I realize that this is a political blog-site, not a technological one, but Autonomous Vehicles (AV) are coming, and they will be wonderful for ecology, human safety, energy independence, and people. Truly self-driving cars, or AVs, are probably less than 15 years away - some pundits claims they're only 10 years away. AVs are expected to save a large number of lives each year. Out of the 1.2 million people killed every year in car accidents, probably 90% or over 1 million people, would live who otherwise would die. Similarly, a huge number of people who would live through automobile accidents but be permanently injured, will live better lives. Somewhere around eight times more AVs could fit on the roads, saving land and parking lots. We spend 25 percent of all of our energy on personal transportation, a lot of that on cars. AVs would largely obviate the need to own a car, saving everyone who currently needs a car huge amounts of money. There are so many benefits that its hard to list them all.
These are all wonderful things that will enrich our society and make life better for everyone. However, just as every cloud has a silver lining, so every bag of gold casts a shadow. It's a small shadow, but it's there nonetheless. A large number of people earn their living driving cars and trucks. Transportation jobs employed almost 20 million people in 2002, or 16 percent of all workers. Now, if only 20% of those jobs can be replaced by AVs, because they involve other work as well, like unloading their trucks in the case of truck-drivers, or supervising children in the case of school bus drivers, that still means a permanent increase in unemployment of around 3%. So if unemployment normally runs 5% in good times, it will now run 8% in good times. Also don't forget that there are a number of ways for employers to get around paying people. For instance, rather than paying someone to drive your truck cross-country, at a fairly high wage for days at a time, you can just pay someone the minimum wage to meet a truck at its destination and unload it (until robots can do that too anyway).
I am posting this article, not to be a Luddite - I love technology - but so that everyone will begin to consider the future that is heading straight for us, its a robotic future, and it's coming very soon.