According to Munich Re,
a big insurance company that insures the regular insurance companies,
there is a trend of more property damage claims
in the last forty years,
in the area where I live,
in the middle of North America.
I live in Wichita, Kansas.
I have pictures to show you,
pictures of storm damage.
The storm was early Friday morning,
3rd of April,
2015.
The pictures are below the divider doodle.
Please look carefully at all 47 pictures.
http://www.kansas.com/...
Notice the hail damage at the car dealer at Newton, 20 miles north of Wichita.
Seems the hailstones must have been driven by 70 mph winds, to go through car windows like that.
Kansas has always had some storms like this,
but Munich Re tracks trends of more insurance claims in recent decades,
insurance claims to replace windows and roofs and siding.
Here is a link to the site of Munich Re:
http://www.munichre.com/...
A study conducted by Munich Re in collaboration with the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) was able to demonstrate an increase in severe thunderstorm situations and assigned normalised losses over the last forty years for the USA
Here is another link,
to an article published in October of 2012:
http://www.climatecentral.org/...
The study, which Munich Re described as being aimed partly at galvanizing action on global warming, discusses ties between global warming and thunderstorm-related losses, which peaked in 2011. That year there was $26 billion in insured property losses from thunderstorm-related hazards, such as hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. The study concludes that both urban sprawl and climate change are drivers of the increased thunderstorm costs.
So,
you see where I stand on climate change.
I stand in the middle of ground zero,
ground zero for the effects of climate change.
I'm certainly not a climate change denier.
And I do not dismiss
the polar bears starving,
the sea level rising,
taking away whole islands,
taking away rice paddies in Bangladesh,
I do not dismiss drought and heat waves.
But it seems to me,
in the spirit of truth,
correct information,
a reality-based community,
and stepping back and looking at the big picture,
I must point out,
there was no report of anyone killed
in this severe storm.
The power was out for nearly 24 hours
in my home,
in my whole neighborhood.
If you studied the pictures,
as I suggested,
you read that two men were injured,
at the EMS outpost.
Severe damage to the building;
folks stationed there at all times,
two men injured.
But no one was killed.
Climate change is truly scary,
since we don't know how fast a feedback loop will develop,
and we don't know how drastically the climate will change,
in any part of the world.
But for now,
it seems to me,
that we should ask ourselves,
which of the threats to humanity
will most likely kill millions of humans
in the foreseeable future:
Disease,
such as ebola or a flu pandemic?
Maybe.
Thermonuclear war?
Maybe.
(The way things are going,
we could get nuked by Israel!)
Or,
what about peak oil?
Peak oil means that most charts,
showing worldwide oil extraction volume predicted,
predicted into the next few decades,
shows that production reaching a peak,
sometime before the year 2050.
Maybe as early as 2035.
Here is a link to some such charts,
developed by your tax dollars,
the Energy Information Agency,
part of the Department of Energy:
http://www.eia.gov/...
In April 2000 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released results of the most thorough and methodologically modern assessment of world crude oil and natural gas resources ever attempted. This 5-year study was undertaken "to provide impartial, scientifically based, societally relevant petroleum resource information essential to the economic and strategic security of the United States." It was conducted by 40 geoscientists (many with industry backgrounds) and was reviewed stage-by-stage by geoscientists employed by many petroleum industry firms including several of the multinational majors.
Sounds like a carefully done study.
The prediction of the peak:
Thus, if the USGS mean resource estimate proves to be correct, if 2 percent production growth continues until peak production is reached, and if production then declines at an R/P ratio of 10, world conventional crude oil production would be expected to peak in 2037 at a volume of 53.2 billion barrels per year.
Please study the charts at the link.
Study them carefully.
Those charts show,
that when the world reaches the downside of that peak,
the drop is rather steep.
Their conclusion:
In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired crude is unlikely to be "right around the corner" as so many other estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning. Given the long lead times required for significant mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, this result in no way justifies complacency about both supply-side and demand-side research and development.
Not enough oil,
means not enough diesel fuel for America's farmers.
Which means not enough food in America's grocery stores.
Which means widespread famine,
here in America,
and in cities around the world;
anywhere that folks depend on food produced by
diesel powered farm equipment,
and shipped in to the cities.
I've been writing about this topic a lot.
See my sig line.
I'm joining the prepper movement,
even though most preppers seem like rednecks,
and I'm not a redneck,
but I want to be a part of something
that has the potential
to save millions of lives.
I hope to start making YouTube videos
and that way,
I can reach even more people,
and together,
we can save more millions of lives.
My theme is,
Smarter Prepping With Big Jack.
That's why I set up my blog here at Daily Kos with that name.
And my videos will all have that name.
Come join us!
You can start prepper blogs yourselves,
any of you so inclined.
We can save millions of lives together.
We can post gardening videos,
and cooking videos,
and canning and preserving videos,
videos on care and feeding of
chickens,
ducks,
geese,
goats,
etc.!
Come join us.
You have nothing to lose,
and millions of lives may be saved.
Thanks for reading.