This week we'll find out whether Speaker John Boehner will finally face down the House crazy caucus to pass a bill that funds the Department of Homeland Security absent all the anti-immigrant provisions they originally inserted into the last bill (i.e. will the House pass a "clean" funding bill?). Funding for the department runs dry this Friday. For now, Boehner
continues to blame the Senate and, by extension, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, for not acting.
Here's a sober assessment of how the episode will play out from one former Republican Senate staffer and current GOP operative.
“This might be a tough learning experience for House Republicans to understand that Senate Republicans might have a majority, but not enough for the 60 votes it takes to pass almost everything there,” said Ron Bonjean, co-founder of Singer Bonjean Strategies and a former senior Senate GOP staffer. “Eventually they are going to have to pass a short-term fix or completely fold before or after a shutdown.”
And here's the state of play:
1) A conservative Texas judge offered Boehner an escape hatch last week when he put Obama's immigration actions on hold. Presumably that should give Boehner room to maneuver, telling the crazy caucus that the courts have blocked Obama's 2014 initiatives, which could provide deportation relief for up to five million undocumented immigrants.
2) This afternoon, Sen. McConnell is forcing a fourth doomed vote on the House's anti-immigrant bill that has zero chance of attracting enough Democratic votes to advance the legislation. In fact, even some Republicans are taking a pass on the procedural vote, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who would rather spend quality time with New Hampshire voters than engage in McConnell's folly.
Rubio’s spokesman Alex Conant confirms that Rubio will miss the vote, since he doesn’t expect it to pass.
“Yes, he’s expected to miss the same procedural vote on Monday afternoon that he’s already cast several times already and we know will not pass,” Conant said in an email to Breitbart News.
Head below the fold for more.
3) Republicans are even having problems getting the GOP conservatives to buy into the weakest and easiest solution for now—passing a short-term funding bill for DHS.
[C]onservative groups contend that caving to the Democratic minority in the first two months of majority reign could have far more dire consequences for the GOP's congressional power than a partial government shutdown ever could.
"It's about more than immigration," says Dan Holler, a spokesman for Heritage Action for America, a conservative grassroots group that tracks members' voting records. "They are locked into this position ... If Sen. [Mitch] McConnell reverses course and pulls this bill, without forcing the Democrats to get on it, that is going to embolden Senate Democrats to hold out constantly on every single bill."
4) If the Republican Congress fails to fund the department, Homeland Security Sec. Jeh Johnson says about 240,000 would be forced to continue working but without getting a pay check. Only about 30,000 would be furloughed.
5) Other political consequences include the continued threat to the confirmation of Obama's Attorney General nominee, Loretta Lynch.
Some Republicans have said they plan to oppose Ms. Lynch after she vouched for the legality of the president’s executive action on immigration. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to vote Thursday on her nomination.