Messrs. Sturgeon, Miliband, Cameron, Clegg, Lannister, and Lannister
Two important things are currently going on, for fans of complex, impenetrable stories about people with impressively highbrow-sounding accents forming ever-shifting coalitions in order to try to gain control of an isolated island with bad weather. One is season 5 of
Game of Thrones on HBO. The other is the United Kingdom
parliamentary election, the first since 2010, to be held on May 7.
While there are plenty of wikis and fan sites devoted to Game of Thrones, I haven't seen anyone trying to apply FiveThirtyEight-style quantitative analysis to the question of who holds the Iron Throne. On the other hand, there are numerous sites devoted to predicting who holds No. 10 Downing Street. Polls currently show the Conservatives nearly neck-and-neck with Labour, who are poised for a comeback after the UK's economic recovery lagged the US's, thanks in part to the Conservatives' austerity agenda.
It's not a simple case of which party gets the most votes nationwide, though; there are 650 different constituencies in the House of Commons, and a first-past-the-post election in each one. Complicating matters greatly is that third (and fourth and fifth) parties play a much larger role in the UK. This means that not only are individual seats much more difficult to predict than in American congressional elections (because, in a left-leaning constituency, multiple left-of-center parties might split the vote in a way that lets the Conservatives win), but also that no party is likely to control a true majority of seats and that power must be held through a coalition.
For instance, the Conservatives (who, confusingly, you'll often see referred to as the Tories) won only 306 seats in the last election, and hold power today only because of a coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats. However, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are expected to lose seats next week. Good news for Labour, right? Not quite: Labour is likely to pick up a number of seats from the Conservatives, but also lose a number of seats in their previous stronghold of Scotland to the Scottish National Party. While the SNP is perhaps even further to the left than Labour, they're focused on Scottish autonomy and not necessarily disposed to form a full coalition with Labour. One of the likeliest outcomes might be no coalition at all, but a Labour/SNP informal relationship that limps along until another election will be held.
The element of chaos that third parties bring to the mix (even greater this year, with the rising impact of the Greens on the left and the UK Independence Party on the right), is an enjoyable part of following UK politics. But another enjoyable aspect is simply the constituencies themselves: there are no boring, American-style numeric designations like CO-06 or FL-18 here. Instead, they have pleasing, evocative names, many of which sound like they're straight out of the mists of medieval times ... or from fantasy literature, like Game of Thrones itself. With that in mind, we thought a fun quiz mixing the two would be a good way to delve deeper into both. So, for each location below, which is it? A UK parliament constituency, or a location from Game of Thrones?
1. Amber Valley
2. Barrowlands
3. Beaconsfield
4. Casterly Rock
5. Castle Point
6. Eddisbury
7. Great Grimsby
8. Hazel Grove
9. Highgarden
10. King's Landing
11. Maidstone and the Weald
12. Mole Valley
13. Pyke
14. Riverrun
15. The Eyrie
16. The Wrekin
17. Vale of Glamorgan
18. White Harbor
19. Wolfswood
20. Wyre Forest
Head over the fold for the answers!
1.
Amber Valley
Amber Valley is a marginal constituency (what we'd call a "swing district" here in the States) in Derbyshire. Currently held by the Conservatives, Electoral Calculus gives it better-than-even odds of switching to Labour this year.
Sigil for House Dustin
2.
Barrowlands
The Barrowlands are the hilly plains of the North, immediately south of Winterfell. Barrowton, the main town in the area, is the seat of the minor House Dustin.
Flag of Buckinghamshire: "No Stepping Back"
3.
Beaconsfield
Beaconsfield is a constituency in Buckinghamshire, the affluent exurbs north of London. This is some of the most devotedly Conservative turf in the UK.
Sigil for House Lannister: "Hear Me Roar"
4.
Casterly Rock
Casterly Rock is a fortress atop a rock by the Sunset Sea. It is the traditional seat of conniving House Lannister.
Flag of Essex
5.
Castle Point
Castle Point is a constituency in Essex, in the suburbs to the east of London. It has usually been held by Conservatives, and will probably continue to do so, though this is the type of area where the UKIP has been growing the strongest.
Flag of Cheshire: "By the right and dignity of the sword"
6.
Eddisbury
Eddisbury is a constituency in Cheshire. It's in the North, where Labour tends to be stronger in general, but Eddisbury is a rural agricultural area and so is pretty reliably Conservative.
Flag of Lincolnshire: "Perseverance conquers"
7.
Great Grimsby
Great Grimsby is a constituency in Lincolnshire in the North, where the River Humber empties into the North Sea, mostly coterminous with the large fishing port of Grimsby. Labour tends to be stronger in the North than the South (except for in the poorer parts of London, where it's strong), and in cities rather than rural areas, so it makes sense that this constituency has been in Labour's hands since 1945. However, in some working-class areas with anti-immigrant sentiment, like this one, the UKIP seems to be coming on strong (the choices here are basically the left populism of Labour and the right populism of the UKIP, not the center-left elitism of the Lib Dems or the center-right elitism of the Tories). So, if anyone were to gain this seat, it'd be them and not the Conservatives.
Coat of arms of Greater Manchester: "Ever Vigilant"
8.
Hazel Grove
Hazel Grove is a constituency within the boundaries of Greater Manchester, though it's on the city's suburban fringe. It's also a fairly rare beast: a constituency that's not only held by the Liberal Democrats (likely to be partly abandoned by their center-left base in 2015 over forming a coalition with the Tories in 2010) but also predicted to remain in their hands in 2015. If anyone else picks up this constituency, it's likely to be the Conservatives, not Labour, at least according to Electoral Calculus.
Sigil of House Tyrell: "Growing Strong"
9.
Highgarden
Highgarden is the regional center for the Reach. It's the seat for the wealthy House Tyrell.
Sigil of House Baratheon: "Ours is the Fury"
10.
King's Landing
This is a bit of a gimmee: King's Landing is the capital of the Seven Kingdoms, and site of the Iron Throne. Initially, it's held by Robert Baratheon of the House Baratheon.
Flag of Kent: "Unconquered"
11.
Maidstone and the Weald
Maidstone and the Weald is a constituency in Kent, in the Southeast. Like most places that are within commuting distance of London, it's reliably Conservative, with the Lib Dems and not Labour in distant second place.
Coat of arms of Surrey
12.
Mole Valley
Mole Valley is a constituency in Surrey, the suburbs to the south of London. Electoral Calculus assigns a 100 percent likelihood to Mole Valley staying in the Conservative column. (Sensing a pattern here? Many of the most pleasantly named, pastoral-sounding constituencies are in rural or suburban areas, which are much likelier to be Conservative. Labour's strength is in the cities.)
Sigil of House Greyjoy: "We Do Not Sow"
13.
Pyke
Pyke is located on the forbidding Iron Islands, off the west coast of Westeros. It is the seat of the seagoing House Greyjoy.
Sigil of House Tully: "Family, Duty, Honor"
14.
Riverrun
Riverrun, located near the center of Westeros, starts as the seat of the House Tully.
Sigil of House Arryn: "As High As Honor"
15.
The Eyrie
The Eyrie is located in the Mountains of the Moon, above the Vale. It is the seat of the House Arryn.
Flag of Shropshire: "Let Salop Flourish"
16.
The Wrekin
The Wrekin is a rural constituency in Shropshire, in the North. It's been Labour in the past, as recently as 2005, but at this point, per Electoral Calculus, looks pretty likely to stay in the Conservatives' column.
Coat of arms of Glamorgan: "He that endureth, overcometh"
17.
Vale of Glamorgan
The Vale of Glamorgan is the only constituency on this list that's in Wales. Also, it's one of the few constituencies in Wales that's currently held by the Conservatives; most of Wales is dominated by either Labour or, in a few places, Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party. This is considered a "bellwether" constituency that usually goes with the nationwide winner, and it's predicted to be very close between the Conservatives and Labour in 2015.
Sigil of House Manderly
18.
White Harbor
White Harbor is the largest town and port in the North of Westeros. It is the seat of the House Manderly, who are vassals to House Stark.
Sigil of House Stark: "Winter is Coming"
19.
Wolfswood
Wolfswood is the primeval forest north of Winterfell, seat of House of Stark. You would pass through it on the way to the Wall.
Flag of Worcestershire
20.
Wyre Forest
Wyre Forest is a constituency in Worcestershire, in the West Midlands. This is an unusual constituency, in that it may be the one that's likeliest to elect a member of a truly minor party: the National Health Action Party, a small single-issue party mostly fighting against the privatization of the National Health Service. Their candidate here represented the constituency as an independent for most of the 2000s before losing to a Conservative in 2010. If elected, he would presumably join a Labour coalition; Electoral Calculus, however, sees the likeliest outcome as a Conservative hold.
