Republican Rep. Pete King (right) with now ex-Rep. Mike Grimm
:
• NY-02: For reals? Pete King said this?
"I don't know what this is about. Apparently this person came and threatened to disclose something on Denny Hastert that goes back over 35 years, that happened 35 years ago, and he was taking money out illegally to pay the person. The only victim here is Denny Hastert."
What on earth is his percentage here? Why would a Republican congressman like King think it's to his advantage to defend Denny Hastert? Community member Bart Ender put it so well,
we're just going to quote him:
Between Hastert and Duggar, why do so many Republicans feel they will benefit politically by claiming that the alleged perpetrators of horrific actions are the victims, rather than the alleged victims being the victims, especially since the claims of King here and the Duggar defenders aren't based on the allegations being false?
Who are the voters who aren't voting Republican today who will vote Republican in the future because of the defense of Republicans of other Republicans accused of sexual abuse?
Indeed. King faces his first serious Democratic challenger in many years, in the form of Suffolk County Legislator DuWayne Gregory, so perhaps he's gotten rusty. He should have just stopped talking after admitting he didn't know what any of this is about.
Senate:
• IL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Robin Kelly, who had been publicly considering a Senate bid since January, finally announced on Friday that she would not run after all. Kelly would have faced a tough time in the primary against fellow Rep. Tammy Duckworth, who's been running for months and has used her time to lock up a wide swath of establishment support and raise a bunch of cash.
Further complicating matters for Kelly was the presence of Chicago Urban League President Andrea Zopp, whose own chances at winning the nomination are not great but who would have competed for the same pool of African-American voters in the Chicago area. Some other lesser figures, like state Sen. Napoleon Harris, still haven't ruled out bids of their own, but regardless, Duckworth remains the odds-on favorite to challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk next year.
• MD-Sen, 07: One of the major questions looming over this open-seat contest is whether or not Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings will jump in. Cummings released a poll in mid-April giving him a narrow primary lead over announced candidates and fellow Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen, but the Baltimore Sun's John Fritze reports that the congressman has done nothing else to prepare for a statewide bid.
However, people close to Cummings say he's still deciding, and unlike most other prospective foes, he can probably afford to wait a while. Cummings has a strong base of support in Baltimore, and he earned widespread praise for his high-profile role during and after the recent riots. Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger and John Sarbanes also hail from the Baltimore area (Edwards and Van Hollen are from metro D.C.) and they appear to be ready to defer to Cummings, though he could hurt their Senate prospects if he waits too long before declining to run.
If Cummings seeks the Senate seat, we should expect a crowded primary battle in his safely-blue district. Howard County Councilman Calvin Ball has already expressed interest in running to succeed Cummings, and state Sen. Lisa Gladden and Del. Talmadge Branch also say they might go for it.
Gubernatorial:
• VT-Gov: Vermont Republicans are pushing Lt. Gov. Phil Scott to run for this open seat, and Scott is considering it. But if Scott sits this out, Burlington Electric Department Manager Neale Lunderville, who used to serve as an aide in Jim Douglas' administration, confirms that he'd consider running. Lunderville has earned plenty of attention for his work on sustainable energy, which could help him win over voters in this heavily Democratic state.
House:
• FL-18: Did you know that running in the FL-18 Republican primary help you lose up to 30 pounds, add seven years to your life, and earn you a mention on Daily Kos Elections? Well, it must be true, since so many people are considering it! Keiser University Vice Chancellor Belinda Keiser (go eagles!) says she's "strongly considering" running in this open 52-48 Romney seat.
So who are the hordes of Republicans running or considering campaigns here? Here's a quick roundup of the notable names, starting with the people who are actually in:
• Ex-state Rep. and 2014 nominee Carl Domino
• Attorney and former congressional aide Rick Kozell
• Afghan War veteran and former Department of Homeland Security explosives specialist Brian Mast
• St. Lucie County Commissioner Tod Mowery
• Martin County School Board Member Rebecca Negron
And here are the people who are believed to be considering, with any information about their intentions:
• Former Secret Service Agent and 2014 MD-06 nominee Dan Bongino: Publicly considering
• Former congressional aide Bill Castle: Meeting with consultants
• State Rep. Gayle Harrell: Publicly considering, but has been quiet since March
• Keiser University Vice Chancellor Belinda Keiser: Publicly considering
• Martin County Sheriff's Department official Stephen Leighton: Publicly considering
• Pundit Noelle Nikpour: Publicly considering, moving from Arkansas to Florida
• Martin County Commissioner Doug Smith: Publicly considering, but has been quiet since March
• Anti-rail activist K.C. Ingram Traylor: Publicly considering
• Businessman Gary Uber: Publicly considering, but has been quiet since March
Things are a bit more stable on the Democratic side, where Palm Beach County Commissioners Melissa McKinlay and Priscilla Taylor are facing off. But St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky and state Sen. Joe Abruzzo have yet to rule anything out, and lawyer Jonathan Chane may also be interested.
• IA-01: It's been clear for a while that the NRCC is in no hurry to come to the aid of freshman Rod Blum. Still, it's pretty notable that Blum himself acknowledged the friction with national Republicans, telling Roll Call that his vote against making John Boehner speaker has "been a problem as far as the NRCC goes." The NRCC has notably refused to include Blum on their Patriot program, which is aimed at helping vulnerable Republicans, even though he only narrowly took a 56-43 Obama seat. Blum is wealthy, so he's not completely helpless if the national GOP ignores him, but it's very clear that the NRCC has decided to spend their money on more loyal members who have a better chance at winning.
• NY-19: Ulster County Executive Mike Hein has been mentioned as a Democratic candidate ever since Republican Rep. Chris Gibson announced his retirement in January, but he'd never publicly commented until now. Well, Hein has spoken, and we don't know much more about his 2016 plans. Hein only said that his "focus is on running for county executive" this year, adding, "I love my job and serving the people of Ulster County." Of course that's not a no, and Hein may just be waiting until he's re-elected before making a decision. Obama carried this swing seat 52-46 but so far, no credible candidates from either party are running.
Other Races:
• CO State Senate: The GOP holds a slim 18-17 majority in the state Senate, and neither party has any real doubt which seat will decide control of the chamber next year. In 2014, Republican Laura Woods unseated appointed Democratic incumbent Rachel Zenzinger by 663 votes in suburban Denver's SD-19, a seat Obama won 52-45. Woods was elected to complete the rest of Democratic state Sen. Evie Hudak's term (Hudak resigned to avoid a recall election that aimed to flip this seat early) so she'll be up again in 2016, and Zenzinger says she's "seriously considering" a rematch.
Neither party has any real room for error here. After Woods' seat, the bluest Republican-held district up in 2016 is SD-08, which went for Romney 50-47. By contrast, the reddest Democratic-held seat is SD-26, which went for Obama 53-44. In other words, Woods is the only member of the Senate up for re-election who sits in a district won by the opposite party's presidential candidate, which is why SD-19 will be ground zero next year. Democrats hold the state House and the governor's mansion, and a Woods-Zenzinger duel is likely to decide if Team Blue will get full control over the state government back for the final two years of Gov. John Hickenlooper's term.
• San Antonio Mayor: On Saturday, interim Mayor Ivy Taylor scored a narrow 52-48 victory over fellow Democrat ex-state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte in the mayoral runoff, earning a full two-year term.
Taylor's win ends an unpredictable and nasty campaign. After pledging not to run for a full term, Taylor was appointed by the city council to succeed Julián Castro, who had resigned to become secretary of Housing and Urban Development. State Rep. Mike Villarreal spent months without any credible challenger, but that all changed when Van de Putte jumped in the race in November. Van de Putte, who had just served as the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, brought plenty of name-recognition and money to the table, and she looked like the candidate to beat.
Taylor changed course in February and entered the contest. While she started off needing to play catch up with Villarreal and Van de Putte, she had one key advantage: Taylor's opposition to a non-discrimination ordinance aimed at protecting LGBTQ residents and her work killing a planned streetcar project gave her an opening with Republican voters, who vote in disproportionate numbers in off-year elections. While Van de Putte took first with 30 percent in the non-partisan primary, Taylor's conservative base allowed her to beat Villarreal for the second place spot 28-26. Villarreal ultimately decided not to endorse either of his former foes, which may have made all the difference on Saturday.
The Taylor-Van de Putte duel quickly got ugly. Van de Putte knew that Taylor's conservative base on the North Side was likely to show up for the runoff, and she tried to keep them at home by portraying the incumbent as soft on crime. But it wasn't enough, and Taylor's base turned out in early voting. Van de Putte didn't get the strong Election Day turnout she needed, and she narrowly lost despite her clear financial edge.
Grab Bag:
• Redistricting: It's no secret that gerrymandering has given the GOP a massive firewall when it comes to defending their House majority. Even in 2012, when Democratic House candidates won more votes than Republicans, Team Blue came nowhere close to flipping the chamber. In a new piece, Stephen Wolf creates non-partisan maps in the West that would better reflect the will of voters while keeping communities intact.
• Votes: The Washington Post's Philip Bump has compiled some preliminary data on the 114th Congress showing which members vote against their party the most frequently. The lists won't surprise you in either chambers: It's mostly members who represent states or districts won by the opposite party's presidential candidate, plus libertarian troublemakers on the GOP side (like Rand Paul and Justin Amash) and just general d-bags on the Democratic side (like Dan Lipinski and Jim Costa).
One notable facet is just how unified both parties are—and that Democrats are even more unified than Republicans. The tenth-most wayward Democratic senator is Jon Tester, who represents red Montana, but even he only dissents around 7 percent of the time. The GOP bro who occupies the same spot is Lindsey Graham, who bucks his party 12 percent of the time. A similar phenomenon is true in the House as well. Yes, it's easier to stick together in the minority, but so much for "Dems in Disarray."
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.
