West Virginia Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin
Leading Off:
• WV-03: Democrats finally lost this conservative southern West Virginia seat last year, with Republican Evan Jenkins unseating longtime Democratic incumbent Nick Rahall 55-45. Romney won this seat 65-33 and it's hard to see Team Blue recapturing this ancestrally Democratic seat anytime soon, but the party is reaching out to one of the few politicians who might have a shot here. Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, who is termed-out next year, confirms that he's been approached, and that he hasn't made "any final decisions on anything yet."
It's rare for someone to go from the governor's mansion to the House, but it's not unheard of. Mike Castle of Delaware and Bill Janklow of South Dakota successfully ran for their state's lone House seats as they were being termed-out. Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford also returned to Congress about two years after leaving Columbia, though few politicians are going to try emulating his career path. Still, it's often hard enough to convince former or soon-to-be-former governors to run for the Senate, where they're forced to go from being their state's top dog to becoming just one member of a 100-person chamber: Becoming a freshman House member is an even less appealing prospect.
Still, if the DCCC can land Tomblin, he'd be a good get. Tomblin carried the 3rd 54-42 during his 2012 re-election campaign, quite a bit better than his 50-46 statewide win. Tomblin will be 65 on Election Day, so he'd have some time to amass seniority if he sticks around. There are still several Democratic legislators in coal country so the DCCC has some backup options if Tomblin says no. But it won't be easy for anyone to beat the well-funded Jenkins, and there's little doubt that Tomblin would be the best candidate they can get.
Senate:
• UT-Sen: Just days after former Romney aide Alex Dunn began talking about challenging Republican Sen. Mike Lee for renomination, Dunn has ruled out a campaign. Lee's enemies in the GOP will probably continue to search for someone to face him, but it's unclear who else might be interested. While the tea partying Lee may be vulnerable if a well-funded opponent jumps in, he's been working hard to make nice with his former detractors, and there's little sign that GOP primary voters are actually want to dump him.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: As the May 19 GOP primary draws near, it's no surprise that the ads are really beginning to fly. Kentuckians for Growth, Opportunity and Prosperity has a new spot for state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, where they tout him as the only candidate who has successfully stood up to Obama. While there's no word of the size of the buy, the group has spent $620,000 in the last month.
Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner, who is the frontrunner according to some stale polling, also gets some air support. Citizens for a Sound Government goes after Comer, accusing him on voting to increase his own pension. The ad features a clip of Comer spending several seconds stammering when asked to explain his 2005 vote, before finally responding "that was a... clearly a bad vote." We also have a copy of a commercial for tea partying businessman Matt Bevin that was briefly pulled from YouTube, but I can't promise that it's worth the wait.
House:
• MD-07: Rep. Elijah Cummings has been exploring a Senate bid for a while, but until now we haven't heard much from his possible successors. However, Roll Call tells us that Howard County Councilman Calvin Ball is thinking about running for this safely blue seat if Cummings tries for a promotion.
Howard County only makes up about 22 percent of this seat, while half the population lives in Baltimore City, so Ball probably wouldn't start out with too much name recognition. But if Cummings leaves, there are no shortage of Democrats who could run here, so it's really impossible to handicap a hypothetical primary at this point.
• MD-08: Former Obama administration aide William Jawando recently formed a committee to run for this safely blue suburban Washington seat, and on Tuesday he announced that he's in. Jawando came close to winning a Democratic primary for state House last year and he sounds well-connected enough to raise the type of money he'll need to advertise in the expensive Washington media market. Jawando joins Del. Kumar Barve and state Sen. Jamie Raskin in the Democratic contest, but plenty of other candidates are contemplating campaigns here.
• WV-01: Republican Rep. David McKinney hasn't had much trouble winning re-election in this northern West Virginia seat, but one local Democrat looks ready to face him. Mike Manypenny, who served three terms in the state House before losing his seat 54-46 in last year's GOP wave, has opened a campaign account, though he hasn't announced that he's in yet. McKinley is mulling a bid for governor and Democrats would have a better shot at an open seat. Still, Romney won this seat 62-36, and Team Blue has taken a huge beating here downballot in recent cycles.
• WV-02: Pharmacy owner Ken Reed lost last year's open seat primary to Alex Mooney by a 36-22 margin, and he sounds ready to take another swing at the freshman Republican. Reed has begun fundraising, and says "[i]f we hit certain marks we're good to go." Reed self-funded much of his 2014 bid and out-spent Mooney in the final weeks of the contest, so he might have the resources to make an impact. Still, it's going to be incredibly tough for Reed to actually unseat Mooney, who has stayed out of trouble during his first few months in Congress. While Mooney's decision to carpetbag from Maryland almost cost him the general election, that issue probably won't have the same resonance now that he's the incumbent.
Other Races:
• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso briefs us on the outcome of the year's first special election for the 400-person New Hampshire House.
New Hampshire House, Rockingham 13: Republican Dennis Green won this seat, defeating Democrat Carol Croteau by a 60-40 margin. At 57-41 Romney, this is one of the most Republican state House districts in New Hampshire.
We already have another special scheduled in the Granite State for mid-May, and given how massive the state House is, we can probably expect a few more before the year ends.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: On Wednesday, former Illinois Democratic Gov. Dan Walker died at the age of 92. Walker served in the governor's mansion from 1973 to 1977, and in the Duluth Federal Prison Camp from 1987 to 1989.
Walker defeated then-Lt. Gov. and future Sen. Paul Simon in the 1972 Democratic primary, and unseated Republican incumbent Richard Ogilvie that November. But Walker's populist politics brought him into conflict with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, and the legislature blocked much of his agenda. Walker lost renomination in 1976 to a Daley-backed candidate, and his 1982 comeback bid also ended in the primary.
Unlike his successors George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich, it wasn't Walker's political dealings that landed him in prison. Federal regulators seized his savings loan association and accused him of "unsafe and unsound" practices. Walker pled guilty to fraud, misapplication, and perjury, and was sentenced to seven years in jail, though he served less than 18 months.
• Iowa: PPP tossed in some district-level job favorability questions for each of the Hawkeye State's four members of the House in their latest Iowa poll, the numbers are at least somewhat optimistic for Democrats. In the 1st District, GOP Rep. Rod Blum sits at a 31-31 rating, while in the 3rd, Rep. David Young, another freshman Republican, is under water at 24-35. The 1st is the bluer of the two seats, so in a way it's more heartening that the weaker GOPer is in the tougher seat. (Note, though, that the 3rd had the smallest sample, around 255.)
In the 4th District, meanwhile, polarizing Republican Rep. Steve King manages an even 41-41 rating, and in the 2nd, Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack earns the only positive score, 44-35. Forget about GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, though. He has a strong 53-32 job approval rating, making him the most popular politician in the state, and Democrats have barely discussed the idea of challenging him seriously.
• UK General: Our friends across the pond are holding parliamentary elections next week, and after a century of predictability, it looks like British politics are on the verge of some major changes. Whether you follow the UK closely or you're new to the country's political goings-on, you'll want to read community member David Beard's excellent new guide to the 2015 elections. He explains exactly how we've gotten to the present day, when small parties are set to influence the ultimate outcome in ways they haven't before. But the key question—whether Labour will be able to wrest power from the Conservatives—won't get resolved until May 7 (or likely later if a coalition with the smaller parties needs to be forged), so click on through for everything you need to know ahead of Election Day.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.