circumstances. However, Bucshon underperformed the top of the ticket considerably during the last presidential election, beating then-state Rep. Dave Crooks by a 53-43 margin while Mitt Romney carried it 58-40. And it's also worth pointing out that Barack Obama performed much better here in 2008, when he pulled off a big upset to win Indiana and only trailed John McCain 51-48 in the 8th District.
But while Democrats held this southwestern slice of the state for two terms at the end of the last decade, Orentlicher would have a hard time recreating that magic. He doesn't have much connection to the district beyond teaching at Indiana University's Terre Haute campus and is only now moving there. He also unsuccessfully ran in the Democratic primary in the 7th District back in 2007, which is based in Indianapolis and is very different territory from the 8th.
● VA-04: Pending redistricting litigation is set to turn Virginia's 4th Congressional District from a seat that GOP Rep. Randy Forbes has handily held down for many years into one that would be basically impossible for Republicans to win. Though the court hearing the case has not issued a final ruling (a hearing is set for Dec. 14), and the U.S. Supreme Court could yet bollix things up as it weighs an appeal from Republicans, Democrats are already showing interest. Roll Call's Simon Pathé reports Secretary of the Commonwealth Levar Stoney (an appointee of Gov. Terry McAuliffe) is considering, while state Del. Lionell Spruill, Sr. says he's keeping his "options open." Another possibility is Chesapeake City Council Member Ella Ward, whom Forbes beat 57-43 in 2012. Previously, state Sen. Don McEachin had said he's looking, too.
Legislative:
● Specials: Johnny Longtorso brings us the lowdown on two Midwestern races:
Iowa HD-21: This is an open Republican seat located southwest of Des Moines. The Democratic nominee is Tim Ennis, who ran for this seat in 2014 and lost 64-36. The Republican nominee is Tom Moore, a retired teacher. This seat went 54-45 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Minnesota HD-3A: This is an open Democratic seat located in the Iron Range, north of Duluth. The Democratic candidate is Rob Ecklund, a Koochiching County commissioner, while the Republican candidate is Roger Skraba, a former mayor of Ely (population 3,460). Also running is independent Kelsey Johnson, a lobbyist. This seat went 55-42 for President Obama in 2012.
Grab Bag:
● Where Are They Now?: Two 2015 Republican gubernatorial candidates have just landed gig with the guys who beat them in the primary. Louisiana's outgoing lieutenant governor, Jay Dardenne, had previously said he was in talks with Democrat John Bel Edwards about a job; he'll now serve as Edwards' commissioner of administration, which is the governor's chief budget official. Meanwhile, businessman Hal Heiner, a major proponent of charter schools, will become Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin's secretary of education.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.