Leading Off:
• President-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to begin the 2014 round of our president-by-LD project. This time around, we'll be calculating the 2014 statewide results according to legislative (and congressional) districts for all 50 states. And to kick off our effort, we're unveiling our new interactive state legislative maps, created by Stephen Wolf.
You can see an example above, with our map of the Pennsylvania state Senate, a chamber that Republicans control 30-20. Districts in solid blue were carried by Barack Obama and are represented by a Democrat, while those in solid red were won by Mitt Romney and are held by a Republican. Lighter red districts voted for Obama and a Republican legislator, while those in lighter blue went for Romney and a Democratic legislator.
These maps reflect the results of the 2014 elections and are color-coded based on two factors: whether Obama or Romney carried the district, and what party the legislator who represents it belongs to. As you can imagine, most of the states have gotten redder since the last version (which we've included as well in our bookmark-worthy perma-post). And we'll continue to update these maps to reflect any vacancies, special elections, appointments, and party switches.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Despite spending weeks hinting at a Senate campaign that was always so close you could almost taste it, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa announced on Tuesday that he would not run after all.
Villaraigosa would have started out with plenty of name recognition in voter-rich Southern California, but he consistently trailed fellow Democrat and state Attorney General Kamala Harris in hypothetical matchups. Villaraigosa almost certainly decided that he wasn't going to beat Harris (who is still the only credible candidate in the race), and is probably going to scope out a 2018 gubernatorial campaign against the less-intimidating Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. Indeed, Villaraigosa's statement hints at a gubernatorial bid, saying, "I know that my heart and my family are here in California, not Washington, D.C."
Reps. Xavier Becerra and Loretta Sanchez, who like Villaraigosa hail from Southern California, reaffirmed hours after his announcement that they are still interested in the Senate. Becerra said that he'll make his choice in the summer or fall, while all Sanchez indicated that she'll make a decision sooner than she initially planned. But with Harris continuing to raise serious money and collect endorsements, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if they both stayed out.
There's a lot less activity on the Republican side, but the GOP is still hoping to land a credible candidate for this very uphill race. David Dreier's spokesman confirms that the ex-congressman has been asked by encouraged to run by unnamed groups, though it's unclear if he's at all interested. Dreier was a relative moderate in the House and only retired after redistricting eliminated any chance he had to get re-elected. While he'd definitely have his work cut out for him, the GOP can do worse.
Speaking of worse, former state party chair Tom Del Beccaro recently formed an exploratory committee for a potential Senate run. Del Beccaro's tour of duty during the 2012 cycle didn't go particularly well, with the state GOP finding itself deep in debt and forced to lay off staff. The California Republican Party has been in bad shape for a long time so it's hard to place the blame entirely (or perhaps even primarily) on Del Beccaro, but it's not exactly a harbinger of future success.
• CO-Sen, IA-Sen: Quinnipiac's new Colorado and Iowa polls only contain approval ratings and no head-to-head matchups for either state's Senate races, but we'll take what we can get. In the Rocky Mountain State, Sen. Michael Bennet, one of just two vulnerable Democrats up this cycle, sports a positive 36-26 score but still is unknown to almost two in five voters. Meanwhile, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa has an impressive 67-21 rating, showing how hard he'll be to dislodge.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio has seemed a lot more interested in running for president than in re-election to the Senate for a while, but he's always stayed mum about his plans, beyond saying he wouldn't try to run for both offices at once. However, according to a new report in the New York Times, Rubio is "quietly telling donors" he intends to go for the White House. Needless to say, Democrats would be quite happy to see Rubio vacate his Senate seat, and ambitious Republicans would pile in, too.
• OH-Sen: According to the Northeast Ohio Media Group's Henry Gomez, ex-Gov. Ted Strickland will announce a bid against GOP Sen. Rob Portman on Wednesday. This would be a very big get for Democrats, so stay tuned.
Gubernatorial:
• MD-Gov: In an aside in a profile of Labor Secretary Tom Perez, CNN gives him Great Mentioner treatment as a possible Democratic candidate for governor in 2018. Perez at one point served as a Montgomery County councilmember, so he does have some electoral experience, and CNN describes him as a budding "liberal hero" for his advocacy on behalf of workers. But plenty of Democrats will be interested in trying to take back the governorship after Republican Larry Hogan's big upset last year, and there are several other possible names in the mix, including Rep. Chris Van Hollen, former state Attorney General Doug Gansler (ugh), and former Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, who was the party's nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014.
• MO-Gov: While both former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway and state Auditor Tom Schweich are expected to have plenty of money in next year's Republican primary, they aren't exactly scaring any other gubernatorial hopefuls out of the race. While only former state Rep. Randy Asbury has joined them so far, a few other Republicans are weighing their options.
Businessman and 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner expressed interest in this seat a year ago, but he'd been quiet ever since. However, at a statewide GOP gathering over the weekend, Brunner confirmed that he's still thinking about it, saying, "I am looking to see where I can best be of help." Brunner's Senate bid wasn't incredibly impressive, but he definitely has the money to make an impact.
Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder also seems to be looking at his options. Kinder previously announced that he'd seek a fourth term and while he's not backing away from it, he gave himself some wiggle room over the weekend. Kinder only said he's not running for governor "right now," not exactly a Shermanesque statement. Kinder sought the governorship in the 2012 cycle but dropped out after a series of missteps. However, he turned around and won a tough primary and general so he clearly has some juice left in him, though he can still generate headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens recently was the subject of a long and glowing profile at the Washington Free Beacon, where he expressed interest in running for "something in the executive branch where I can lead and actually make a difference, governor or lieutenant governor." Greitens is a former White House Fellow and founder of a well-funded non-profit group, so it sounds like he has the connections to make a splash. He's also been featured prominently in Fortune Magazine and Time, so he wouldn't have much trouble getting media attention.
House:
• MS-01: Gov. Phil Bryant has set the dates for the special election to succeed the late Alan Nunnelee. The first round will be held May 12, and the likely runoff will be June 2. In the Magnolia State, all the contenders run on one non-partisan ballot, and the top-two will advance to the runoff if no one takes a majority. Romney won this northern Mississippi district 62-37, so the GOP is expected to easily hold Nunnelee's seat this spring.
While candidates have until March 27 to file for the seat, anyone who was already planning to seek re-election in the regular 2015 elections will need to decide what to do very soon. As the Clarion-Ledger's Sam Hall tells us, an incumbent who wants to run in the special can recruit an ally to run against them in the August statewide primary. If the office-holder gets elected to Congress in June, he or she would allow their "challenger" to win their old post. If the special doesn't go so well, the "challenger" would step aside for August, allowing the incumbent to just turn around and seek re-election. The statewide filing deadline is on Friday, so anyone who wants to try running for both posts at once will need to set things in motion now.
We also got our first official contender on Tuesday, with state Rep. Chris Brown entering the race. There are plenty of other Republicans who might run, but we can cross two more off the list. On Monday, state Sen. Gray Tollison announced that he wouldn't seek MS-01. His wife Amanda Tollison has been mentioned as a potential candidate, but she hasn't given any indication that she's interested. Hernando Mayor Chip Johnson also filed to run for the Transportation Commission, removing himself from consideration for the House.
• NY-11: Local Democrats haven't yet made it official, but New York City Councilman Vincent Gentile is going to be the party's nominee in the May 5 special election to replace ex-Rep. Mike Grimm. That's because the only two other candidates under consideration, Assemblyman William Colton and activist Robert Holst, both dropped out of the running in recent days. Gentile will face Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan in a race Republicans are strongly favored to win.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty
