John McCain starts out the cycle in real danger in both the Republican primary and in the general election
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Until recently, Sen. John McCain had been accustomed to easy victories in both GOP primaries and general elections. However, the senator has never had a good relationship with the far-right wing of his party, and they've been hoping to unseat him for years. In 2010, tea party groups rallied behind former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, but his disorganized campaign never went far. McCain ran to the right and beat Hayworth 56-32 before cruising to victory in November.
But this cycle, McCain's intra-party enemies think they'll be able to land a tougher challenger. Democrats have also been eyeing Arizona for a pickup in a year where Team Blue will need to win several tough races to retake the Senate. A Public Policy Polling survey from last March gave McCain a horrible 30-54 job approval rating and found members of his own party disapproved of him by a 35-55 spread. If McCain's numbers look anything like this next year (there have been no follow-up polls yet), the senator will be in real danger.
McCain has not officially announced his 2016 plans, but he's made it clear that he's very likely to run for re-election. The senator has also been raising money and purging his enemies from key party positions. But Reps. Matt Salmon and David Schweikert, who both hail from the Phoenix suburbs, are considering taking him on in the primary. The two congressmen say they will not run against each other and are internally trying to decide which one should make the jump. Local operatives think Salmon is more interested, and he would start out with far more money available than Schweikert.
Wealthy former GoDaddy attorney Christine Jones, who placed third in last year's gubernatorial primary, hasn't ruled anything out either, but she doesn't sound incredibly excited about challenging McCain. Some tea party groups also hope that Sarah Palin, who moved to the state a few years ago, will take on her old running-mate. Glorious as such a prospect would be, this isn't exactly likely to happen.
Whoever does emerge as McCain's main rival should have some outside help. The well-funded Club for Growth has spent millions in primaries against Republican incumbents it doesn't consider to be sufficiently purist and unseating McCain would be their most high-profile victory to date. While the group hasn't committed to anything, the Club has indicated it's very likely they'll get involved as long as they have a viable candidate to back. Other outside conservative groups will also likely spend here as well. McCain will have his allies, and he proved in 2010 that he can run a tough campaign, but 2016 should be his most difficult re-election contest yet.
Arizona is a conservative state, and Democrats have fallen short here in recent statewide contests. But between the possibility of a damaged and unpopular McCain getting nominated or a tea partier making it to the general, Team Blue is taking a look here. The most likely contender is sophomore Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who has not ruled out a bid. Sinema, a recent inductee into the dying Blue Dog Coalition, has also cast some conservative votes in the House and has formed a leadership PAC, both of which seem to foreshadow a statewide bid in 2016 or soon after.
There are other Democrats who could run, but none of them seem as interested in Sinema. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick survived a tough 2014 race in her light red district in the midst of the Republican wave, and she'd be a tough candidate. However, she hasn't said much publicly about her intentions. Former Surgeon General and 2012 nominee Richard Carmona could also try, though he hasn't given much indication that he wants to run for office again. Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton is another prospect, but he's up for re-election in 2015 and seems happy in his current job; Tucson Mayor Jonathan Rothschild is in a similar spot. Freshman Rep. Ruben Gallego might also run for higher office down the line, but he may be reluctant to risk his spot in Congress so early in his career.
The Democrats' dream candidate would be Gabby Giffords, but she's given no sign that she wants to run for office in the near future. Her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, has occasionally been touted, though he's yet to show any interest in running for anything. But if either of them starts to look at this contest, national Democrats would immediately take notice.
We have a long way to go here, but it looks like we're in for an unpredictable primary and what could be an exciting general election campaign.
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