Right now, state Rep. John Bel Edwards is the only notable Democratic running in the Oct. 24 jungle primary, but that may be about to change. Tony Clayton, an attorney who is well-known in the Baton Rouge-area for prosecuting serial killer Derrick Todd Lee, tells LaPolitics Weekly that he's interested in joining the contest. Like Edwards, Clayton is a self-described conservative Democrat. However, while Edwards is white, Clayton is black, and he could have an easier time appealing to African American voters if he gets in (Clayton also used to chair the board of supervisors for the historically black Southern University system).
Neither Edwards or Clayton would have a great shot prevailing in November in this increasingly red state, but a Clayton campaign could have a major effect on the race. Polls consistently show Republican Sen. David Vitter and Edwards taking the top-two spots in the jungle primary and advancing to the Nov. 21 runoff, with fellow Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne a bit further behind (and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle stuck in the single digits). As long as Edwards has the Democratic field to himself, it's going to be tough for Dardenne or Angelle to secure enough support to sneak into the runoff.
But if Clayton splits the blue side, it could give either of them a much better shot to advance. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore is also thinking about running as a left-leaning independent, and he could further help the non-Vitter Republicans by splitting the Democratic vote. While Vitter would be heavily favored in a runoff with a Democrat, Dardenne or Angelle could make things much more competitive. The filing deadline isn't until Sept. 10, so it could be a while before things fully develop here.
