The administration has sent
dire warnings about NSA having to shut down its dragnet surveillance system of phone metadata which will expire in 10 days unless Congress acts.
"After May 22, 2015, the National Security Agency will need to begin taking steps to wind down the bulk-telephone-metadata program in anticipation of a possible sunset in order to ensure that it does not engage in any unauthorized collection or use of the metadata," the memo states.
Never mind that the Second Circuit Court of Appeals
has ruled that the ongoing collection of metadata
is currently unauthorized, operating illegally and
subject to a constitutional challenge. Without a change in the law, the court will in all likelihood shut the program down. So that takes us to the Senate, where Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has
set up Saturday cloture votes on the program. One vote is on the USA Freedom Act as passed overwhelmingly in the House. The other is on McConnell's preferred choice, a two-month extension of the program as is.
It's not clear that either bill actually has 60 votes to pass cloture. It's also not clear what happens if they do pass cloture, extending debate into next week and Memorial Day. In the case of a short extension, the House has made it pretty clear that it will reject it, and at any rate is scheduled to leave for recess on Thursday. Additionally, House leadership has committed to not trying to pass a short-term extension by voice vote or unanimous consent while the House is in pro forma sessions during recess.
So at this point, the only way the program will continue would be for the Senate to accept the USA Freedom Act without amendments. Sen. Rand Paul's not-really-a-filibuster filibuster Wednesday raises the question of whether that's a possibility. The likeliest outcome at this point is that these programs sunset, at least for a while, until the Congress comes back next month and McConnell restarts the fight between straight reauthorization and reform.
