Steve Holt!
Leading Off:
• NH-01: It hasn't been a fun week for Republican Rep. Frank Guinta. The congressman was fined by the FEC last month over a still-unexplained six-figure loan to his campaign, and high profile Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte have been calling for his resignation. Things seemed to settle down after the New Hampshire Republican Party declined to call for his departure, but the story got a second life on Tuesday when the FEC released documents that revealed even Guinta's mother and sister didn't buy his explanation that the loan came from some kind of "family pot." By Thursday, even the state GOP had had enough and cast Guinta to the direwolves.
Party chair Jennifer Horn didn't call on Guinta to resign in those precise words, but more or less said exactly that, declaring that the congressman's "credibility has been irreparably damaged" and adding that she "hope[s] that Frank can recognize this and act accordingly." Even before Horn's announcement, Guinta looked like he was in for a tough primary if he went ahead with his plans to seek re-election. Party leaders have touted former University of New Hampshire business school dean Dan Innis and on Wednesday, he expressed interest in running for this seat regardless of what Guinta does. Guinta defeated Innis 50-40 in the 2014 primary, so there's little love lost between them. Democrats are going to target this swing district regardless of what Guinta does, but they'd love it if he could find some way to hold onto the GOP nomination next year.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick just rolled out her first two notable endorsements of the campaign, from ex-Reps. Ron Barber and Harry Mitchell, both of whom she served with in the House. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, another Democrat, also hasn't ruled out a Senate bid (and even sounded a bit miffed that Kirkpatrick unexpectedly made the jump), but this is a good example of what a first-mover advantage can mean in politics.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: On Thursday, Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz kicked off her campaign against Republican Gov. Mike Pence. Ritz, who is the only Democrat to hold statewide office aside from Sen. Joe Donnelly, has had a bad relationship with Pence ever since she took office in 2013. The two came into conflict over education policies, and Pence and the GOP legislature have worked to diminish Ritz's influence. Pence recently signed a bill that would require the state education board to elect its chair starting in 2017 rather than allow the superintendent to automatically get the post, and it's no surprise that Ritz decided to take her chances in a gubernatorial race rather than seek re-election to a weakened office.
Ritz will face 2012 nominee John Gregg and state Sen. Karen Tallian in the primary. Democrats were initially pessimistic about beating Pence, and Ritz previously planned to run for a second term as superintendent. But Pence posted weak poll numbers after the national backlash over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and Team Blue is feeling a lot more confident about their chances next year. But Indiana is still a conservative state, and Pence and his allies are hoping that Democrats bloody themselves up in the primary.
House:
• CA-36: Indio Mayor Lupe Ramos Watson's race against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz came to an end this week as she quietly dropped out. Jesse Marx takes a look at what happened at the Desert Sun, and it just appears that Ramos Watson just did not run anything resembling an organized campaign. While Ramos Watson blames local Republican clubs for refusing to distribute her literature, those clubs say she never reached out to them. A source close to her also says Ramos Watson only raised $15,000, an anemic sum for a competitive election.
On paper, this Inland Empire seat is competitive, with Obama only carrying it 51-48. However, Ruiz is a tough campaigner, and he easily held on during last year's GOP wave. So far, local Republicans don't have any top-tier replacements, and it sounds like they're not optimistic about finding someone: One GOP club head says he's been approaching potential candidates since the beginning of the year and they've all declined. There is some interest in conservative radio host Rich Gilgallon, who say he would consider. However, Gilgallon or anyone else is going to have a lot to prove if they're going to give Ruiz a real race here.
• NY-19: After spending millions of his own money only to lose 65-35 last year, it always seemed very unlikely that Democrat Sean Eldridge would seek this Upstate New York swing seat again. And sure enough, Eldridge told Vanity Fair that he's "not going to run again," adding that "[f]ew things have such a clear ending as a campaign." The man who beat Eldridge, Republican Rep. Chris Gibson, is retiring, but so far neither party has a credible candidate.
• PA-09: Could the GOP primary in this safely red central Pennsylvania district turn into a conservative proxy war over the Export-Import Bank? In mid-May, the Club For Growth announced a combined $250,000 ad buy hitting four Republican lawmakers for supporting the Ex-Im Bank, which they claim "spends billions of tax dollars on a handful of giant corporations." Three of those members, Utah's Rob Bishop and Chris Stewart and West Virginia's David McKinley, look secure in the primary (and the Utah congressmen quickly changed their tune on the bank and got the Club to leave them alone). But Pennsylvania's Bill Shuster, the powerful House Transportation chair, is a much more interesting target.
Shuster only took 53 percent in his 2014 primary against two unmemorable opponents, and wealthy 2012 Senate nominee Tom Smith is talking about opposing him this time. Shuster also drew some bad headlines after he was accused of fast-tracking a bill supported by a lobbyist he was dating. It's early in the cycle, but Shuster could very well have a tough primary, and the last thing he'll want is the Club taking potshots at him.
But Shuster is getting some help from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which ran a spot thanking him for backing the Ex-Im bank. There's no word on the size of the buy and this ad will definitely be forgotten by the time the primary comes around. But the Chamber's support is a sign that Shuster will have air support next year when he might badly need it. We'll see if the Club singles him out for defeat, but they would love to take down someone as senior as Shuster if they think that they'll get a more ideologically pure replacement.
Other Races:
• Nashville Mayor: Unlike most of his rivals, former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox has yet to air any spots. However, the wealthy Republican is now changing that with a $1 million ad buy that will last until the Aug. 6 non-partisan primary. Fox's commercial is from the "candidate gives generic speech as dramatic music plays and a few images and text appear" genre.
Grab Bag:
• Redistricting: It's no secret that gerrymandering has given the GOP a massive firewall when it comes to defending their House majority. Even in 2012, when Democratic House candidates won more votes than Republicans, Team Blue came nowhere close to flipping the chamber. In a new piece, Stephen Wolf demonstrates how gerrymandering cost the Democrats critical seats in the Midwest, and creates non-partisan maps that would better reflect the will of voters while keeping communities intact.
• United Kingdom: Great Britain's left took an unexpected beating in last month's general election, which led to the departure of Labour Party leader Ed Miliband. That means Labour will soon pick a new leader, as will the much smaller Liberal Democrats, who were very nearly shattered. David Beard takes us inside both party's campaigns to pick their new chiefs, and also explores the Scottish National Party's plans for greater autonomy from the rest of the UK. Why does this matter? The next British elections won't take place until 2020, but barring an unexpected change downstream, whoever Labour chooses will serve as the center-left's candidate for prime minister five years from now.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Taniel.