I was a dues-paying member of a union at the age of 15. It was the RCIU at Kroger's in Illinois. When I turned 16, the boys were gonna throw me a party. Word must've gotten around because the store manager pulled me aside and asked me if I was 16 years old. I told him that I was. He said to "keep it to yourself" and "you're really tall for your age." Later that night the boys took me out to the bars to celebrate my birthday. I've been pro-union since I was 15 and able to make $6.35 per hour back in 1976 to help my Mother and Grandparents out with food and other expenses. Both of my Brothers-in-law are union guys. My Nephew wants to be a union organizer.
I buy American whenever possible and have boycotted Hostess and Koch Industries and other anti-union businesses. I don't know that the arguments made by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and various union representatives about the TPP are wrong, I just think that they aren't right. On the other hand, I believe they are right 98% of the time.
Marcia, Marcia, Marcia. Jan Brady blamed everything on her sister, Marcia. It was always Marcia's fault. Marcia had a groovy date while Jan had none--that was Marcia's fault. Jan had a pimple, and that was Marcia's fault. Marcia got a lot of attention, while Jan was ignored, and that, of course, was Marcia's fault. The same can be said for NAFTA. American jobs moved to China, and it is somehow NAFTA's fault, even though NAFTA is a trade deal that involves Canada and Mexico. How do you explain all the jobs that went to India? NAFTA. Vietnam? NAFTA. Malaysia? NAFTA. Korea? NAFTA, NAFTA, NAFTA! The thing is, those countries didn't sign NAFTA.
Placing the Blame Where the Blame Belongs. Greedy CEOs signed the intra-office memos that shipped jobs overseas. These are the guys who went to conferences specifically to learn how to fuck American workers, and they sent their in-house tax attorneys to seminars for the same purpose. Republicans in Congress built a Tax Code that incentivizes manufacturing overseas--allowing companies to deduct moving expenses and stash dollars offshore without paying taxes on them. Blame goes to the greedy CEOs and to all the Republican lawmakers and lobbyists who put those incentives into the tax code. If anything, we are doing some very heavy lifting for Republicans, who must enjoy the fact that we point fingers at each other while they continue to evade blame for (a) moving jobs offshore, and (b) maintaining a Tax Code that incentivizes it.
Lots of Good Manufacturing Left for Mexico. This is true. Unions and union folks got fucked. On the other hand, NAFTA really boosted American agriculture and severely harmed Mexican agriculture. In balance, however, the heavy and light manufacturing jobs are much more important than the low-paying agriculture jobs, many of which have been replaced with machinery. There are significant differences, however, between NAFTA and TPP. First, the Production Cost Curve (see below) is bending in our favor now. There is less incentive to move jobs overseas if the only advantage is going to be supposed savings from wages. Secondly, there is no road system between the United States and, for example, Japan. Those are significant differences, and they will be important.
TPP as litmus test for Democrats? I've seen this comment a number of times on daily kos, and it reminds me of a litmus test that I'd like to see: To get a TV show about hunting Bigfoots or making a dozen or more babies, you should first have to prove that you have seen a Bigfoot or can lawfully and ethically care for children. I doubt the people who have written comments on daily kos like this have read the TPP. In my mind, the litmus test for Democrats should be whether they will take the time to read the agreement, understand it, make a reasoned judgment based on the actual terms of the deal and always place the blame for the loss of past manufacturing jobs where it squarely belongs: Greedy CEOs and Republican Congressmen and Republican Lobbyists.
History of Trade Agreements If there hadn't been trade and trade agreements, we wouldn't have our number or letter system. We would all likely still be Norwegians, English, Polish, Germans, Vietnamese, Dutch, Gambians, Egyptians, Spanish, Japanese or Portuguese and not Americans. Trade and trade agreements have been necessary since we started harvesting food instead of simply hunting and gathering it. I suggest that basing your opinion about trade and trade deals on one thirty-year window of a trade history that spans more than five thousand years is like basing your views about radio on the Rush Limbaugh show.
Arbitration is the Death of Democracy? Decades ago, arbitration and mediation changed trial law forever. Most jurisdictions now require that you arbitrate or mediate at least some kinds of disputes before taking them to trial. Instead of calling it arbitration--which doesn't scare many people--those against the deal they haven't read have used unfamiliar--and therefore scary acronyms--like ISDS. I've looked at some of the old WTO trade disputes, and there are quite a few decisions that are decades old that apparently may never be resolved, even though a final decision has been rendered against a country. Does anyone really believe that the Sinura Corporation of Vietnam will be able to force the United States to eliminate Climate Change goals? Moreover, even if a decision is rendered against America, it can do something else to make it up to the foreign country--there's no requirement that it change its laws--such as lowering custom inspection fees on shipments of other goods, or something else. This bogeyman of foreign corporations dictating the laws and the policies of the United States doesn't make sense, and it is not what has happened in the past.
Secret negotiations are the Death of Democracy? I've recently been neck-deep in a bunch of FOIA requests involving over twenty states, and every state has, as exempt from FOIA requests, any contract that is being negotiated. Those negotiations are always secret. The settlement process for every criminal and civil matter in this country is a secret negotiation process. Can you think of any reasons why the TPP is negotiated in secret? Here's an experiment: Go to your next city council meeting that has personnel or contract items listed on the agenda and watch what happens. Report back.
The Production Cost Curve. In the 1990s and 2000s, it was remarkably cheaper to make goods in foreign countries, including Korea and China and Malaysia and &tc. Now, it is cheaper to make goods in the United States. Why? Mainly because of energy:
"In a 2011 study by the industry-supported Manufacturing Institute, researchers calculated that the 'raw cost' of American manufacturing—including wages, raw materials, and capital costs, but excluding taxes, regulatory compliance, and other “structural costs”—is now 9 percent lower than the average raw cost of production among America’s nine largest trading partners (including China, but also high-cost places like Canada). In 2003, by comparison, American raw production costs were 20 percent higher than the average among our trading partners."
Sure wage scales have gone up a little in those countries, but the real cost to the bottom line is energy. That's the energy it takes to ship goods half-way across the globe. It is also the energy it takes to keep a giant plant working full-time for 365 days. The cost of providing energy in the United States is so low compared to other countries that, in tandem with the cost to ship goods and other miscellaneous costs, it is now cheaper to make things here. I believe that is why we are starting to see jobs re-shoring to America.
Keeping One Step Ahead of China. We have a chance to out-maneuver China in trade in the region. Shouldn't we make the most of that opportunity? There is some historic animosity between China and some of the prospective TPP partners. That may have kept them from negotiating a deal with China, or it may have kept them from negotiating a deal with China for a little while.
Affecting Climate Change and Workers' Rights. There are few ways the United States can affect Climate Change and Workers' Rights in these countries. This is one of the ways. I will be very interested in reviewing those provisions in the TPP and judging their enforceability.
Who Do You Trust? I'm going to trust the gentleman who negotiated the latest START Treaty with Russia, the Iranian Nuclear deal, who finagled chemical weapons out of Syria when everyone said it was a no-win situation, who negotiated with Congress to save the Auto Industry and stave off nation-wide bread lines, who negotiated with himself to enter the high-paying and glamorous world of community organizing after being Editor-in-Chief of the Harvard Law Review, who negotiated with reluctant Members of Congress for ObamaCare over anonymous internet posters who won't tell me how millions of jobs ended up in China, India, Vietnam and Korea and who won't place the blame for most of the job losses squarely where it belongs--the CEOs, Lobbyists and Republicans in Congress. At least until I see the agreement....