Likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee Chris Koster
Next year, Missouri will host two big statewide contests, one for U.S. Senate and one for governor. The lineups look set on the Senate side, where Republican incumbent Roy Blunt is likely to face Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander in the general election. Kander entered the contest with the support of state and national Democrats, and he's not facing any serious opposition in the primary. The Show Me State leans Republican, and Blunt has managed to avoid any stumbles in his first term in office, so he starts out as the clear favorite. However, Kander is raising real money and he may be able to pull off an upset if 2016 turns into a good year for his party.
Things are much more uncertain in the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon. While Attorney General Chris Koster is on track to take the Democratic nomination without any trouble, the GOP primary is still taking shape and has been defined by tragedy. In late February, state Auditor Tom Schweich, a leading candidate for governor, committed suicide, shocking Missouri's political establishment. Some of Schweich's friends pointed a finger at state party chair John Hancock, whom Schweich had accused of starting an anti-Semitic whisper campaign against him.
Hancock is an ally of another candidate, former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, and her camp has also been linked to Citizens for Fairness, a group that ran attack ads against Schweich shortly before his death. That's generated a lot of bad blood between Hanaway and other Missouri Republicans: At Schweich's funeral, former Sen. John Danforth castigated the politics that had "gone so hideously wrong," saying Schweich's death was a "natural consequence" of negative campaigning. Hanaway's not without supporters of her own, though. Zillionaire businessman and conservative activist Rex Sinquefield has flooded her coffers with a cool $1 million and counting, ensuring Hanaway will have money to compete.
But she'll also have company. State Sen. Mike Parson was a close associate of Schweich's, and he was particularly angry about what happened. That prompted him to jump into the race in April, and he starts with $500,000 on hand. Parson isn't well-known statewide, but his base in rural southwestern Missouri could give him an edge if enough St. Louis-area candidates (a group that includes almost every other Republican) run against one another. Parson also serves as Senate majority whip, and his connections could help him. Former state Rep. Randy Asbury is also officially running, but he has almost no money and minimal name recognition.
But the GOP primary is likely to get even larger. Head below the fold for more.
Two metro St. Louis Republicans have formed exploratory committees, though they have yet to make their bids official. Businessman John Brunner ran for Senate in 2012, but lost a close GOP primary to the now-infamous Todd Akin. Brunner is wealthy and proved last time that he's willing to spend millions on his campaign. But Brunner ran into problems during his Senate race after his business background was closely scrutinized. In particular, it turned out that Brunner had a history of keeping his assets outside the U.S.—likely in order to avoid taxes—and he even admitted that he almost drove his family company into the ground. So much for being a job creator!
Former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens is also raising money ahead of his probably bid. Greitens runs a non-profit group dedicated to helping veterans, and he's won plenty of attention from the national media. Greitens, a former White House Fellow under George W. Bush, also is very well-connected and telegenic, and he can make things interesting. However, despite his time in D.C. with Bush, it seems that Greitens only joined the GOP relatively recently. As Eli Yokley of PoliticMo has reported, Greitens met with the DCCC in 2010 about a potential House run, though he ultimately passed. It's unclear when or why Greitens had a change of heart (perhaps he's even had more than one), and his opponents will almost certainly ask those questions.
Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder is also publicly considering another gubernatorial bid. Kinder's 2012 campaign ran into trouble when party elites grew concerned with his freewheeling tendencies, and he dropped out of the race after a series of unflattering details emerged about him, including a photograph of himself with a stripper who, in a later interview, accused Kinder of a years-long "obsession" with her.
But Kinder proved to be remarkably resilient, narrowly winning renomination as lieutenant governor against a well-funded opponent and defeating a credible Democratic candidate. Still, Kinder has not abandoned his old undisciplined style. He made news in February after he said that his $86,000 yearly salary was leading to "gradual impoverishment."
State Sen. Mike Kehoe is also reportedly thinking about running, though he's been quiet about his plans.
The crowded GOP primary gives Koster, the probable Democratic nominee, the chance to hoard his resources for November while his foes slug it out. But while Missouri still votes for Democrats at the state level, Team Blue can leave nothing for granted. Departing Gov. Nixon leaves behind a controversial legacy, with plenty of Democratic voters angry about his actions during the Ferguson protests. Koster also has faced scrutiny for taking contributions from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer before concluding a favorable settlement negotiation with them in his role as attorney general.
It's also not completely out of the realm of possibility that another Democrat will step forward to challenge Koster, who was a Republican until 2007, though there are no names on the horizon. But no matter what happens in the Senate and gubernatorial contests, we'll be watching closely at Daily Kos Elections.
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