Are you ready for hurricane season? Monday is June 1 (how'd that happen?) and the start of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. It's only May and we've already seen one tropical storm--
Ana made landfall in South Carolina as a relatively weak, struggling system, thankfully--but that's just the beginning of what forecasters widely expect to be a slower-than-normal year.
Based on a strengthening El Niño in the eastern Pacific, along with a couple of other factors, just about everyone who issues seasonal hurricane forecasts is expecting a below-average season. Over the past 30 years, the average Atlantic hurricane season sees 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major (category three or higher) hurricanes.
NOAA released its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, calling for 6-11 named storms and a couple of hurricanes. These aren't specific forecasts, of course--you're in a precarious spot if you try to forecast a tropical system more than a week out--but based on overall trends.
El Niño is able to disrupt the Atlantic hurricane season because it alters the jet stream and fosters robust thunderstorm activity around the eastern Pacific; the winds from both flowing over the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic, shredding storms before they have a chance to form.
Even though it's expected to be a below-average hurricane season, it doesn't mean you can shrug it off. Quiet years have a nasty habit of sneaking up on you. In my write-up of this year's seasonal hurricane outlooks over on The Vane, I used the 1992 hurricane season as an important example of quiet years posing a deadly threat. The Atlantic Ocean went almost the entire summer without seeing one named storm. When one finally did form, it crashed into southern Florida as a category five.
Whether you live right on the coast or a hundred miles inland, from Brownsville, Texas, to the northeastern coast of Maine and beyond, make sure you're prepared for the threat of even a weak tropical system making landfall near your location. Think about what you would do if your home floods, wind blows the roof off, a tree falls through your living room, or your vehicle is damaged beyond use. If the power goes out, how will you eat? What will you drink? Do you have cash to use when credit card systems go down? Do you have enough prescription medicine to survive after having survived?
President Obama hit it right on the nose yesterday when he said that NOAA and FEMA are among the handful of agencies that do obvious good for the country in times of need. FEMA goes all-out when it comes to preparedness, and their website--ready.gov--is an excellent tool to help you prepare for what to do before, during, and after not only hurricanes, but any disaster.
Other than physical preparation, keeping up with forecasts is your first line of defense. Check in with the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) and the National Weather Service (weather.gov) at least once a day to keep up-to-date on hazards in and around your area.
With a little preparedness and some solid foresight, you can get through another hurricane season, because it only takes one to turn into your own personal disaster.
Sidenote! It's been a long time since I've written in orange. Hi! I write for
The Vane these days, which is Gawker's awesome weather blog. You should read it. (Please.) You can also find me on Twitter
@wxdam and on
Facebook.
