Evan Bayh
Leading Off:
• IN-Sen: Former Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh already announced last year that he wouldn't launch a gubernatorial comeback bid in 2016, but he sounds far less opposed to a return to the Senate. In a paywalled piece at Politico Pro, Bayh only said "I have no interest at this point."
The "at this point" part is crucial, because Republican Sen. Dan Coats, the man who succeeded Bayh in 2010, still hasn't announced whether he'll seek re-election, though he's promised a decision by April 5. If Coats does bail, as seems very possible, then Bayh might suddenly find himself a lot more interested.
Of course, it was never at all clear why Bayh left the Senate in the first place, and he did so in a manner that infuriated fellow Democrats: Bayh's retirement came as a total surprise, and he quit in the midst of an awful cycle that all but ensured his seat would change hands. He also selfishly hung on to a horde of campaign cash, which still weighs in at a massive $10 million.
Perhaps Bayh feared he might lose in 2010. Perhaps he really was sick of the Senate, as he claimed at the time. Or perhaps he just wanted to cash out, as he did in remarkably hypocritical fashion. But presumably Bayh's been holding on to that pile of money for a reason, and while he has a strong penchant for douchiness, he'd immediately put this seat in play for Democrats, and you know the DSCC would not be unhappy about that in the slightest.
Senate:
• CA-Sen: It'd hard to say why the many California Democrats who are still considering Senate bids are, well, still considering rather than making up their minds. Not only has Kamala Harris scooped up tons of endorsements—including a big one from EMILY's List just the other day—but she's had a ton of time to raise money and cement perceptions that she's the party's undisputed frontrunner (a view buttressed by all the early polling).
But at least three members of the House, all from Southern California, continue to weigh their options, though at least they've now given rough timetables as to when we can expect to hear about their choices. Loretta Sanchez says she plans to decide in "four to six weeks" (so, mid-to-late April); Adam Schiff by "the end of May"; and Xavier Becerra, more vaguely, in the "next few months." Time's a-wastin', though. As Rep. Brad Sherman, who is not thinking about running, incisively put it: "Each of us is relatively well-known in 1/53 of the state. That's what you start with." And that ain't much.
• NH-Sen, Gov, 01: Not long after losing to Republican Frank Guinta last November ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter declared that "everything is on the table" as far as possible comeback was concerned. While a fourth consecutive match with Guinta (who won in 2010, lost in 2012, and won again in 2014) would be the most obvious choice, Shea-Porter specifically refused to rule out running for Senate or governor, noting that she had yet to talk to Gov. Maggie Hassan about her plans.
Now we have more of a hint as to where things stand. In a recent email to her list, Shea-Porter said that she'd support Hassan if she ran against GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte, which would be national Democrats' top preference. That could leave open a bid to succeed Hassan as governor, or, of course, another tête-à-tête with Guinta. If Hassan doesn't run, though, perhaps Shea-Porter might indeed go for Senate gold. She's a weak fundraiser and not an establishment fave, but she has a devoted progressive following and could certainly win a primary.
House:
• IL-18: One surprising thing about GOP Rep. Aaron Schock's quickie resignation announcement is that he didn't wait to try and trade his departure from Congress for more lenient treatment by law enforcement, a very common tactic in such situations. And now that we have news of a widening investigation into his shady spending habits—a grand jury has been convened, and the FBI is looking at Schock, too—you really have to wonder why Schock pulled the ripcord in such a hurry.
Schock hasn't formally quit just yet—he says he'll leave on March 31—so technically he still has this chip in his back pocket. But all the feds have to do is wait him out for another week. If he refuses to stick with his plans, then we'd have the extraordinarily ugly spectacle of a congressman clawing to his golden wall sconces while prosecutors hound him daily. Well, he was dumb enough to get into this mess in the first place.
Meanwhile, Republicans back in Peoria are certainly acting like they expect Schock to vacate his posh digs any day now. GOP consultant Mike Flynn says he's interested in a bid, chiefly because he's not happy that the establishment is trying to smooth the way for state Sen. Darin LaHood—son of ex-Rep. Ray LaHood, who was also a Republican but served in Barack Obama's cabinet. However, Flynn hasn't lived in the district in 20 years.
One more potential candidate did just take himself out of consideration, though: State Rep. Mike Unes said on Friday that he would not run for Schock's seat. But several other Republicans are still looking, including businessman Ed Brady, state Rep. Dan Brady (no relation), and former state Rep. Jil-with-one-L Tracy.
Other Races:
• Chicago Mayor: Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia's newest and biggest allies, the SEIU, have started unloading on Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel with a new TV ad. The spot utilizes a good visual metaphor, showing images of the city's gleaming skyscrapers as a narrator says, "From up here, Chicago's never looked better." Transitioning to a crime scene on the city streets, however, the voiceover continues: "But down here, under Mayor Rahm Emanuel we've seen nearly 10,000 shootings," school closings, higher taxes on working people, and tax breaks for the wealthy, plus a claim that Rahm has been attacking Chuy unfairly. That feels like too many messages for a single ad.
There's no word on the size of the buy, but SEIU supposedly plans to spend $2 million on the race. The runoff is coming up fast, though, on April 7.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: Ex-Rep. Bob Kastenmeier, a progressive Democrat who represented the Madison-area WI-02 for a whopping 32 years (1959 to 1991), died Friday at the age of 91. He was a top opponent of the Vietnam War, though wonks may be more familiar with him for leading the overhaul of the nation's copyright laws in the 1970s. Kastenmeier's career came to an unexpected end when Republican Scott Klug (a well-known former TV news anchor) defeated him in this blue district in the 1990 election without a hint of scandal, mostly just based on "time for a change" arguments.
• Demographics: You've probably seen Gallup's polling of what percentage of each state's population is gay or lesbian; now they've drilled a little deeper to look at the self-identified LGBT population of the nation's major metropolitan areas. (This is a topic that the Census Bureau doesn't address directly, though you can kind of piece that together by looking at their data on households headed by same-sex couples.) Perhaps unsurprisingly, the San Francisco metro area leads the way at 6.2 percent LGBT, followed by Portland, Austin, New Orleans, and Seattle. Birmingham, Alabama is lowest at 2.6 percent, followed by Pittsburgh, Memphis, San Jose, and Raleigh.
Perhaps the data point that got the most attention, though, is that Salt Lake City clocks in at seventh, ahead of places considered to be more cosmopolitan, like New York and Washington. The theory that the New York Times proposes is that while Salt Lake doesn't have a national profile, it's a regional draw, pulling in LGBT migrants from not just the rest of Utah but also other surrounding conservative states.
• Great Mentioner: Washington state Republicans think that Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee is vulnerable, and that 2016 could be the year that they break Team Blue's 32-year lock on this seat. The GOP doesn't have a candidate yet, but they have some interesting possibilities. We take a look at who Evergreen State Republicans might field against Inslee in our latest Daily Kos Great Mentioner installment.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.